Draw-No-Bet Acca's

jtw1 · #1 (**permalink**) 01-09-2006, 18:32

Decided to start something that i've been looking at for a while now and thats looking at games where either side has a very strong record of not being beaten in that fixture over the previous meetings between the two.

e.g Tomorrow BOURNEMOUTH take on OLDHAM whom they have a record of
5-3-0 when at home ,since AUG 97.

Two Internationals grab the eye at decent odds and they are HUNGARY
[2-2-0 v NORWAY] and N. IRELAND [2-0-0 V ICELAND]
Although they have faced their opponents only a handful of times , both appear to be improving slightly and will have home advantage.

So i'm having a D-N-B treble on B'MOUTH, HUNGARY and N.IRELAND.
£10 returns £37.73 if all 3 win .[Sporting Odds]

Remember the beauty about this type of bet is that we only lose if one of teams loses , a draw makes the game void ,So if all 3 draw we get our money back , 2 draws and a win = a single win , 1 draw and 2 wins = a double.

Grga · #2 (**permalink**) 01-09-2006, 20:03

Interesting stuff jtw1.
Welcome to TDP and good luck.

jtw1 · #3 (**permalink**) 03-09-2006, 15:02

Maybe i'll drop the International games

from this system !!

However i still think that this could be profitable in the long run so i'll run it till the end of SEP and see where we stand.

jtw1 · #4 (**permalink**) 07-09-2006, 20:26

Games which look promising for Saturday

everton v LIVERPOOL 1-2-5
shrewsbury v LINCOLN 1-1-5
HALIFAX v gravesend 4-0-0
FIORENTINA v inter 4-4-1
AUXERRE v monaco 3-3-0
RENNES v sochaux 4-2-0

Will check out odds + any team news for tomorrow.

jtw1 · #5 (**permalink**) 08-09-2006, 20:49

BET 365 offer odds of 24.66 for the acca .

Imo the best treble of HALIFAX , FIORENTINA + LINCOLN = 7.08 [bet 365]

jtw1 · #6 (**permalink**) 10-09-2006, 13:07

AUXERRE

RENNES

LINCOLN

HALIFAX

FIORENTINA

LIVERPOOL

SUNDAY - Teams with previous record v todays opposition + d-n-b odds
-------

IRAKLIS 5-1-0 1.3
GENK 7-2-1 1.33
NUMANCIA 4-1-0 1.4
JABLONEC 2-4-0 1.57
R.BETIS 4-5-1 1.44
SOCIEDAD 4-3-1 2.2
G'TEPSPOR 4-3-0 1.36
ESPANYOL 1-6-3 3.75

All odds from Sporting Odds.

Acca [leaving out ESPANYOL] pays 155.24pts to a 10pt stake

jtw1 · #7 (**permalink**) 10-09-2006, 20:22

GENK 3-1

NUMANCIA 3-2

JABLONEC 2-1

R.BETIS 3-0

G'TEPSPOR 2-2

IRAKLIS 2-3

SOCIEDAD 1-3

ESPANYOL still to come

MONDAY
--------

Try a treble of STABAEK [5-0-0] , U.LEIRIA [6-0-0] and BRNO [3-3-0]

Pays 28.00 to a 10.00pt stake.

jtw1 · #8 (**permalink**) 15-09-2006, 19:16

BRNO

U.LEIRA

STABAEK

SATUDAYS BET
--------------

BRENTFORD 7-0-2 v b;mouth - 1.3
CLYDE 10-2-0 v ross co - 1.72
ELGIN at albion 1-6-5 - 1.3
AYR at alloa - 1.9

jtw1 · #9 (**permalink**) 16-09-2006, 21:46

CLYDE 3-0

AYR 1-0

BRENTFORD 0-0

ELGIN 1-3

BOLLOCKS!!!!

jtw1 · #10 (**permalink**) 17-09-2006, 11:19

Last chance SUNDAY

CHELSEA 9-0-1 v liverpool @ 1.28
LEVERKUSEN 0-1-5 at frankfurt @ 1.8
FREM 5-0-0 v herfolge @ 1.53
AARAU 5-0-1 v st gallen @ 2.0

jtw1 · #11 (**permalink**) 17-09-2006, 17:40

AARAU 4-0

CHELSEA 1-0

FREM 2-2

LEVERKUSEN

GOODBYE

Beanie · #12 (**permalink**) 17-09-2006, 19:06

Yeah not exactly looking promising for them jtw. Always worth looking into tho.

jtw1 · #13 (**permalink**) 26-01-2008, 19:46

Determined to get this working so i've turned to the RACING+FOOTBALL OUTLOOK [a weekly sports betting newspaper in the uk ] for assistance.

They publish a set of ratings called the OUTLOOK INDEX ,in which the print a set of ratings for each teams performance over a 6 week period .
They include ratings for HOME /AWAY perfromance and a TREND figure which i beleive is based on the strength of opposition they have faced in their league games.

It's those TREND figures i'm interested in .
Basically i mark off the top and bottom 4 rated [ jts inc] and check to see if a team with one of the top positive ratings is playing a team from the bottom 4 negative rated sides.

Last week the matches that fitted the bill were -

leeds v DONCASTER win odds = 4.33 score = 0-1
dag+red v GRIMSBY win odds = 2.25 score = 0-0
morton v QOS win odds = 2.5 score = 0-3
GENOA v atalanta win odds = 2.5 score = 3-2
le mans v BORDEAUX win odds = 2.5 score = 1-2
NAPOLI v lazio win odds = 2.0 score = 2-2
zaragoza V MURCIA win odds = 4.33 score = 3-1

lyon v LORIENT win odds = ? score = 2-0

rennes v NICE win odds = ? score = 1-1

This weeks -

chester v ROTHERHAM win odds = 2.1 score = 0-1
droylsden KIDDERMINSTER win odds = 1.7 score = 1-0

oxford v GRAYS win odds = 2.8 score = 0-0
mallorca v ATH MADRID win odds = 3.0
cagliari v NAPOLI win odds = 2.6

with 2 games to come on SUNDAY we have had 3 games in which a loss would have occured.
The theory in this system is that if a +ve rated side is playing a -ve rated then there should be a good chance of the +ve team gain at least a draw.
The problems are how many teams to have in one bet ? and is it worth betting on teams with D-N-B odds of less than 1.5 or over 3.0 ?
I'll be studying this week-ends results and will be back next week with some bets .
Could ASIAN HANDICAPS be abetter alternative ??

Please feel free to contribute any thoughts

jtw1 · #14 (**permalink**) 27-01-2008, 19:37

mallorca v ATH MADRID win odds = 3.0 1-0
cagliari v NAPOLI win odds = 2.6 2-1 Now that one hurt as NAPOLI were 1-0 up going into inj time , then lost not 1 but 2 goals [ 93rd+95th min] !!!!!

Its a funny old game

jtw1 · #15 (**permalink**) 31-01-2008, 18:30

A treble for the weekend with the adjusted system.

accrington v WYCOMBE - ODDS = 1.8
dag & red v STOCKPORT - ODDS = 1.8
fulham v ASTON VILLA - ODDS = 1.66