[r a n c i d]

Okay, i don't bet... But with the Six Nations coming up i figured i'd put on a little wager to make the gamesmore exiting

... Anyhow, after browsing through sky bet i was intrigued with the many betting options, and i basically need someone to explain to me why i'm an idiot, and why my idea certainly won't work; because i'm too stupid to spot the flaw myself.

Okay here it is right, keep inmind i'm not the best with maths.

The Coca Cola Championship has an average of 27% Away victories.

That gives you 73% chance of winning if you place on Home Win and Draw... With the odds at an average of about(just for this weeks games) 2.30 - 2.60, which to my pseudo betting knowledge means you get 2.5(for the sake of the argument) x the money you gambled, right?

So lets say there is 12 games, and for each game you'll bet on both a home win and a draw... that's 24 bets, with a 73% chance of success, with a return of on average 2.5

In theory then, you can only win one of your two bets. So you've got 12 winners. Then you've got to consider only 75% of your 12 winners will actually win, so you've got 9 winners.

9 winners, 15 losses.

150 units lost.

9 bets won with 10 units on each bet, with a return of 2.5... 225 units won... Which leaves you with a profit of 75 units.

Then you have your lower italian leagues where only 17% of games are won by the away team

Could someone please tear my concept to pieces before i go out and put a giant hole in my bank balance

[Quandram]

I think you'd need a roughly equal number of home wins and draws in order for this to work due to the way the odds are stacked. Too many home wins and you'll find your return isn't what you think it is.

My stats for the Championship say something like
Home win 40%
Draw 31%
Away 29%

That suggests you're getting many less draws than home wins so the odds will be lower than your 2.5 avg.

Avg odds are nice for calculations but you need the results to produce the same average and that isn't always the case.

[Quandram]

A better way to work out the returns for this idea would be to look at the lay odds for each game on Betfair (or similar).

[r a n c i d]

Even still though, at the set of games i viewed as an example, betfair had the home game win odds on average of atleast 2.0 for the 12 games... Which in theory should still turn over a profit

Unless i'm reading wrong

Sky Bet > Football > Coca Cola Championship, is what i'm basing my little theory on

You check for me, like i say i'm new to this.

But even then, a profit is a profit, and logic tells you that on average you'll win 9 out of every 24 bets.

Obviously it'll vary and they'll be bad weeks etc... But right now my concept to me sounds decent.

Apart from that though, can you spot any other holes in my 'system'? Because i'm going to 'proof' it later on, as you guys say... Only with small money, but still. It sounds too good to be true to me, and their must be something massive i've overlooked

[r a n c i d]

Originally Posted by Quandram

A better way to work out the returns for this idea would be to look at the lay odds for each game on Betfair (or similar).

The reason i didn't work out the returns and figures to the correct point, and instead did a rough estimation, is because i figured the odds and return etc would vary from week to week, game to games.

I'm going to run over it again though in a minute once i've had a shower.

But then again there's hundreds of thousands of people sat around looking for systems, i doubt i've thought one up after a few minutes stumbling around a betting website

[Quandram]

Test away mate, i don't have time to work out the odds for the weekend at the moment (damn working life).

1 question though, are you planning on betting the same on every result or staking different amounts to get a consistent return?

[r a n c i d]

Originally Posted by Quandram

Test away mate, i don't have time to work out the odds for the weekend at the moment (damn working life).

1 question though, are you planning on betting the same on every result or staking different amounts to get a consistent return?

Well my football knowledge is shite, if we're to be honest. But i was going to have a look at the tables, teams records against each other, home victories, away victories etc; if only to give my idea a slight edge.

Then if i did get positive results and made profit on a decent percentage level i'd dig around and get my football knowledge up to decrease chances of losing bets.

Like i said, i'm an amatuer at betting and football alike... Only wanted to make a 6nations bet and the football odds caught my eye.

Going to try it out tomorrow, will keep you posted on the results

[r a n c i d]

I did originally calculate it wrong, but these are my current calculations

Matches played 346
Home wins 145 ( 41.9% )
Draws 105 ( 30.34% )
Away wins 96 ( 27.74% )
---- 72% of winning
.............................
win = 2.16
draw = 3.25
average = 2.40(roughly)
.............................
12 games played, 4-5 = away wins
7-8 = draws/home wins
.............................
£10 on 12 wins, 12 draws = £240
24 bets - 12 can be right - 4 are away wins = 8 correct bets
.............................
24 minus 8 = 16 wrong bets
--- £160 lost
.............................
8 winning £10 bets with odds at 2.40
= £192

And that's if you bet the same amount on every single game, with a little knowledge i'm sure the profit can be upped by a small fortune.

