SPL Overs/Unders system

[Beanie]

Overs/Unders betting remains a bit of a melon scratcher for me, so I've been having a bash at a few spreadsheets which attempt to predict the fair odds for goals betting.

One of the more promising from the modest amount of backtesting i've done is one which calculates weighted averages of goals scored and conceded both home and away for the season(weighted to place greater emphasis on more recent matches, and only including home stats for the home teams and away for the visiting sides), as well as a weighted average of goals involved in encounters between the two teams over the past 2 seasons(weighted to place greater emphasis on more recent matches), and takes a weighted average of all these factors(placing greater emphasis on both the historical games and the goals conceded stats) to produce a no. of goals prediction and hopefully, eventually, calculated fair odds.

The theory behind it all(goals conceded stats being more important than goals scored stats) can wait for another day.

It's not the most mathematically or theoretically robust model, and could probably do with a bit of tweaking and further testing, but lets give it a run this weekend.

I've only got the sheet set up for the SPL but could easily do more on it, although sticking all the data in would take the best part of a couple of hours for one of the English leagues so I'll swerve that until I have more time.

Also, at the moment ive not quite got the odds generation sorted - need to play about with that a bit, so I'll just go with the recomendations it gives based on odds available. Without further ado...

Two sets - one level stakes(2pts for all bets mentioned), one with bigger bets for bigger perceived edge and vice versa(1pts, 2pts and 3pts). Goal lines are 2.5 unless otherwise stated.

Dundee U v Dunfermline...No Bet
Falkirk v Killie...3pts Over @ 2.07 with 10bet
Hibs v Motherwell...3pts Over @ 1.80 with Interwetten
Rangers v Hearts...3pts Under @ 1.88 with Pinnacle
St Mirren v Aberdeen...1pt Under @ 1.75(only 3Bwin offering this, but Betfair should oblige at 1.79 which will be equivalent odds of just over 1.75 after commission)
Caley v Celtic...2pts Under @ 2.11 with 10bet

This is very much just a paper trial at the moment - not one to put your hard earned on.

[Mahatma]

I agree with all your selections Beanie, i use a similar method and my bets this weekend were

Dundee Utd-Dunfermline <2.5 1.862
Falkirk-Kilmarnock Home -0.25 1.98
Hibs-Motherwell >2.5 1.787
Rangers-Hearts <2.5 1.88
St Mirren-Aberdeen <2.25 1.926

You could add conditions to your spreadsheet which will adjust the percentages slightly. They could be

fatigued (if game played in last 3 days) = 0.05 less goals
no pressure (if end of season is near and team is clear of relegation and can't be promoted) = +0.1 goals
relegation dogfight (two teams who are only a few points off relegations and are likely to play a safe, defensive game) = -0.1 goal

and so on. I haven't done any work finding out what effects pressure or relegation battels have so the above is a guess.

[Beanie]

Cheers for that Mahatma - I'll certainly add in some fatigue/team news/game importance factors eventually but for the moment I'll keep it purely stats based.

This weekends results:

Originally Posted by Beanie

Dundee U v Dunfermline...No Bet
Falkirk v Killie...3pts Over @ 2.07 with 10bet
Hibs v Motherwell...3pts Over @ 1.80 with Interwetten
Rangers v Hearts...3pts Under @ 1.88 with Pinnacle
St Mirren v Aberdeen...1pt Under @ 1.75
Caley v Celtic...2pts Under @ 2.11 with 10bet

Level stakes:

Staked: 10pts
Returned: 7.26pts

Graded stakes:

Staked: 12pts
Returned: 7.39pts

[Beanie]

Dang...forgot to update the sheet and need to go out now, but will do it retrospectively tonight and see what it would have gone for.

[Beanie]

Sheet is going for 2.76 goals in the Killie v Rangers game, which is perhaps worth just a small bet...

1pt Killie v Rangers Over 2.5 @ 1.96

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

1pt Killie v Rangers Over 2.5 @ 1.96

This weekends picks:

Aberdeen v Celtic - No Bet
Dunfermline v Killie - 3pts Over 2.5 @ 2.18 with 10Bet (Sheet says huuuuge value here)
Hearts v St Mirren - 3pts Over 2.5 @ 2.07 with Canbet
Motherwell v ICT - 3pts Over 2.5 @ 2.20 with 10Bet
Dundee United v Hibs - 2pts Over 2.5 @ 1.94 with 10Bet
Rangers v Falkirk - 2pts Under 2.5 @ 2.34 with 10Bet

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Aberdeen v Celtic - No Bet
Dunfermline v Killie - 3pts Over 2.5 @ 2.18 with 10Bet (Sheet says huuuuge value here)
Hearts v St Mirren - 3pts Over 2.5 @ 2.07 with Canbet
Motherwell v ICT - 3pts Over 2.5 @ 2.20 with 10Bet
Dundee United v Hibs - 2pts Over 2.5 @ 1.94 with 10Bet
Rangers v Falkirk - 2pts Under 2.5 @ 2.34 with 10Bet

Erm...not much to say there really.

I suppose the only bright spot is that if I've got a sheet that can pick losers then I've got a sheet that can pick winners. Early days tho.