Psychological Systems

[Beanie]

Malisse loses

I'll be laying him against Spadea aswell(he still went through his Round Robin group despite the loss to Scheuttler) but the market is pretty weak at the moment so I'll wait till the morning.

I'm going to add Kevin Kim to this system too - I had him marked down last week, but took him out at the last minute. However, his loss to American youngster Jesse Levine this week made me think again so he's in for now.

[ONEDUNME]

I thought he was great in "A fish called Wanda"

[Beanie]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaanyway.......

Risk 5pts Lay Malisse @ 1.41 v Spadea to win 12.2pts

[Beanie]

Malisse wins.

Hopefully a few of them will be playing this week to get things going.

[mrmuzeman]

Sweet my Malisse thing actually worked :loon Well 1 out of 2 will do.

[Beanie]

Don't sound so surprised Muse!!

Na who am I kidding? I fuckin amazed too

Problem with this is that the selections are gonna be just a handful a week so its difficult to test properly - in that case lets just hope for short term profit.

Gonna have a bit of an inverse selection too with Dementieva - she has such a woeful serve that whenever she is under pressure she crumbles pretty easily. Therefore rather than the other way around, I'll be backing her against weak opponents(given that her groundstrokes will ensure her serve is under little pressure, and lay her against good players who she often struggles against.

Another for the standard picks is Li Na...pretty inconsistent, winning some good matches this season against big players like Safina and pushing Hingis and Clijsters to 3 sets, while losing to others like Sam Stosur and Catalina Costano.

Gonna add Verdasco as well...generally he just loses these days but on his day can beat the big names...chalked up wins v Nalbandian, Djokovic and Gonzalez last year.

[Beanie]

Ooo, just saw Malisse beat James Blake today too where he was a bit of an underdog...well over 3s I think. This one's got legs.

Anyway none of the selections are playing this week so no bets...altho might get a few from the Davis Cup ties.

[ForzaLazio]

Just a word of warning mate on Malisse. Hes mentally tougher than he was a couple of years back. Not amazingly tougher but tougher all the same. Thats the second title hes won in the past month. Also the game against Scheuttler where he lost and was very low odds was a round robin match. And one of the circumstances he was in was that all he had to do was win 1 set in the match to qualify. He managed that and so for the last 2 sets I doubt he was at full throttle.


Agree with everyone of your other picks mate, especially Verdasco. Hes often very low against weaker players but hes got no brain and often you see him losing when 1/3 etc.


Keep up the good work mate.

[Beanie]

Cheers FL - I'll keep an eye on him. I'm gonna be using a bit of personal filtering with this(such as I did with Malisse not getting involved with some of his matches which worked out in some cases(his 2 other wins at shortish odds) and didn't in others(v Blake at bigger odds) so I can do some picking and choosing.

[ForzaLazio]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Cheers FL - I'll keep an eye on him. I'm gonna be using a bit of personal filtering with this(such as I did with Malisse not getting involved with some of his matches which worked out in some cases(his 2 other wins at shortish odds) and didn't in others(v Blake at bigger odds) so I can do some picking and choosing.

Cool

One to use for this I think could be JC Ferrero. Hes mentally one of the weakest Ive seen on the tennis tour. He was world number one and brilliant just 3 years ago and now he cant seem to win a match. Hes currently on a losing run of 6 in completed matches and his last defeat came against a player ranked 102nd and his price was 1/7 at alot of bookmakers(not sure on betfair).

Just some of his defeats last year(opposition ranking in bold) when Im sure his odds were very low:

R32

Guccione, Chris (AUS)

154

6-4 3-6 5-7

R32

Saretta, Flavio (BRA)

85

4-6 3-6

R32

Srichaphan, Paradorn (THA)

61

2-6 2-6

R32

Almagro, Nicolas (ESP)

77

7-6(3) 4-6 4-6

Q

Almagro, Nicolas (ESP)

57

3-6 3-6

R32

Portas, Albert (ESP)

122

6-7(4) 7-6(5) 5-7

R64

Gicquel, Marc (FRA)

79

5-7 3-6 4-6

R32

Zverev, Mischa (GER)

196

6-4 2-6 4-6

This year:

R64

Udomchoke, Danai (THA)

102

6-7 5-7 6-4 1-6

Grim viewing considering I am a fan of his!

[Beanie]

Cheers FL - I'll add him to the picks.

Missed one or two early this week, although not sure they would have been selections anyway. Maybe Verdasco earlier today who retired v Santoro.

Anyway:

Risk 5pts Lay Mardy Fish v Gabashvili @ 1.23 to win 21.76pts

Risk 5pts Lay Andy Murray v Kevin Kim @ 1.08 to win 62.55pts

Risk 5pts Lay Marat Safin v Oudsema @ 1.12 to win 41.7pts

Dementieva bet to follow as well.

[Beanie]

Murray and Safin win. Might aswell fire the next ones up incase I forget...

5pts Dementieva v Likhotseva @ 1.29

Risk 5pts Lay Safin v Lu @ 1.25 to win 20pts

[Beanie]

Fish wins, Dementieva retires(which means a loss given that she struggled her way 2 games into the 2nd set.

Risk 5pts Lay Mardy Fish v Sam Warburg @ 1.14 to win 35.75pts

[Beanie]

Arrr close but no cigar as Fish and Safin scrape through.

Risk 5pts Lay Safin v Becker @ 1.51 to win 9.81pts

Risk 5pts Lay Fish v Karlovic @ 1.77 to win 6.49pts

(that one is slightly higher odds than I might usually consider but Karlovic is a frustrating player to play against.)

[Beanie]

Better...Safin and Fish both lose.

Thats everyone out for this week then:

Staked - 50pts
Returned - 45.82pts