Psychological Systems

[Beanie]

Something I'm getting more and more interested in of late is the psychology behind sport - whether its a side who get complacent when in the lead or a player who hits that ace when match point down, it plays a part in every sport and in more ways that we can probably hope to understand.

We could sit and pour over stats all day, but the bookies are looking at the same thing. Are they giving much consideration to psychology involved? Probably not, and perhaps there is an edge there.

Golden question is then how to profit from this, or how to develop some sort of system to investigate further. I've got a few thoughts and a few different systems which I'd like to try in the fullness of time, but I'll start with a relatively simple one which I'll detail in the next post.

[Beanie]

System 1 then - The Erratic Performer System(catchy huh? ):

Nice and simple - whether thats a good or bad thing I don't know but we'll find out.

Its based on erratic players - those that are as likely to upset a big favourite as they are to bottle it against an underdog. It's often said about the Scottish football team - they make good underdogs but poor favourites, for whatever reason.

Is the mindset that contributes to this(if it exists) reflected in the odds, or will the prices just get stuck somewhere in the middle as the stats show up a mixed, inconsistent record?

To test, I'll select as many teams/individuals from virtually any sport that appear to possess the ability to upset and disappoint in equal measure, and simply lay them when they are (significant) favourite, and back them when (significant) underdog.

Compiling such a list will take a bit of time to sift through the historical stats(all suggestions welcome) but I'll devote some time to it over the next few days and add these qualifying teams/individuals to this thread.

Not a strict system, but once the list is compiled I'll try to define the rules a little more.

[wazik]

Like you say its hard to devise some sort of system to indicate teams/players that bottle it or give that little bit extra when under pressure.

I am no darts expert but I have been watching the darts at work for the last week or so and the psychological aspect of it seems similar in a way to snooker.

When one player is on fire you can really see it affecting the other. For example today in the match between Webster and Havenga, I cant remember which set it was in but Havenga was hitting everything and you could see Webster had no answer and had basically given up on the set and was going into recovery mode, just trying to keep him under pressure and get it together for the next one. At the time Webster was ahead so he could kinda afford to give it up. He did get it together and then went on to win the game so even though you could say at that point hes not going to win the set and make a bet accordingly you have to be careful as some players will turn it around and some wont. Like I said its similar in snooker when one player is visibly frustrated by not getting a chance. I am not sure where I am going with this in regards to working out a bet from it maybe for snooker or darts you could spot the type of player who does get frustrated for a while then like Webber today comes back from it. To win next frame or next set for example?

Intrested to see how the system goes [img]images/smilies/thumb%281%29.GIF[/img]

[Beanie]

What I take from your post waz is that psychological and emotional responses during matches can vary dramatically and are possibly then a tricky thing to try and second guess. I agree - its tricky to explain how(and its happened quite a few times in the darts this week) a player goes 3-0 up in sets, gets shot to bits and brought back to 3-3, but somehow steels themselves to win the decider(presumably as a healthy outsider given the momentum of the match.)

Its something I'm very much bearing in mind and will hopefully get onto some in play systems in the near future. Given that this thread is attempting to predict the unpredictable tho I'm not confident enough to trust my snap judgements on it at the moment, so I'll be starting with a system based on end results.

Like you though I was struck by the psycholoical aspect to the darts - how an otherwise good player starts chucking his arrows inches wide under pressure, and it was that that finally motivated me to take this a bit more seriously.

[ONEDUNME]

Don't know if either of you watched the snooker final last weekend but Stephen Hendry went from being one of the world's best to someone who couldn't even pot the ball of the black spot.

Psychology definitely plays its part in all sports. Difficult to know how to harness it to a betting advantage though.

[rcgills]

Don't really think this fits into your system, not this one anyway, although it's not a million miles away, so I'll tell you anyway. Gillingham seem to have a thing about not being able to hang on to leads away from home, with late goals being a particular thing with us. To give you some examples from this season, we went from 2-0 up in 14 minutes to lose 4-2 at Bradford (Bradford scored in 82nd and 92nd minutes), from 3-0 up to 3-3 at Orient (Orient's goals in the 77th, 85th and 88th), and from 3-1 up to 4-3 down at Crewe (Crewe scored in the 88th and 93rd).

Having said that, in recent weeks we've actually turned a few games in our favour in the closing minutes recently, and we held on to a 3-2 lead at Tranmere for 48 minutes at the weekend, so maybe things are turning. Which wouldn't be much good for your system . Don't know, maybe HT/FT 1/2 and 2/1 swings are worth looking into?

[Beanie]

Yeah thats the sort of thing I'm looking for gills so I've noted down your bunch of shitters as one to look into(I've got the same for my bunch of shitters at home ).

I remember the Hendry final well ODM - i'll look into the pressure situations bets in another system.

For this one I was having a look at Marat Safin in the tennis - temperamental player who is brilliant when he's on it and not interested when he's not. Having said that he was consistent early on last season, although did then throw up his usual few horror shows - the 6-1 6-4 defeat to world no 512 Wesley Whitehouse being the highlight.

[mrmuzeman]

Xavier Malisse is a up/down player from memory

[Beanie]

Cheers muze - keep em coming.

Ideally I'm looking for 2 way bets on individuals for this system to keep it straightforward - snooker, darts, tennis the main 3 I guess, although I'm more than keen to include teams with interesting trends.

[cains]

hmm.. Had AGF Aarhus, but thats danish soccer, for a team that usely put in a decent effort and win at home against the big teams, but then playing home against the worst of the worst team, they loose by several goals..

[Hippy Dave]

I was interested in teams who came from behind at HT to win a few years back, but not sure whether it was profitable or not. Thought they might be likely to carry momentum into the next match. Definitely worth looking into though.

[Seen]

Beanie - I started a couple of posts on this subject (using football betting) around a year ago, you might be interested in them...

The psychological effect in football

The pyschological effect in football (revisited)

[Beanie]

Cheers Seen - infact I remember you Middlesborough punt very well.

Anyway, where was I?

I've got half a mind to include Andy Murray in this given his erratic serve, but he does tend to put away the poorer players quite comfortably even if serving poorly.

Tennis wise I'll start off with Safin, Mardy Fish, Gael Monfils and Malisse - Safin's result are becoming a little more consistent but there's still a question mark over his temperament. The rest have shown an ability to beat the better players just as readily as they lose to no hopers.

Dave/Muze - any hints as to any snooker players who might fit the criteria?

I toyed with the idea of including football teams(using asian handicaps) but its probably best to leave this just to individuals. The psychology of one player is hard enough to guage let alone the psychology of 11.

Anyway i'll start with these 4, maybe adding some more this weekend.

[Danq]

Interesting and worth looking into my pals nephew used to play snooker glasgow boy pal of J Higgins , i remember he made the qualification for some tourney and got gubbed , he was a capable player think he beat Neil Foulds in some tourney and was on tv a couple of times but his dad told my pal to bet against him in one particular tourney saying he was a choker . As the two players came out you could see the diference think it was Nigel Bond he played , the boy came out head down and just sat in his chair nervously, needless to say he got whacked, prob not much between them but his bottle went. There is pro punters who watch out for body language Golf tennis darts snooker it would pay to watch out for this especially when up with leaders or near semi final stage.

[Beanie]

Cheers Danq...let's see how we go.

Level 5pt stakes:

Risk 5pts Lay Malisse v Scheuttler @ 1.31 to win 16.14pts

Don't think any of the others are playing this week.