X Factor (tes thread - see Other Sports for original)

[Beanie]

Sweet - Ben into under 3s to win and Leonna into 2nd favourite. Ben's a shoe in for the top Over 25 now too.

I don't think the Unconventionals could have picked up a cult following simply because of their name. Anything actively advertising itself as different immediately puts people off I think. Although it seems like last night they went out simply because they were shit and you can't say fairer than that.

[Beanie]

Just watched last night's show and this series looks a lot more straightforward than previous years.

Looks like a 2 horse race between Ben and Leonna, with Ray and Ashley having no more than outside claims to the win.

Kerry will survive long enough but her voice is average at best and won't be good enough. She says she is going to do some songs standing up which will win a few extra votes, but as I say, not enough.

Nikitta - Looks the type that is early week fodder, but I think she'll survive a while. Voice is decent and has more personality than Dionne.

4sure + Eton Road - Louis can't be allowed to see his 4 acts go within the first 6 shows, which would be a real possibility, so I think every effort will be made by the producers to make one of these 2 bands seem like realistic contenders. Neither is too bad and they'll be safe for a few weeks yet IMO.

Dionne - Seemed to sing well last night, but still found herself in the bottom 2, which says a lot about her appeal.

Rob - All been done before, and better, by Andy last year. An early exit IMO.

MacDonald Brothers - Fairly bland, and will need a major overhaul to survive much longer. Gone next week or the week after, depending on song/running order.

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One problem is that Simon's acts look very strong...he probably has 3 of the top 4 at the moment, with Nikitta far better than many others. Will the producers allow a situation where Simon has 4 acts after a few shows, while Louis might be left with just 1(if that) at the same stage? Or will someone like Nikitta be made a sacrificial lamb in the name of balance?

As I say for the next few weeks I think we'll see the MacDonalds go, Dionne go, and maybe Rob too, and after that I'll be on the lookout for one of Simon's to go while Louis' remaining two get the treatment for the producers.

[stereoman]

Yeah, there'll probably be a 66/1 fix...uh, I mean eviction shocker on the cards for this series an' all.

Today's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1200: William Hill are seeing money for the top three in their X Factor betting, as punters see the event as a three horse race, even at this very early stage.

"So far we have been unable to attract wagers for any of the contestants other than Ben, Leona and Ashley and on Saturday nights performance it is hard to disagree with punters.

"One thing that is all but certain is that Louis has no chance of being the winning Mentor." said Hills spokesman Rupert Adams.

Ben is the 7/4 favourite, with Leona priced at 11/4 and Ashley is priced at 6/1. Nikitta is 8/1 and then it's 10/1 about Ray, Kerry and Eton Road.

Meanwhile Hills have former Spice Girl Emma Bunton as their 2/1 favourite to win Strictly Come Dancing.

[stereoman]

Yesterday's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1300: William Hill have installed The MacDonald Brothers as their 7/4 favourites to be the second band voted off the X Factor on Saturday night.

Surprisingly though the firm have seen a run of money for Ashley to get the boot and have cut his price from 20/1 to 16/1.

"There are rumours of a major rift between Simon Cowell and Ashley, which could be having a negative effect on Ashley's preparations for the next live show, but personally I think he has a real chance of being this year's winner," explained Hills spokesman Rupert Adams.

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Well it would be kind of unusual that they would get rid of two groups so quickly but y'never know. One for in-running (well duh).

William Hill's odds:

The MacDonald Brothers 7/4
Dionne 9/4
4 Sure 5/1
Kerry 10/1
Robert 12/1
Ray 12/1
Eton Road 16/1
Ashley 16/1
Nikitta 20/1
Leona 33/1
Ben 50/1

[trickrick]

Well as this week's song theme is Rod Stewart you can only see Ben's price tightening up even more...

I do like Ashley though and I think he has that quirky voice and unusual image to go far..Still havent done any outright betting so far..

As for elimination - Well if Dionne can be in the bottom 2 with one of the best performances of the night, how can she not appear in the bottom two this week as she tackles Rod Stewart..?

Anyhow more thoughts towards the weekend..

[Beanie]

The McDonalds are reported to be singing "Sailing" and that will seal their position in the bottom 2 IMO. I'll post up song choices when they are confirmed.

What you say is logical trick but I have a funny feeling Dionne will avoid the bottom 2 this week, and maybe someone like Rob, maybe even Kerry(unless she employs the standing gig early) will find themselves down there.

Anyway, whoever is down there with them the McDonalds should walk this week and I'd have them nearer evens. Its true what you say stereo that losing two groups so early is uncommon, but they have zero personality, are not offering the show any sort of stories, and if they go then at the very least Louis' camp can be painted as 'in crisis' or something and Eton Road can then emerge as the pheonix from the flames(I'm now convinced its them that will be promoted as Louis' act that has a chance.)

So I'll be taking an early position on the McDonalds as soon as I see the running order(unless they go last) as I'm convinced they'll drop into odds on territory not long after performing.

