This, Stat & The Other

[pydoom]

(Yes, it's a shit title but I couldn't think of anything else so there )

I have been using various stats to experiment with some of the other markets that are regularly offered on football games other than over 1x2, handicaps, over/under 2.5 and HT/FT.

It has been going quite well so far, I think, but my record-keeping is a bit of a mess and I want to record these bets somewhere separate so I can see for sure whether I am wasting my time or not.

In my previous threads in here I have tried to lay out the reasoning behind each bet and it has taken so long that I ended up having time to only post a couple - I do tend to blather on and on sometimes. So, this time I am only going to post the bets and and keep a running total.

There really is not a lot to say about these bets anyway because they are all just based on the stats - I am not including corners or bookings here because I am almost solely doing these on spreads at the moment and so have a clear idea of their profitabilty, or lack of as seems to be the trend at the moment.

Anyway the bank is 100 pts and the first bets are below.

crawley v burton 1st half score 0-0 @ 2.75 5 pts
cowdenbeath v stirling albion over 3 goals @ 2.19 5 pts
sheffield wednesday v plymouth over 2.75 goals @ 2.43 5 pts
sheffield wednesday v plymouth goal/no goal: goal @ 1.65 10 pts

('goal' just means both teams score; 'no goal' means at least 1 of the teams does not score)

The over/under bets in here will generally be ones where you can find a different line to the standard 2.5.

[pydoom]

crawley v burton 1st half score 0-0 @ 2.75 5 pts
cowdenbeath v stirling albion over 3 goals @ 2.19 5 pts
sheffield wednesday v plymouth over 2.75 goals @ 2.43 5 pts
sheffield wednesday v plymouth goal/no goal: goal @ 1.65 10 pts

Loss of 3.5 pts on the night.

Bank 96.5.
Profit -3.5
Total Staked 25

[pydoom]

First of this weekend's bets and a whole lot of value in the Dutch game tomorrow because there are so many goals scored in general - hopefully not these 2 teams though, for the 1st half anyway.

emmen v haarlem 1st half score: 0-0 @ 3.2 - 10 pts
fc brussels v cercle brugge 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.75 - 5 pts

[pydoom]

Right I've decided to scrap the bank because it doesn't suit my style of betting to be so constricted, plus I am going to have a lot of bets and so either I would have to make the bank larger or re-adjust the stakes - much easier just to scrap it altogether. I will keep a record of the number of bets, total staked & profit/loss.

Also decided that I will include standard over/under 2.5 bets here and any corner bets that I like enough to do on the fixed odds as well as the spreads.

Some more for the next couple of days.

libourne v tours Both Teams To Score: Yes @ 1.95 - 8 pts
hartlepool v lincoln over 2.5 @ 2.1 - 5 pts
brno v budejovice 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.3 - 5 pts
antalyaspor v ankaraspor 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.65 - 5 pts
braga v beira mar HT 1x2: 2 @ 9.55 - 1 pt
braga v beira mar HT 1x2: X @ 2.5 - 4 pts
rapid v graz ak goal/no goal: goal @ 1.75 - 5 pts
naval v boavista goal/no goal: no goal @ 1.8 - 5 pts

[pydoom]

A few more to be going on with.

b. m'gladbach v hertha 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.625 - 5 pts
paderborn v rw essen 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.65 - 5 pts
pescara v modena 1st half score @ 2.2 - 5 pts
atalanta v parma 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.65 - 5 pts
horsens v silkeborg 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.6 - 5 pts
dundee utd v motherwell 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.625 - 8 pts
aberdeen v hearts 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.6 - 5 pts
getafe v recreativo 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.6 - 8 pts
betis v zaragoza 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.5 - 5 pts @ 2.2 - 5 pts

[pydoom]

I know this could get mighty ugly, but I have confidence

[pydoom]

emmen v haarlem 1st half score: 0-0 @ 3.2 - 10 pts
naval v boavista goal/no goal: no goal @ 1.8 - 5 pts
libourne v tours Both Teams To Score: Yes @ 1.95 - 8 pts
hartlepool v lincoln over 2.5 @ 2.1 - 5 pts

I had one fucking winner tonight and it was the only bet amongst dozens that I forgot to post up


Profit -31.5
Total Staked 53
(Number of bets 8)

[pydoom]

Working on the principle that if yo throw enough shit at the wall some of it will stick here are some more.

pescara v modena Goal/No Goal: no goal @ 1.9 - 10 pts
massese v pro sesto under 2 goals @ 1.862 - 5 pts
monza v venezia under 2 goals @ 1.826 - 5 pts
alloa v morton Goal/No Goal: Goal @ 1.62 - 10 pts
notts county v mansfield Goal / No Goal: Goal @ 1.86 - 5 pts
gimnastic v sevilla Goal/No Goal: Goal @ 2 - 8 pts
gimnastic v sevilla over 2.5 @ 2 - 5 pts


