Football ratings system 10/11 season

[jtw1]

Starting the system which showed such promise in the latter half of last season .


I've given the EPL 4 games to settle down and hopefully that will have been enough time for things to start settling down .
The other leagues will also be taken into consideration after they have also played 4 games [ bit wary of Serie A , as it would appear strike action is on the horizon but i'll play it by ear]

Adjusted rules for the selection process

1- Team must have a GOONERS rating of at least 100
2- Team must have a h2h rating of at least 3.00


Star ratings
------------

* will highlight a game where Gooners = 100 - 180 and h2h = 3.00 - 3.99.
** will highlight a game where either Gooners is over 180 but h2h is under 4.00 or vice versa
*** will highlight a game where Gooners is 180+ AND h2h is 4.0+


I won't be sticking to hard and fast rules about which type of bet to use [Over 2.5 or -1 H'cap] and there will singles up to 4'somes depending on the odds available.

So without further waffling here's BET 1

** MAN U v liverpool Gooners = 174 , h2h = 4.00 odds = 1.7

The straight win odds on offer are enough for me .

Stake 10pts @ 1.7 [ all odds will be from Bet365 as they are generally the most generous from the mainstream bookies when it comes to football betting]

For reference the Over 2.5 odds are 2.1 and -1 odds are 2.75

[Bigkegman]

early jonah jt !!!

I'm on

[levskarq77]

Originally Posted by jtw1

1- Team must have a GOONERS rating of at least 100

Which site is the rating?

[jtw1]

Gooners Gambling Guide | Football Betting Tips | English & European football matches

[ONEDUNME]

I backed some winners from it last year as well so good luck mate

[traeth]

I like backing Gooners red ratings over 100 , good luck jtw

[jtw1]

A winning, if nail-biting , start !!!


MAN U - 3-2

Returns = 17pts

Starting Bank - 100pts
Current Bank - 107pts

As i posted earlier next week both EPL and the Bundesliga qualify for selections

[jtw1]

6 matches meet the criteria in this , the 1st full weekend of the system , but worryingly [from a personal point of view 3 of them are aways ]

***ARSENAL v west brom - Gooners = +230 , h2h = 6.25, odds = 1.22

**LIVERPOOL v sunderland - Gooners = +186 , h2h = 3.25 , odds = 1.44

**levante v REAL MADRID - -177 , -4.25 , odds = 1.25

*ath bilbao v BARCELONA - -128 , -3.25 , odds = 1.57


Sunday
-------

*MALLORCA v sociedad - +135 , +3.50 , odds = 2.05

*hercules v SEVILLE - -104 , -6.00 , odds = 2.2


Taking one game at a time lets start with ARSENAL.
An exceptionally high couple of ratings rating of 230 and 6.25 means this SHOULD be a 'banker ' home win but i'm tempted to go for the OVER 2.5 goals odds of 1.47 .
An even tastier 1.73 for the -1 handicap is available with Wm Hill [ majority of bookies go around 1.66 ]

LIVERPOOL look good at the 1.44 on offer for the straight home win.

1.25 for any away team is madness imo so i'll definately be going for the 1.65 for OVER 2.5 goals in the REAL MADRID game.

BARCELONA , while winning 3/4 this season , haven't impressed in doing so and only managed a 1-0 win against GIJON last week .
I'm going to hang fire on this one as the ratings are not that great for an away side - NO BET .

MALLORCA - this is what we're after , a home side with decent ratings at Sporting Odds.
Last season MALLORCA were nigh-on unbeatable at home and lets hope that record continues on Sunday @ odds of 2.05.

SEVILLE represent yet another away side and yet they have won both their away games this season while drawing both homes !!!
I think playing it safe with Draw-No-Bet at odds of 1.61 could be worthwhile here.

Summary
---------

Bet 2 - LIVERPOOL win / ARSENAL over 2.5 - 10pts

Bet 3 - MALLORCA win @ 2.05 - 10pts

Bet 4 - REAL MADRID over 2.5 / SEVILLE d-n-b - 10pts

Bet 5 - 10pt acca on all 6 finishing OVER 1.5 goals , this was a really profitable bet last season , @ odds of 7.43


I hope i've not tried to be clever here and not just went for straight win bets , but looking at the results from last season [and a personal dislike of betting aways ] i think i've tried to ensure a decent profit from each bet so it's

[ONEDUNME]

I'll join u on the Sunday games mate . the others are too short for me.

From what I remember from last season I made a profit from backing your picks at prices of 4/5 and above. I share ur dislike of aways by the way but if I can get two bets at these prices, one winner is going to get my money back and I like that.

I have no confidence in Liverpool so I'm rather glad they're unbackable for me. Good luck mate.

[jtw1]

Good Luck ODM

* Correction to the acca odds - they should be 3.31 not the 7.43 , made a mess of that but how i do not know , blame it on the bevvy !!!

[jtw1]

***ARSENAL v west brom 2-3

**LIVERPOOL v sunderland 2-2

**levante v REAL MADRID 0-0

*ath bilbao v BARCELONA 0-2

*MALLORCA v sociedad 2-0

*hercules v SEVILLE 2-0


Well , lets hope these kinds of weekends are rare !!

MALLORCA stopped it from being a TOTAL disaster with a good home win at the odds ,
We certainly got the goals at ARSENAL while not totally shocked at the LIVERPOOL result tbh.

More and more reasons to give up AWAYS altogether as that REAL result blew the 1.5 goals acca .


Statring Bank - 100pts
Current Bank - 87.50pts

[jtw1]

Thanks for the comments guys and i think i'll drop the aways altogether for the moment.
I'll keep posting the numbers but as far as betting is concerned ........

A disappointing weekend ahead with only 1 game meeting the criteria and even more worryingly it's REAL MADRID !!!

REAL MADRID v deportivo , Gooners - 202 , h2h - 4.25 , odds = 1.16

Considering the short odds i'm going for the Handicap [-1] @ 1.57

Deportivo have only scored twice in 5 games this season , while REAL haven't set the league on fire yet [ and Mourhino's tactics ] i'm hopeful they can find the net at least twice here

[jtw1]

6-1 to REAL brings back my faith in Jose !!!!

Starting Bank - 100pts

Current Bank - 93.20pts

Another bloody International weekend ahead

[jtw1]

Slightly better this weekend [just] but one is an away so i'll just be posting that for reference .

**MAN U v west brom Gooners +228 , h2h +3.50 , odds = 1.25

***MALLORCA v espanyol Gooners +203 , h2h +5.50 , odds = 1.9

*malaga v REAL MADRID Gooners -154 , h2h -3.50 , odds - 1.36


Always wary of games straight after the International week so i'm going for a straight win double of MAN U and MALLORCA .
Both are rated over 200 on Gooners numbers [100% last season , although Arsenal did fail v W Brom last time when rated over 200 ]

The odds of Over 2.5 goals is 1.47 in the Man u game and if they were under the 1.25 mark i'd go for that but as i say i'm wary after the Internationals .

10pt double MAN UTD / MALLORCA @ 1.25 / 1.9

[jtw1]

MAN U blow a 2 goal lead at home to draw 2-2

10pt win MALLORCA @ 1.9 on Sunday