Backing Over 2.5 goals at 80%+

selectabet · #1 (**permalink**) 14-01-2008, 20:01

Right, I'm going to be testing out a new system over the next couple of weeks so if anyone wants to contribute feel free...

Over at my blog I've had a decent run recently betting on the Over/Under market. There's not been anything too scientific about it to be honest and maybe I've been lucky but here goes.

I've been using BetDevil.com to check out stats before placing my bets. For most league games they calculate %ages for 1X2 and for Overs/Unders. Recently I've noticed a few games that have been anywhere from 82% to 91% probability of being Over 2.5 goals - so I've backed them. So far they've all won. I created myself a simple little probability calculator to see what percentage the bookies were giving these games based on the odds. It seems to me they're massively underpricing them, mostly around 55-65%. If nothing else these are value bets.

If you had an 80%+ home win you'd get odds of something like 1/10 or something daft like that, but not in this market.

Anyway yesterday I checked every fixture on BetDevil and three were showing at +80% for Overs (Utrecht v Heerenveen, Ajax v AZ, Sampdoria v Palermo) and guess what, they all came up (2-2, 6-1 and 3-0 at odds of 7/10, 67/100 & 24/25).

I checked back on Saturday's fixtures. I found 14 games at +80%. Of the 14, 13 finished with more than 2.5 goals! (the other game finished 1-1 - so close!)

I don't know if there's anything in it but I'm gonna keep an eye on it.

selectabet · #2 (**permalink**) 14-01-2008, 20:05

There weren't any games that met the criteria today but there are two tomorrow;

English Ryman Lge: East Thurrock v Staines
English Unibond Lge: Leek v Worksop

But I can't find a bookie thats giving odds on Overs/ Unders. Anyway, it'll test the system.

mrshrewdie · #3 (**permalink**) 15-01-2008, 10:12

Originally Posted by selectabet

There weren't any games that met the criteria today but there are two tomorrow;

English Ryman Lge: East Thurrock v Staines
English Unibond Lge: Leek v Worksop

But I can't find a bookie thats giving odds on Overs/ Unders. Anyway, it'll test the system.

selectabet

Pinnaclesports give under/overs on non-league

Leek/Worksop Over 2.5/3.0 - 1.87
ETU/Staines Over 2.5/3.0 - 1.746

**GaNgStA kEeKs** · #4 (**permalink**) 15-01-2008, 16:37

GL mate.

A market i am growing to like more and more now so i will look on with interest.

selectabet · #5 (**permalink**) 15-01-2008, 20:13

Cheers guys, I'll take a look at Pinnacle.

Both games have been postponed tonight I think.

I don't see any tomorrow night either. Patience.

crowie · #6 (**permalink**) 16-01-2008, 11:43

Interesting stuff Selectabet.

What do you make of Betdevil BTW? Have you got a subscription with them? Last time I used them, probably about 2 years ago, I think I had the top level subscription where you could put together your own systems for back testing. Then my work blocked gambling sites which was a fucker as it was where I used to do most of my "work"

Pretty sure I backtested a couple of over/under systems but it was hard to produce a long term profit from them.

selectabet · #7 (**permalink**) 16-01-2008, 18:22

I've not got a subscription there crowie. The info I'm using appears to be readily available by just signing up to their free membership.

Lets see how the next couple of weeks go on this overs market. What interests me most is the value to be had. Given that there's only 2 outcomes, the odds always seem to be reasonably priced. When you chuck in a system (no idea how BetDevil calculates their probabilities mind you) that suggests 80%+ probability I can't see how you can lose long term.

Forget about the bookies margin for a minute. For them to price up an 80% probability would mean the odds would need to be at around 1/4 for overs and 4/1 for unders. They never get anywhere near that.

crowie · #8 (**permalink**) 17-01-2008, 12:34

Cheers

Might have a wee look at it again, at home, to see whats available for free.

