Football ratings system

[jtw1]

Been running a new system for the past couple of weeks as an interest and it's showing a decent strike rate so i'll put it up and see how it goes .
The ratings are from 2 other sites and the h2h's are included but not a decisive part of the process [ unless there is a real bias AGAINST the selected team]



All 3 qualifying games fall on Sunday this week -

GENOA v atalanta +110 , +3.50 , 3-1-1 , odds - 1.83

UDINESE v sampdoria +126 , +3.75 , 4-3-3 , odds - 2.1

VILLAREAL v zaragoza +172 , + 4.25 , 4-4-0 , odds -1.44

There have been 10 wins from 12 selections so far .

[Pete89]

Watching with interest.

[jtw1]

Looks like the GENOA rating was reduced after their home draw on Weds , which makes the game invalid for selection tomorrow

So that leaves a double with UDINESE and VILLAREAL

[jtw1]

UDINESE v sampdoria 2-3

VILLAREAL v zaragoza 4-2

There have been 11 wins from 14 selections so far .
There have been 10 OVER 2.5 goals returns from 14
There have been 10 games where the -1 handicap would have beaten .

[ONEDUNME]

You are Da Man man.

[jtw1]

Cheers mate , but it's still early days but

[ONEDUNME]

Let's hope it's a case of "giant oaks from little acorns"

[jtw1]

EVERTON v sunderland +118 , +3.75 , 5-2-1 . Odds - 1.66 straight home win.

Better, imo , is the 2.05 which appears to be on offer from bet365 for OVER 2.5 goals .
This corresponding fixture has finished OVER in 7 of the past 8 meetings since '96 - 1-3 , 5-0 , 2-2 , 1-0 , 2-1 , 2-2 , 7-1 and 3-0 .

And even better is the 2.87 on offer from the same firm for EVERTON with a -1 goal Handicap .

Personally i'm going for the OVER'S , for the sake of the system it will only be the home win we're interested in.

[jtw1]

EVERTON 2-0

Serve's me right for being a greedy barsteward

[jtw1]

Ok had a couple of days to think about how best to approach these figures .
When i started this system it was to try and find one winner from the 2 sides involved and that is still the the case , although personally , i'm swayed towards the Handicap odds if the straight win is a bit cramped as some may feel that this weekend's are .

The figure's / ratings are saying that on an even playing field one side should have a considerable advantage over their opponents and that 'should' reflect in the margin of victory [ imo anyway ]

Before going totaly off on a tangent , here's the 3 games that qualify this weekend -

BAYERN MUNICH v mainz +162 , +4.0 , 3-0-0 . odds - 1.2

sp gijon v BARCELONA -142 , -3.0 , 0-1-3. odds - 1.25

ROMA v siena +132 , +5.25 , 4-0-2 . odds - 1.28

The acca pays just under evens .


Odds with the Favs giving away a 1 goal handicap -

B MUNICH - 1.57

BARCELONA - 1.61

ROMA - 1.9

The acca pays 4.8 with Bet 365 odds.

Once more it's the straight wins that the system revolves around so those are the results that matter , but i think i'll be dabbling with the Handicaps as well

[jtw1]

Missed one !!

MAN CITY Go +132, 4.50 .

Odds - 1.3

-1 goal - 1.83

[jtw1]

we had 4/4 this weekend

B MUNICH 3-0
BARCELONA 1-0
MAN CITY 2-0
ROMA 2-1

That makes it 16 wins from 19 selections with a profit to a straight 10pt win single on each of 31.90pts

Those that have beaten the -1 handicap number 13 .
Never kept a note of the odds on the early selections so unsure where they stand but i'm sure it's in profit.

Still going the right way

[thesaint]

Nice one mate your on fire!

[jtw1]

MAN U +214 , +4.63 , 6-0-0 , odds - 1.12

BARCA +176 , +3.13 , 3-2-0 , odds - 1.16

REAL MADRID +156 , +5.13 , 7-1-0 , odds - 1.2

INTER +111 , +3.25 , 6-1-0 , odds - 1.36

ATH BILBAO +96 , +3.25 , 0-0-0 , odds - 1.44

MALLORCA +98 , +3.5 , 3-3-5 , odds - 2.3

[ONEDUNME]

Majorca one is an interesting price mate. I wonder what the spanish thread says about them