[trickrick]

Hmmm..Not convinced that McDonald Brothers are nailed on for the bottom two.. Surely 'sailing' - a Rod Stewart classic will suit their harmonious voices? Judgin by how they avoided the bottom two last week, they obviously have a bit of a following with the old dears who will find their Saturday evening light entertainment routine appealing enough to vote for them... I don't know... ..What are the others singing?

[freddyfightsback]

Ok, well i took a beating last week, the in-running didn't work and dionne quite rightly getting saved. I feel as if i was looking at it from the wrong angle, the one who goes is the one the judges / producers want to go. Not the public.
So last week, i thought Robert got loads of air time. he had a long chat with kate, simon gave him a good line about him talking like frank bruno-easy tee up for robert to give the funny line. it was all very well staged, robert even got some tears in. i think he is the "personality" of the show this year. Eton road also got good chat, even though anthony didn't quite nail it, still a good showing. no-one else really got good times with kate-notice how shayne always got good chat with kate. she never cut him off mid-sentence...
Apart from those two, the judges won't chuck out kerry this soon (the chair is enough for at least 2 more weeks) and nikitta-she has the "story". Her mum will be mentioned again and again,and that will be enough to save her. Now Ray has the story of him originally chucked out but re-instated (remember Sam from pop idol 2) and also Eton Road have that angle. So left with Dionne (who no-one seems to vote for), Ashley who is the diva, 4sure who no one seems to remember and Mac Donalds. (i left out Ben as he is too talented this week with rod songs esp Maggie May).
So i think Dionne won't go as she is a woman. I mean that because otherwise we'll have 3 females in a total of 10 acts left, really won't be good viewing. So Macdonalds and 4sure. i feel 4sure have much more talent than macdonalds, louis won't let 4sure go this soon. if he is choosing, then he'll chuck macdonalds. And also ashley, well earlier mentioned been a tiff with simon cowell, could see a shocker? On xtra factor-home truths was macdonalds, so i'm going 15pts macdonalds at 2.9 and also 2.5 pts ashley @ 12s. I know louis will lose 2 acts straight away but would he does have a tough task this year...
for the outrights, my early choice of Ray looks not so good..but not dead. I still feel he has enough to get to top 4, bit of a cheeky smile could get him quite a long way. Last week, i really felt robert played a good story and eton road performed the best. Even though they are odd looking, they are louis' act and with that defo stay until top 4. i can't see producers allowing one of the managers no acts in the top 4. Robert i think is worth a nibble at 18s, could be a good one to lay off, i think he will be the taylor hicks of the show-the character. i can't see any artist stiffening so short like shayne last year that no other act has a possible hope, ben is too much like chris daughtry from usa idol-too one dimensional and will get found out later on in the competition. with that eton road i think at 11s,even though a bit shorter than i wanted still will be there until top 4 and i doubt anyone will be that long by then. so 5 pts on robert @ 18s and eton road @11s each.

[Beanie]

Interesting thoughts freddie and well reasoned.

The one thing I would take issue with is the 'Chris Daughtry' comment - I'm not disputing that he can be compared to him, but put simply this isn't American Idol, and there isn't the talent to find him out. If Chris Daughtry was in X Factor he'd walk it...fact is I don't see people like Taylor, Katherine etc in this...I see someone like Nikkita at 4th favourite, someone who wouldn't have got anywhere near the final 10 on AI imo.

Maybe thats a tad harsh on the field - Leona is quality I think and could easily nick favouritism at some point.

[Beanie]

Song choices in full:

Nikitta - Bring It On Home
Raymond - What A Wonderful World
Leona - The First Cut Is The Deepest
Ashley - I'd Rather Go Blind

Eton Road - This Old Heart Of Mine
4Sure - You're In My Heart
The MacDonald Brothers - Sailing

Ben - Maggie May
Robert - Try A Little Tenderness
Dionne - Tonight's The Night
Kerry - I Don't Want To Talk About It

[Beanie]

Quick thoughts as not long left.

I still think Ben, Leonna, and Eton Road offer decent odds for the top slot in their respective groups...just seems to be zero competition to them.

Song wise, Ben and Leonna have the well known songs and should strengthen, could Nikitta have a problem?

Dunno, there's a few songs I don't know there.

Not made a move yet as I want to see who goes first and can't find it anywhere...but the McDonalds are nearing 3s which is tempting.

[trickrick]

Right - I reckon the McDonald Brothers will pull it off tonight. I cannot see Dionne making much of a ROd Stewart song, so I've gone for Dionne for elimination at 3.5

Dionne to be eliminated at 3.5 - 1/10 stake

[Beanie]

Leonna up first but that will be no problem for her.

As I say I'm not sure trick - I can't see either Sharon or Simon keeping the McDonalds in against anyone - its the personality factor for me. Having said that I'm thinking twice too and staying away at the mo.

Leonna sounds decent again - if anything she's a far less risky prospect than Ben as her performances are a whole lot more natural.

[trickrick]

Bloody hell, and within the bat of an eyelid Dionne is 4.7 !!!

[trickrick]

Leonna is certainly one to shortlist for the outright market..