Football ratings system

[jtw1]

Nice to finish with a flourish

ROMA 2-0
VALENCIA 1-0


Main system - +158.41pts

Over 2.5 - -38.90pts

-1 Handicap - +72.05pts

[HastGill1]

Nice work mate, followed it from Christmas..hope to see it back again next season..

[jtw1]

It'll be back mate , make no mistake and hopefully better


There were 111 selections of which 87 won .
There were also 97 matches which finished OVER 1.5 and of those 14 that didn't , no less than 8 were played in the last 4 weeks of the season.

It was also around then that the 2.5 goals tally started to fall , so more than just co-incidence imo .

During the close season i'll be taking a good look at the results we have and try to identify which games may be worth dropping /following with respect to any of the betting markets i've mentioned .

[jtw1]

Ok lets have a wee look at where the winners/losers came from .

GOONERS Numbers - Only 2 losers were rated above 138 , the majority [17] were rated between 83 and 129 .
The other 2 were rated 175 and 170 .

Of the 11 that had a single figure rating , only 5 won.

ALL 9 rated 199+ won .

7/8 rated 180-198 won.

3/5 aways won.

Summary - Obviously the higher the number the better the chance of a win
The odds for those rated 199+ ranged from 1.10 up to 2.20 [the 2.20 was exceptional as it was a match in the last week of the Spanish Primera where the home team announced and played a 'weaker' side but still managed a win .

There were 6 losers who had single figures and a further who were rated 101 + 102 so there could be an advantage in eliminating those rated under a certain number , say 102 for example .

H2H Ratings - An impressive 29 wins from 35 games where the rating is 4.0+ and of those 6 losses 2 had a GOONERS rating under 100 and one was an Away !!

Odds 1.20 and Under - 23/23 came in and 19 ended OVER 2.5 goals .


Ok so in the general state of play we didn't have a great number of games to consider [111] but some trends did appear to be on the strong side .

Generally if we have a cut-off point of around 102 or below with Gooners ratings that may cut the number of losing games and special attention should be taken of matches rated 180+ and also a H2H rating of +4.00 .

Would it be worth taking the OVERS where the selected side is under 1.22 in the betting , a couple of losses and a big chunk of the profit is gone , whereas the better odds available about the Overs would negate that potential problem ?


Will take a look at the Over 1.5 goals and -1 Handicap results later to see if there's an edge to be gained there .

[Pete89]

Thanks for your hard work JTW! Might I suggest though that you have a new thread for next season?