I am sure they had something on their site about how the do their ratings, without actually fully revealing the fine details, but can't say for certain now. It probably has been a couple of years since I last used it.

Agree what your saying about their probabilities against the prices quoted of O/U bets. Think the lowest I saw for purely 2.5 for normal league games was some of the Norwegian lower league stuff being priced up about 1.40/1.45 for the overs.

selectabet · #9 (**permalink**) 17-01-2008, 12:53

Those two games in the Ryman and Unibond were postponed earlier in the week so I've not been able to test it much so far. There are two games on Friday that fit the bill;

Dutch 1st Div: Go Ahead Eagles v Volendam: Overs 84%. Best odds: 3/5
Wales Prem: Aberystwyth v llanelli: Overs 82%. Best odds: Can't find any

selectabet · #10 (**permalink**) 18-01-2008, 18:00

Here's Saturdays' games that fit the the system; If anyone can help with odds on those games that I can't find please post them;

Scottish 2nd: Ayr v Alloa: Overs 82%. Best Odds: 3/5
Scottish 2nd: Cowdenbeath v Brechin: Overs 80%. Best Odds: 3/5
Scottish 3rd: Albion Rvrs v E Stirling: Overs 94%. Best Odds: 9/20
Scottish 3rd: Arbroath v Elgin: Overs: 86%. Best Odds: 1/2
Dutch Ere: Utrecht v Roda: Overs 84%. Best Odds: 13/20
Eng Conf: Aldershot v Forest Green: Overs: 84%. Best Odds: 18/25
Eng Conf: Altrincham v York: Overs: 84%. Best Odds: 3/4
Belg 2nd: Excels Vir v UR Namur: Overs: 83%. Best Odds: 47/50 (Over 2.5/3)
N Ire Prem: Larne v Newry: Overs: 91%. Best Odds: ?
N Ire Prem: Dungannon v Glentoran: Overs: 88%. Best Odds: ?
Wales Prem: Llangefni v Neath: Overs: 81%. Best Odds: 1.800 (over 2.5/3)
Wales Prem: Connah's QH v Haverfordwest: Overs: 82%. Best Odds: 1.787 (over 2.5/3)
Eng Conf N: Kettering v Stalybridge: Overs: 83%. Best Odds: 1.877 (over 2.5/3)
Eng Conf N: Hyde v Alfreton: Overs: 87%. Best Odds: 1.870 (Over 3)
Eng Conf S: Lewes v Hamp Rich: Overs 83%: Best Odds: 1.901 (over 2.5/3)
Eng Rym: Hendon v Ashford (mx): Overs 86%: Best Odds: 1.769 (over 2.5/3)
Eng Rym: Chlemsford v Leyton: Overs: 81%: Best Odds: 1.926 (over 3/3.5!)
Eng Rym: Staines v Horsham: Overs: 83%: Best Odds: 1.926 (over 2.5/3)
Eng Rym: Harrow v Boreham Wood: Overs: 87%: Best Odds: 1.806 (over 2.5/3)
Eng Uni: Ilkeston v N Ferriby: Overs: 82%: Best Odds: (game off?)
Eng Uni: Stamford v Whitby: Overs: 93%: Best Odds: 1.917 (over 3)
Eng Uni: Matlock v Prescot C: Overs: 81%: Best Odds: 1.926 (over 2.5/3)

Lets see how it goes.

selectabet · #11 (**permalink**) 18-01-2008, 19:32

Originally Posted by selectabet

Dutch 1st Div: Go Ahead Eagles v Volendam: Overs 84%. Best odds: 3/5
Wales Prem: Aberystwyth v llanelli: Overs 82%. Best odds: Can't find any

Go Ahead 1 Volendam 2 (76mins)
Aberystwyth v Llanelli - Postponed

I make that 17 out of 18 so far.

