NBA totals difference system

[wnxsas]

This is an NBA totals difference system.

I will analyze the games, I'm going to calculate how much will be the probable totals and the probabilty of under/over.
I will collect the similar games in the current and previous seasons.
These games' odds are similar to the selected game's odds. The difference between the odds will be about 20%.
From these games I'll just leave them where the opponents are in a similar Under/Over category in the 2009/10 season.

Then I calculate the probability of Under/Over bookies totals.
From these games I calculate average totals.

I will measure the difference between my estimate and the bookies totals to work out my stake: (Probability is more the 60 %)

0-6 point difference : 5 units
7-12 point difference : 10 units
13-18 point difference : 15 units
19- point difference : 20 units

I hope to get a decent yield after 50 bets.

[wnxsas]

For example:

Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics Odds: 1.65 2.20 (bookies totals: 193.5)

1. step

Atlanta Hawks similar games in this and last seasons:

Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers 99 83 1.61
Atlanta Hawks L.A.Lakers 109 92 1.80
Atlanta Hawks Orlando Magic 86 84 1.78
Atlanta Hawks San Antonio Spurs 119 114 1.59
Atlanta Hawks Charlotte Bobcats 93 92 1.39
Atlanta Hawks Dallas Mavericks 103 111 1.62
Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 100 91 1.53
Atlanta Hawks Charlotte Bobcats 103 89 1.32
Atlanta Hawks Oklahoma City Thunder 91 94 1.37
Atlanta Hawks Phoenix Suns 102 101 1.41
Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 93 85 1.56
Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers 84 95 1.70
Atlanta Hawks Utah Jazz 96 83 1.36
Atlanta Hawks Orlando Magic 76 93 1.61
Atlanta Hawks Houston Rockets 105 103 1.32
Atlanta Hawks Portland TrailBlazers 99 95 1.59
Atlanta Hawks Denver Nuggets 125 100 1.64
Atlanta Hawks Washington Wizards 100 89 1.35
Atlanta Hawks Dallas Mavericks 93 98 1.67
Atlanta Hawks Utah Jazz 86 90 1.62
Atlanta Hawks Milwaukee Bucks 91 108 1.34
Atlanta Hawks Phoenix Suns 114 118 1.40


Boston Celtics similar games in this and last seasons:

Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics 90 105 2.03
Utah Jazz Boston Celtics 110 97 2.53
Dallas Mavericks Boston Celtics 93 102 2.51
Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics 86 84 2.02
Denver Nuggets Boston Celtics 114 105 2.57
Portland TrailBlazers Boston Celtics 76 96 2.30
L.A.Lakers Boston Celtics 86 87 2.27
Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 100 91 2.47
Orlando Magic Boston Celtics 96 94 2.40
Toronto Raptors Boston Celtics 107 114 1.79
Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 93 85 2.42
Miami Heat Boston Celtics 106 112 1.84
Phoenix Suns Boston Celtics 116 98 2.61
San Antonio Spurs Boston Celtics 83 90 1.91
Cleveland Cavaliers Boston Celtics 89 95 2.64
Dallas Mavericks Boston Celtics 89 87 2.30
Oklahoma City Thunder Boston Celtics 83 92 2.09

2. step

Atlanta Hawks similar Home Under/Over Category teams:

Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers
Memphis Grizzlies
New Orleans Hornets
New York Knicks
Orlando Magic
Washington Wizards
Minnesota Timberwolves
Atlanta Hawks
San Antonio Spurs
Boston Celtics
Cleveland Cavaliers
L.A.Lakers
Miami Heat
Oklahoma City Thunder
Milwaukee Bucks
Philadelphia 76ers

Boston Celtics similar Away Under/Over Category teams:

Houston Rockets
Sacramento Kings
Cleveland Cavaliers
Dallas Mavericks
L.A.Lakers
New Jersey Nets
Orlando Magic
Milwaukee Bucks
Chicago Bulls
Detroit Pistons
Portland TrailBlazers
Boston Celtics
San Antonio Spurs
Miami Heat
Washington Wizards

3. step

I'll just leave games where the opponents are in a similar Under/Over category.

Atlanta Hawks games

Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers 99 83 UNDER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks L.A.Lakers 109 92 OVER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Orlando Magic 86 84 UNDER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks San Antonio Spurs 119 114 OVER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Dallas Mavericks 103 111 OVER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 100 91 UNDER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 93 85 UNDER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers 84 95 UNDER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Orlando Magic 76 93 UNDER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Houston Rockets 105 103 OVER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Portland TrailBlazers 99 95 OVER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Washington Wizards 100 89 UNDER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Dallas Mavericks 93 98 UNDER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Milwaukee Bucks 91 108 OVER 193.5


Boston Celtics games

Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics 90 105 OVER 193.5
Dallas Mavericks Boston Celtics 93 102 OVER 193.5
Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics 86 84 UNDER 193.5
L.A.Lakers Boston Celtics 86 87 UNDER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 100 91 UNDER 193.5
Orlando Magic Boston Celtics 96 94 UNDER 193.5
Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 93 85 UNDER 193.5
Miami Heat Boston Celtics 106 112 OVER 193.5
San Antonio Spurs Boston Celtics 83 90 UNDER 193.5
Cleveland Cavaliers Boston Celtics 89 95 UNDER 193.5
Dallas Mavericks Boston Celtics 89 87 UNDER 193.5
Oklahoma City Thunder Boston Celtics 83 92 UNDER 193.5


4. step

Average totals: 189

5. step

UNDER/OVER Probability

UNDER 193.5 65.38 %
OVER 193.5 34.62 %

6. step

difference: 193.5 - 189 = 4.5 -> stake: 5 units Under 193.5

Score:

Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics 76 -99 (totals: 175 WON)

[wnxsas]

Home	Away	Under%	Over%	Pick:	Calc Average.	Stake:
Indiana Pacers	Cleveland Cav.	75.00 %	25.00 %	UNDER199.5	190.5	10
Washington W.	Philadelphia 76.	30.00 %	70.00 %	OVER196.5	208.5	10
Charlotte Bobcats	New York Knic.	73.68 %	26.32 %	UNDER205.5	200	5
Dallas Mavericks	Detroit Pistons	20.00 %	80.00 %	OVER190.5	202	10

[wnxsas]

Indiana Pacers	Cleveland Cav.	UNDER199.5	WON	+9.1
Washington W.	Philadelphia 76.	OVER196.5	WON	+9.1
Charlotte Bobcats	New York Knic.	UNDER205.5	LOST	-5
Dallas Mavericks	Detroit Pistons	OVER190.5	LOST	-10

[wnxsas]

Home	Away	Under%	Over%	Pick:	Calc.Average	Stake:
Boston Celtics	New Jersey	33.33 %	66.67 %	OVER189.5	196.5	10
Memphis Grizzlies	Detroit Pistons	35.29 %	64.71 %	OVER195.5	202	10