Now if i could find a site that takes bets on Italian Serie C1B and C1A, where the away game victory is a pathetic 18%(less than 1/5th), and the games had decent odds, i'd be more confident

[r a n c i d]

Here's the theory again for Italian Series c1b, odds from William Hill

Matches played 188
Home wins 82 ( 43.61% )
Draws 73 ( 38.82% )
Away wins 33 ( 17.55% )
.............................
win = 2.05
draw = 2.9
average = 2.45(roughly)
.............................
8 games played, 1.5 = away wins
6.5 = draws/home wins
.............................
£10 on 8 wins, 8 draws = £160
16 bets - 8 can be right - 2 are away wins = 6 correct bets
.............................
16 minus 6 = 10 wrong bets
--- £100 lost
.............................
6 winning £10 bets with odds at 2.45
= £147

[r a n c i d]

Even if by chance, the Series B League which only has 17% away wins had an extra away win on said week, you'd still turn a profit.

Can't wait to try this!

[r a n c i d]

The margin for error appears to be small, granted we get consistantly good odds for home wins and draws.

William Hill only lets you vote on either win or draw though, you can't pick both... Which is gay

[Wittmann 44]

Hi Rancid

I suggest that if you go to the football data website run by Joe Buchdahl which maintains historical odds and you fool around with a few seasons worth of results you will find very quickly that this “system” will lose you money very steadily.

Free Bets | Football Results | Soccer Betting Odds | Live Scores

A number of points I would make

As Quandram says average odds are meaningless – many of the home wins are your Man Utds, Arsenals and Chelseas going off at very short odds – if you are using fixed staking the small returns on these games will not cancel out the losses on the losing away wins and draws (when the latter lose).

Taking last years Premiership Results and Hills Odds for an example and 1 Unit Staking

47.89% Home Wins (Round to 48) => 182 Winners Returned 188.82 (avg home win ods 2.04)

25.79% Draws (Round to 26) => 98 Winners Returned 230.96 (avg draw ods 3.36)

26.32% Away (Round to 26) => 100 Losers

Taking those % and average odds (which are typical) and using 100 bets at 1 Unit Each

48 Home Winners => Returns 49.92 Units @ 2.04 Avg Odds
26 Draw Winners => Returns 61.36 Units @ 3.36 Avg Odds

Losing Bets => 52 Units on the Home Winners
Losing Bets => 74 Units on the Draw Winners

Total Losses 126 Units
Total Winners 111.28 Units

Loss = 14.72 Units (Negative Yield 7.36%*) *14.72/200

The average odds for the 2007 Premiership home/draw odds were incidentally 2.49.

[r a n c i d]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Hi Rancid

I suggest that if you go to the football data website run by Joe Buchdahl which maintains historical odds and you fool around with a few seasons worth of results you will find very quickly that this “system” will lose you money very steadily.

Free Bets | Football Results | Soccer Betting Odds | Live Scores

A number of points I would make

As Quandram says average odds are meaningless – many of the home wins are your Man Utds, Arsenals and Chelseas going off at very short odds – if you are using fixed staking the small returns on these games will not cancel out the losses on the losing away wins and draws (when the latter lose).

Taking last years Premiership Results and Hills Odds for an example and 1 Unit Staking

47.89% Home Wins (Round to 48) => 182 Winners Returned 188.82 (avg home win ods 2.04)

25.79% Draws (Round to 26) => 98 Winners Returned 230.96 (avg draw ods 3.36)

26.32% Away (Round to 26) => 100 Losers

Taking those % and average odds (which are typical) and using 100 bets at 1 Unit Each

48 Home Winners => Returns 49.92 Units @ 2.04 Avg Odds
26 Draw Winners => Returns 61.36 Units @ 3.36 Avg Odds

Losing Bets => 52 Units on the Home Winners
Losing Bets => 74 Units on the Draw Winners

Total Losses 126 Units
Total Winners 111.28 Units

Loss = 14.72 Units (Negative Yield 7.36%*) *14.72/200

The average odds for the 2007 Premiership home/draw odds were incidentally 2.49.

Cheers for that. I'm guessing the easiest way to make profit is to actually know your stuff

Thanks for that date site too. What about, if you don't mind me asking, erm... Betting on 0 goals scored in the first 10 minutes? I know this isn't really the advice section, but most people i speak to tell me i practically can't lose money if i place bets on no goals being scored within the first 10 minutes? Do you have any statistics for the time in which goals are usually conceded in?

[Wittmann 44]

Betting on 0 goals scored in the first 10 minutes? I know this isn't really the advice section, but most people i speak to tell me i practically can't lose money if i place bets on no goals being scored within the first 10 minutes? Do you have any statistics for the time in which goals are usually conceded in?

I don’t know much about goal minutes to be honest. I’d be very wary of any “sure fire” winning systems being propounded by people. If there was such a loophole the shrewd money would be backing it to such an extent that the odds being offered would reflect the reality very quickly. I’m not sure are any sites available with that information readily available in an easily manipulated form.

I do think that there are anomalies in the goal minutes from time to time (i.e certain teams that have a habit of scoring second half or of not conceding in the first 30 minutes). Generally you have to spot the trend before everyone else to take advantage of it as the loophole gets closed very quickly by the markets.

Feel free to ask questions anywhere by the way.

If you are interested in rugby I suggest you check out the other sports forum here. Piechucker who posts in there is a very knowledgable punter and has had some nice coups in the past. There's a nice looking handicap bet on Ireland available.