Ratings vs Bookies Lines

[jeanbouin88]

Hi again,

See the other topic in this same section on Basketball...

i will try to make a profitable one for Soccer aswell...

[jeanbouin88]

I forgot, starting bank 100U too here...

Brazil tonight:

- Botafogo RJ - Duque de Caxias RJ : Botafogo RJ -1.50 @2.08 SBOBET 1U
- Friburguense - Olaria : Olaria DNB@ 1,95 IBCBET/12BET 1U
- Paulista FC - Santos : Santos -1.00 @2.03 IBCBET/12BET 1U

England Southern Premier League tongiht :

- Hednesford - Farnborough : Farnborough @ 1,75 188bet 1U


GL

[jeanbouin88]

Here what should have been there in order to take all bets together, i won't fget anymore as it needs to get all bets taken out from a model...

I forgot, starting bank 100U too here...

Brazil + Colombia :

- Botafogo RJ - Duque de Caxias RJ : Botafogo RJ -1.50 @2.08 SBOBET 1U
- Friburguense - Olaria : Olaria DNB@ 1,95 IBCBET/12BET 1U
- Paulista FC - Santos : Santos -1.00 @2.03 IBCBET/12BET 1U
- Tigres Brasil - Fluminense : Fluminense -1,5@2,05 188Bet 1U
- America RJ - Americano Campos: America RJ -0,75@ 1,92 188Bet 1U
- Flamengo RJ - Madureira: Flamnego -1,5@2,14 188Bet 1U
- Caxias - Sport Club Ulbra: Caxias@ 1,58 188Bet 1U
- Cruzeiro vs Uberaba Sport Club : Cruzeiro -1,50@ 1,80 188Bet 1U
- America Mineiro vs Ituiutaba Esporte Clube : America Mineiro@ 1,57 IBCBET/12Bet 1U
- Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali : Deportivo@ 1,85 Nordicbet 1U
- Etoile FC vs Sengkang Punggol: Etoile @1,85 Nordicbet 1U
- Athletico Tucuman vs Newells Old Boys: Newells DNB@1,77 SBOBET 1U
- Chaves vs Beira-Mar : Beira MAr DNB@1,83 SBO 1U
- Palmeiras vs Santo Andre: Santo Andre +0,5@2,08 188Bet/IBCBET 1U
- Deportes Quindio vs Atletico Junior: Atl Junior -0,25@1,77 SBO 1U
- Avenida vs Gremio: Gremio -1,25@ 2,14 IBCBET/12Bet 1U


England Southern Premier League :

- Hednesford - Farnborough : Farnborough @ 1,75 188bet 1U


GL

* Edit: Hard to choose when it is a model based thus i added all bets all together and do for the upcoming days from the start sorry...

[jeanbouin88]

Today :

- H. Ironi Kir. Shmona - Ahva Arabe: H.Ironi Shmona@1,96 IBCBET/12Bet 1U
- Mons - FC Liege: Mons -1,5@1,82 IBC/12Bet 1U
- G.A. Eagles - Dordrecht: G.A Eagles@ 1,67 188Bet 1U
- Excelsior - FC Oss: Excelior @1,40 Interwetten 1U
- Wisla - Arka Gdynia: Wisla@1,30 Betsson/BAH 1U
- Reims - Frejus Saint Raphael: Reims-1@1,94 IBCBET/12Bet 1U
- Apeldoorn - Maastricht: Apeldoorn@ 2,00 188Bet (-0,5 same price) 1U
- Rapid Vienna (Am) - Mattersburg (Am): Rapid(Am) @1,75 Interwetten 1U
- Admira (Am) - Team Fur Wien:Admira (Am) @2,35 Bwin 1U
- Veendam - Omniworld: Omniworld +0,25@ 2,02 Pinnaclesports 1U
- Haladas - Kaposvar: Kapsovar +0,5@1,92 IBC/12Bet 1U
- Lokomotiv Mezdra - Slavia Sofia: Slavia Sofia@1,85 Expekt 1U
- Sol de America - Cerro Porteno: Cerro Porteno -0,5@ 2,04 IBCBET/12Bet 1U
- Vitkovice - Sokolov: Sokolov@ 2,05 188Bet 1U
- Jihlava - Zlin : Zlin DNB@1,73 188Bet 1U
- Hyeres - Evian Thonon Gaillard: Evian -0,5@2,02 IBC/12Bet 1U
- Dornbirn - A. Lustenau: Lustenau@ 1,67 Gamebookers 1U
- Clermont - Brest: Brest DNB@ 2,16 IBCBET/12Bet 1U

GL

[jeanbouin88]

Adding :

- Leiria - Leixoes: Leiria@1,80 188Bet/Unibet 1U

[levskarq77]

jeanbouin88 rely on what method to set its forecast for a match?

[jeanbouin88]

Well, that is recent form and strength model and so on... A model is always hard to describe and also there is a part of secret to keep it alive ;o)

But it permit usually to find some games where bookies tend to under evaluate some things when they settle the prices or lines.

Sometime form or ranking is almost equal for example between two teams but the real strength or the faced opponent levels are different. A team in England with X pts after 5 games that faced big names and another one with same number of points but that faced average teams, on paper they can be in the same region of the rankings, similar form and everything seems equal, but in term of real quality and level of a team, more things needs to be integrated than table and results... Sometime bookies are far from what i expect lines/prices to be and thus i take them.

GL

[jeanbouin88]

- Laval-Metz: Metz DNB@ 2.15 Ladbrokes 1U
- Colchester-Brighton: Colchester -0.5@ 1.95 Pinnaclesports 1U
- Valencia-Santander: Valencia@ 1.63 188bet 1U
- Arminia Bielefeld - Karlsruher: Bielefield@1.70 188bet 1 U

update on all results Tuesday