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Re: In search for Holy Grail
An interesting read Grga .. if I may be so bold in my own obviously simple way, I would like to go right back to the start of the thread and look at a few of the things that you have talked about.
Firstly, I'm not critising or anything, I just want to help, so here are my thoughts.
Any staking plan or money management system must reflect the method of betting that you are following, you then have to gauge this against your own tolerance for losing runs and decide if you can make betting pay or not. Staking alone won't make you profitable but it should assist you emotionally.
Personally, I don't use staking plans, I bet to level stakes on every bet. And I only bet on horse racing.
What you have to do with any staking plan is simulate how the staking plan is likely to perform against your likely selections .. you can do this using a montecarlo simulation .. what this basically does is compare each mean against one another, by simulating a betting campaign. You have to work out what the likelihood of your bank going bust is as a percentage against a fixed target of say 1000 bets or doubling the initial bank size.
Once this exercise is mastered and you have tweaked the inputs you will soon realise that no matter how you stake your returns will always be the same as if you had backed level stakes on each selection. The effect of staking on your bank is to create larger fluctuations than you would have had without it.
I would suggest that a consistent approach over a long period of time is the key. So long as you are not chasing your losses.
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In search for Holy Grail
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