I think that is everything so far - hopefully nothing missed this time

[pydoom]

Some of the results so far.

fc brussels v cercle brugge 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.75 - 5 pts
notts county v mansfield Goal / No Goal: Goal @ 1.86 - 5 pts
dundee utd v motherwell 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.625 - 8 pts
aberdeen v hearts 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.6 - 5 pts
alloa v morton Goal/No Goal: Goal @ 1.62 - 10 pts
b. m'gladbach v hertha 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.625 - 5 pts
pescara v modena Goal/No Goal: no goal @ 1.9 - 10 pts
monza v venezia under 2 goals @ 1.826 - 5 pts
pescara v modena 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.2 - 5 pts

Am I glad that no-one backed any of these with actual cold, hard cash :wasntme

[pydoom]

Let's continue with this post-mortem then

brno v budejovice 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.3 - 5 pts
antalyaspor v ankaraspor 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.65 - 5 pts
rapid v graz ak goal/no goal: goal @ 1.75 - 5 pts
paderborn v rw essen 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.65 - 5 pts
atalanta v parma 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.65 - 5 pts
horsens v silkeborg 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.6 - 5 pts
getafe v recreativo 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.6 - 8 pts
betis v zaragoza 1st half score: 0-0 @ 2.5 - 5 pts @ 2.2 - 5 pts
massese v pro sesto under 2 goals @ 1.862 - 5 pts
gimnastic v sevilla Goal/No Goal: Goal @ 2 - 8 pts
gimnastic v sevilla over 2.5 @ 2 - 5 pts

Things are still going well then - still got one game to go and I still have high hopes

[pydoom]

Another winner - wow

braga v beira mar HT 1x2: 2 @ 9.55 - 1 pt
braga v beira mar HT 1x2: X @ 2.5 - 4 pts

So, that is -94.57 pts, which brings us to a grand total of -126.07 pts

Profit -126.07 pts
Total Staked - 162 pts
Number of bets - 28

Now this has not started very well, I think that much is plain, but I shall continue - after all it is only money.

[pydoom]

I think I should split the games up because its the HT draw/0-0 bets that I'm most unsure about and so it would be good to see those results on their own and the goal/no goal type bets which I have been doing for a while with some success, then I will group everything else together.

HT Bets: -

Profit -63 pts
Staked 86 pts
Strike Rate 3/16

Goal/No Goal or similar: -

Profit -54.5 pts
Staked 61 pts
No. of Bets 1/8

Other Bets: -

Profit -25.69
Staked 30 pts
No. of Bets 1/5(+ 1 push)

These figures are now accurate, unlike in the last post which are utterly wrong and should be ignored.

I am also going to switch to fixed profit staking as I think it would be more appropriate, so all future bets will be to win 5 pts. This will also make the record-keeping a bit more complicated which is always good

I know these changes may only be like polishing a turd, but still.

[pydoom]

After the weekends carnage I have tried to tighten up my criteria so I have fewer bets, so let's see how it goes.

frosinone v pescara over 2.25 @ 2.02 4.91 pts

I have a couple more, but this match kicks off soon so I thought I better post it on it's own - did think about waiting till after the match and then at least I would have some more winners :wasntme

[pydoom]

Just one more as I got bored looking for anything else.

wilhemshaven v kickers emden goal/no goal: goal @ 1.65 7.69 pts

[pydoom]

frosinone v pescara over 2.25 @ 2.02 4.91 pts
wilhemshaven v kickers emden goal/no goal: goal @ 1.65 7.69 pts

Fucking Serie B, I knew it would be dull after all the goals at the weekend - but I couldn't leave it alone

HT Bets: -

Profit -63 pts
Staked 86 pts
Strike Rate 3/16

Goal/No Goal or similar: -

Profit -49.5 pts
Staked 68.69 pts
No. of Bets 2/8

Other Bets: -

Profit -30.6
Staked 34.91 pts
No. of Bets 1/6(+ 1 push)


Right I am going to try and keep the bets grouped together by category, so first all the HT bets.

These are all HT Correct Score: 0-0.

ionikos v paok @ 2.7 - 2.94 pts
iraklis v larisa @ 2.4 - 3.57 pts
xanthi v panionios @ 2.25 - 4 pts
leira v setubal @ 2.65 - 6.06 pts
kayserispor v antalyaspor @ 2.65 - 6.06 pts
st gallen v young boys @ 2.875 - 4 pts