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11-07-2005, 18:36
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OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
This strategy is based on SOCCER LIVE BETTING.
Basically the scheme is to bet in NO MORE GOALS in the match last minutes.
Since beginning May until now my account has increased from 60 € to 275€, more than 300 %.
I made several researches and I concluded that BetFair is the best booker for this strategy, as Live Betting is aloud until the referee’s final whistle while many other bookers don’t.
I made some statistic investigations with last seasons 15 European championships, I can post it if you want, and I had the following results:
Average of Scored Goals per match: 2,64
Goal % from 80 minutes: 13,0 %
Goal % from 85 minutes:34,2 %
Probability to score one goal from 85 min: 21,0 %
Probability to score one goal in a single minute: 2,8 %
Favourable Odd to bet from 85 minutes: 1,36
From 85 minutes on I bet on the favourable odd according to the next table:
__________________________________________________ _
Minute | 85 .| 86 .| 87 .|. 88 .|. 89 .|. 90 .|. 91 .| 92 .| 93 .| 94 .|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Odd | 1,40 |1,36 |1,32 |1,28 |1,24 |1,20 |1,16 |1,12 |1,08 |1,04 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t follow this table rigidly. These values are only indicative values.
On BetFair IN-PLAY match options I choose the best odd from:
- NEXT GOAL - NO GOAL
- CORRECT SCORE - match score at that time
- UNDER 2,5 GOALS - only if there were 2 match goals until that time.
The three options means the same (“under 2,5 goals” only in that specific situation), no more goals in the match, so I pick the best odd if I fell it is favourable according to the indicative values in the table above. My stake is about 15% of the total money account.
BetFair don’t show the time and match result in real time. To help me in this strategy I always open BetandWin website in a new window. In this booker there is also Live Betting, but not so good odds. Here I can follow time and match result in real time as added time after 90 minutes. It is a great tool to use in this “No Goal” strategy.
Usually there are about 3 In-Play BetFair matches per day (on weekends more). I think in August, when the European season starts, will be much more live betting available.
We can check the In-Play games schedule for all week on the website left column. Soccer - Coupons - Midweek/Weekend In-Play games.
Normally I don’t lose time studying and analysing the match. Just turn on the computer at about 83 match minutes and bet from 85 minutes… then, until the end of the match, is pure adrenaline!! 
If you are not yet registered in www.BetFair.com you can get a 30€ (20£) subscription bonus. When you fill the form enter in the “Refer and Earn” camp the following code: XXXXXXXXX. After a 30€ /20£ first deposit you will get another 30€ bonus in your BetFair account and also me will get 30€ bonus.With 30€ you get 60€ (in one or maximum two weeks the bonus will be available).
New users registering with your code earn 30€ bonus after first 30€ deposit and you earn other 30€.
Good Bets and No Goals… after 85 minutes!
Greetings,
Felisberto
Last edited by kompressaur : 13-07-2005 at 20:26.
Reason: The Daily Punt has a betfair link Felis. im sure u understand :k
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11-07-2005, 18:36
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
There is an In-Play game at this time..
Sundsvall v Djurgardens (Swedish Championship) are playing since 18h (London time).
At about 19:35h I will get tuned…
After I will post what time and odd I made my bet.
See U
Felisberto
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11-07-2005, 19:01
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
Hi nogoal,
Very interesting post - I remember having a look at this myself sometime back. I haven't got the figures to hand, but I seem to remember that it was about 1 chance in 6 that a game would have a goal in the last 5 minutes - maybe I'm not remembering very well!!
Anyway - I'm interested in your table and stats - where exactly did you collect your goal-times data from? And have you just added all the results together from all the different leagues - I only looked ae EPL myself, perhaps there is not much of a difference in national leagues for this stat?
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11-07-2005, 19:02
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Onion Boy
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
Welcome to The Daily Punt, nogoal. Interesting stuff and I look forward to reading more.
Djurgardens scored very late on I see.  |
11-07-2005, 19:19
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Senior Member
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
sound interesting - but I could see myself losing money on this one 
will be following it though - good luck |
13-07-2005, 20:06
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
I will start with 300 units
BET 1
INITIAL BANK: 300
DATE/UK TIME: 11Jul05 – 18h
MATCH: Swedish Championship - Sundsvall 1 (78min) - Djurgardens 1 (93min)
BET MINUTE: 85 min
BET ODD: 1,45
REAL ODD*: 1,43
STAKE: 35
RESULT: Lost
COMMENTS: Bad luck… 3 minutes added and Djugardens scores at 93min and 30 seconds… but 1,43 odd is very good. With this odds, in long term, I will get a very good profit
NEW BANK: 265
*Real Odd: Betfair takes a 5% commission on your profit winnings. So a odd of 1,45 (45% profit) is a real odd of 1,43 (45% profit X 95% = 43% profit)
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13-07-2005, 20:07
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Junior Member
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
In-Play game at this time
19:45h (UK time)
Liverpool vs TNS
Let’s see..
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13-07-2005, 20:29
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Got AIDS?
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
1.50 on betfair for there to be no next goal mate. It looks good the way the game is finishing at the minute.
