Money based trials

[Pete89]

I'm intersted in predicting events based on what people are betting (% of total)

I'm using a few sources for this, and I'm going to start by tracking Premiership only.

System 1: Go with the Money

Here I will bet where the odds offer value against the % money bet figure as probability.

System 2: Oppose the Money

I'll follow the betfair lay price for the above at posting

System 3: The Smart Money

Here I will look for where a price is relitively low compaired to the money bet on it and bet it.

These are three paper trials and WILL post conficting results.

[Pete89]

System 1:
BACK Wigan @ 2.38

System 2:
LAY Wigan @ 2.34

System 3:
BACK Wigan v Bolton Draw @ 3.45

[Pete89]

System 1

-1 pt

system 2

+0.41 pt

system 3
+3.28 pts

comission included where applicable, lays to 1pt liability

[yorkieacer]

nice start for you tonight pete