selectabet · #12 (**permalink**) 20-01-2008, 08:32

Originally Posted by selectabet

Scottish 2nd: Ayr v Alloa: Overs 82%. Best Odds: 3/5 (3-1)
Scottish 2nd: Cowdenbeath v Brechin: Overs 80%. Best Odds: 3/5 (0-1)
Scottish 3rd: Albion Rvrs v E Stirling: Overs 94%. Best Odds: 9/20 (2-2)
Scottish 3rd: Arbroath v Elgin: Overs: 86%. Best Odds: 1/2 (2-0)
Dutch Ere: Utrecht v Roda: Overs 84%. Best Odds: 13/20 (3-1)
Eng Conf: Aldershot v Forest Green: Overs: 84%. Best Odds: 18/25 (0-1)
Eng Conf: Altrincham v York: Overs: 84%. Best Odds: 3/4 (2-2)
Belg 2nd: Excels Vir v UR Namur: Overs: 83%. Best Odds: 47/50 (Over 2.5/3) (0-1)
N Ire Prem: Larne v Newry: Overs: 91%. Best Odds: ? (3-0)
N Ire Prem: Dungannon v Glentoran: Overs: 88%. Best Odds: ? (0-0)
Wales Prem: Llangefni v Neath: Overs: 81%. Best Odds: 1.800 (over 2.5/3) (Postponed)
Wales Prem: Connah's QH v Haverfordwest: Overs: 82%. Best Odds: 1.787 (over 2.5/3) (PP)
Eng Conf N: Kettering v Stalybridge: Overs: 83%. Best Odds: 1.877 (over 2.5/3) (0-1)
Eng Conf N: Hyde v Alfreton: Overs: 87%. Best Odds: 1.870 (Over 3) (0-2)
Eng Conf S: Lewes v Hamp Rich: Overs 83%: Best Odds: 1.901 (over 2.5/3) (1-2)
Eng Rym: Hendon v Ashford (mx): Overs 86%: Best Odds: 1.769 (over 2.5/3) (PP)
Eng Rym: Chlemsford v Leyton: Overs: 81%: Best Odds: 1.926 (over 3/3.5!) (2-1)
Eng Rym: Staines v Horsham: Overs: 83%: Best Odds: 1.926 (over 2.5/3) (PP)
Eng Rym: Harrow v Boreham Wood: Overs: 87%: Best Odds: 1.806 (over 2.5/3) (3-1)
Eng Uni: Ilkeston v N Ferriby: Overs: 82%: Best Odds: (game off?) (PP)
Eng Uni: Stamford v Whitby: Overs: 93%: Best Odds: 1.917 (over 3) (1-3)
Eng Uni: Matlock v Prescot C: Overs: 81%: Best Odds: 1.926 (over 2.5/3) (3-1)

Lets see how it goes.

Mmmm, not the best day for the system.

17 games played, 10 wins, 7 losses.

Running Total: 27/35 (77% success)

selectabet · #13 (**permalink**) 20-01-2008, 08:42

Four for Sunday;

Dutch Ere: NEC v Ajax: Overs: 83%. Best Odds 3/5
Bel 2: Lierse v Verbr Geel: Overs 80%. Best Odss 87/100 (2.5/3)
Tur 2: Elazigspor v Kartalspor: Overs 80%. Best Odds 3/4
Tur 2: Eskisehirspor v Gaziantep BB: Overs 82%. Best Odds 7/10

selectabet · #14 (**permalink**) 20-01-2008, 15:04

Originally Posted by selectabet

Dutch Ere: NEC v Ajax: Overs: 83%. Best Odds 3/5 (1-1)
Bel 2: Lierse v Verbr Geel: Overs 80%. Best Odss 87/100 (2.5/3) (5-1)
Tur 2: Elazigspor v Kartalspor: Overs 80%. Best Odds 3/4 (2-1)
Tur 2: Eskisehirspor v Gaziantep BB: Overs 82%. Best Odds 7/10 (1-1)

2 wins & 2 loses

selectabet · #15 (**permalink**) 21-01-2008, 12:31

No games tonight or tomorrow.

Running Total is 29/37 (78% success rate)