Although i wouldnt be surprised to see Liverpool pop up with a third in the dying seconds. |
14-07-2005, 13:29
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demented c-u-n-
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
spot on kiko. Well more spot on than your 3p comment. Keep plugging away Nogoal
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14-07-2005, 18:47
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Junior Member
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
BET 2
INITIAL BANK: 265
DATE/UK TIME: 13Jul05 – 19:45h
MATCH: Champions League Qualification – Liverpool 3 (8, 21, 89min) vs TNS 0
ADDED TIME: 2 min
BET MINUTE: 87 min
BET ODD: 1,68
REAL ODD*: 1,65
STAKE: 35
RESULT: Lost
NEW BANK: 230
*Real Odd: Betfair takes a 5% commission on your profit winnings. So a odd of 1,68 (68% profit) is a real odd of 1,65 (68% profit X 95% = 65% profit)
BET 3
INITIAL BANK: 230
DATE/UK TIME: 13Jul05 – 19:45h
MATCH: Champions League Qualification – Liverpool 3 (8, 21, 89min) vs TNS 0
ADDED TIME: 2 min
BET MINUTE: 90 min
BET ODD: 1,30
REAL ODD*: 1,29
STAKE: 35
RESULT: Win
NEW BANK: 240,15
COMMENTS: Liverpool was pushing hard to score 3 rd goal. Odds were very high.. At 85 minutes there were 1,98 No Goal odds… No luck again… Anyway pick up a 1,30 odd immediately after the goal.. Luck will come 
Next post I will include all statistics that support this strategy.
At this time started Mainz vs MIKA match (19:30h UK time).
See you soon..
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14-07-2005, 20:56
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Junior Member
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
BET 4
INITIAL BANK: 240,15
DATE/UK TIME: 14Jul05 – 19:30h
MATCH: Uefa Cup – Mainz 4 (8, 35, 58, 67 min) vs FC MIKA 0
ADDED TIME: 3 min
BET MINUTE: 85 min
BET ODD: 1,60
REAL ODD*: 1,57
STAKE: 35
RESULT: WIN
NEW BANK: 260,10
Next BetFair In-Play Games:
15Jul05
11h : Seongnam Ilhwa v PSV
16Jul05
11h: Sundowns v Sociedad
11h: Tottenham v Boca Juniors
18h: Liverpool v Leverkusen
17Jul05
16h: Malmo FF v Halmstads
20h: Benfica v Chelsea
18Jul05
11h: Boca Juniors v Sociedad
11h: Tottenham v Sundowns
17h: France U19 v England U19
19h: Serbia & M U19 v Germany U19
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16-07-2005, 14:52
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Junior Member
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
BET 5
INITIAL BANK: 260,10
DATE/UK TIME: 15Jul05 – 11:00h
MATCH: Peace Cup – PSV 2 (4, 23 min) Seongnam Ilhwa (11 min)
ADDED TIME: 4 min
BET MINUTE: 89 min
BET ODD: 1,20
REAL ODD*: 1,19
STAKE: 35
RESULT: WIN
NEW BANK: 266,75
Comments: 1,20 at 89min is nothing special, but for a friendly game I decided to take it, 2 – 1, game more a less decided. 89 min less profit, but also less risk.. Let’s see tomorrow games..
BET 6
INITIAL BANK: 266,75
DATE/UK TIME: 16Jul05 – 11:00h
MATCH: Peace Cup – Sundowns FC 1 (59min) vs Real Sociedad 0
ADDED TIME: 3 min
BET MINUTE: 87 min
BET ODD: 1,30
REAL ODD*: 1,29
STAKE: 35
RESULT: WIN
NEW BANK: 276,73
BET 7
INITIAL BANK: 276,73
DATE/UK TIME: 16Jul05 – 11:00h
MATCH: Peace Cup – Tottenham 2 (28, 32 min) Boca Juniors 2 (3, 70 min)
ADDED TIME: 2 min
BET MINUTE: 86 min
BET ODD: 1,30
REAL ODD*: 1,29
STAKE: 35
RESULT: WIN
NEW BANK: 286,71
Comments: Friendly pre season games.. At 85 min odds about 1,35.. a bit low… anyway I think these games are less dangerous than official ones.. players not in the better physical conditions, many substitutions, motivation to win not so big..
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17-07-2005, 02:16
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Junior Member
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
BET 8
INITIAL BANK: 286,71
DATE/UK TIME: 16Jul05 – 18:30h
MATCH: Friendly – Bayer Leverkusen 0 vs Liverpool 3 (25, 26, 56 min)
ADDED TIME: 0 min
BET MINUTE: 85 min
BET ODD: 1,40
REAL ODD*: 1,38
STAKE: 35
RESULT: WIN
NEW BANK: 300,01
Comments: Match without added time. If I knew it I would bet more in the last minute.. When the match finished, No Goal was at 1,17..
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17-07-2005, 02:26
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Grrrrrr
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
Are you looking at this purely on maths ? As in if I get X odds at Y minutes I will take it or do you consider course of the game....open game, defensive game, slow pace etc as well ? I must admit to not being a fan of low odds, I'd much rather be laying than backing, but value is value. If it should be 1.10 and you're getting 1.18 fair enough. Is comission all calculated in as well ?
Lots of questions yes.......er just being nosey I guess  |
17-07-2005, 03:07
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Onion Boy
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Re: OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
Quote:
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*Real Odd: Betfair takes a 5% commission on your profit winnings. So a odd of 1,68 (68% profit) is a real odd of 1,65 (68% profit X 95% = 65% profit)
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OVER 300 % PROFIT IN 2 MONTH
