American Idol 2007 (Season Six!)

[stereoman]

Outright markets from Skybet and the next elimination market from Bet365.



Blake Lewis is favourite to be the 'last man standing' but Chris Richardson as pointed could easily outlast him. I can't see Chris Sligh lasting the pace really. What a freaky final three if it was Melinda Doolittle, Lakisha Jones and Chris Sligh!

Next elimination is a crapshoot in the early weeks. Haley Scarnato shocked a few people in not being eliminated and surviving against Sabrina Sloan. She is probably the most likely to go this week but will we get an early shock!? Sanjaya Malakar will be kept on for a few weeks for 'comedy value'. I think I said that about Kevin Covais last season and he only lasted two weeks!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America...mination_chart

With Jason Head gone last week, it seems to pay dividends to know what was being sung (what was with the gamble on Blake Lewis to be eliminated though!? Misclick!? ).

[trickrick]

if it wasnt for Haley still being there I'd be lumping on that twat Phil Stacey to be eliminated this week big time. Surely he has no more than 2 weeks left as he is appalling.. ...in fact I'm still tempted with that 5/1 on offer...hmmm..

[stereoman]

Brandon Rogers was eliminated. A little surprised by that but hey, deadwood can't win.

[stereoman]

Outright and elimination odds from Bet365, top male and top female odds from Skybet:





Sanjaya was the favourite to be eliminated this week but it's now Haley (Skybet make Sanjaya the slight favourite at 15/8 and make Haley 2/1 though).

It was between Brandon, Phil and Sanjaya last week. I don't see too much variation that it'll be Phil, Sanjaya and one other. Phil could be a value pick to go this week. AI sometimes likes to make pariahs of certain folks and Sanjaya is the one being picked on this year so he's probably still got a few weeks left before they get bored of him.

[anothamug]

I got round to watching it last night, the judges were saying they was only three that could win, I would probably make that six. The top six in the betting, I think blake and chris are in the wrong places in the betting, chris had more stage presence and audience reaction than the others. I agree phil makes some betting value to be next to go he is just devoid of personality and looks like an extra from alien nation. He was bottom two this time and no reason why not again.
I prefer lakisha but melinda and jordin are dangerous for top female, the top male is between the two chrises and blake, it's early but I'll give more thoughts to the 9/2 on chris richardson as there is little in the top three guys so it makes value to be on them.

[trickrick]

Well Brandon never really got to show his potential.. Bit of a shit song choice by him which he seemed to have a tendancy to do. He sang first, which is a notoriously bad time to win votes, and then of course the dickhead forgot his words.. Another of my picks goes out..And to rub salt in the wounds - that tosspot Phil Stacey survived...

[stereoman]

Have to say I was a little bit surprised that Stephanie Edwards was eliminated but it was either her or Chris Richardson so something had to give. Lots of 'steam' as they say on the offshore gambling forums (into 3/1 third favourite to be eliminated she was! ).

Gambling 911 reported that BetCRIS paid out a few thousand dollars to some lucky punters because of Stephanie's elimination.

A well thought out deduction or something to raise the hackles amongst the conspiracy theorists out there (particularly when coupled with some random AI publicist who blabbed on Howard Stern's radio show that the eliminations were less than random)?

Jordin Sparks has seemingly gotten quite a few good notices and has moved into third favourite to win the whole thing. On the surface, Jordin has more 'star quality' than either Melinda or Lakisha but hey, didn't Chris Daughtry have more 'star quality' than Taylor Hicks? The best contestants don't win.

A couple of the offshore books have match-ups (which contestant will last the longest?) props but they're a bit random.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Elimination odds from Bet365 and BetCRIS:



If my habit of being a week early is anything to go by, it's bye, bye Phil. These next few weeks look a bit hard to assess and anyone from Gina, Haley, Phil or Sanjaya could easily go. No bet from me anyhow.

NOTE: Some action on Sanjaya over at BetCRIS moving him from fourth to being favourite to be eliminated.

[trickrick]

Time for a review of the singers..

Ok lets quickly rule out the contestants that cannot win and in the running for elimination…

Phil Stacey – How this guy is still in is beyond me – a blatent patriot fervour towards the armed forces by the viewing public is the only reason about a singer who blatently lacks any likeability and talent

Sanjaya – Well this – as Stereo has implied before is your 'typical crap singer but the public adore them’ syndrome. That blubbing kid in the audience will have done wonders for him , and the very fact that he can’t sing means nothing as every young girl fancies him and every older woman wants to cuddle him. Will last another 2-3 weeks until he is up against an heavyweight.

Haley – (already placed - 0.4 pts stake @ 65) Rock chick- sings well at times but is too likely to be shown up with a song out of her genre. Doesn’t really have any real charisma and highly likely to be a goner shortly (along with my 0.4 pt investment on her at 65’s..)

Gina – Well she’s one of those young fit girls that can’t sing – but hey who cares when she’s wearing a micro skirt and a cleavage hanging out. Visually she is probably the only decent eye candy left and if she performs one of those ‘fun songs’ she did last week, she could well hang on a bit longer.

Summary
Gina and Sanjaya – although potential for the bottom two, should survive against one of the other two above. Ok there is nothing more unpredicatable than a talent show and literally anyone could be in the bottom two – witness Chris Richardson last week. However I believe it should be between Phil and Haley for the kick this week, and I will be praying that the annoying dick Phil Stacey goes..

Phil to be eliminated this week at 4.33 (Skybet) – 2 pt stake

Ok Lets look at the rest of the contestants..

Phil Sligh (Already laid off to break even) Everyone’s favourite fat geek who is a genuine funny guy willing to take the piss out of himself. When he tries to take himself too seriously or drop the glasses he loses his appeal. Good singer and a novelty act, but aint got the real presnce or ability to win it..

Chris Richardson (Already placed - 1 pt stake @ 26) Well that was a shocker last week..Highly praised by all the judges and yet in the bottom two. Cannot guage that, and strugging to get into the American viewers mind. I honestly think he has potential to get to the last 4 and possibly best male, but he needs to be consistantly good and probably needs a ‘great’ performance in the next week or two..

Lakisha – Sorry but I do not rate her at all.. As I’ve said before, she lacks any really personality – in fact she smacks a tad of a growing arrogance due to the compliments she has receiving. Lets face facts – she like many of these gospel choir, backing singer large black girls – nothing more – nothing less and although she’ll last a few more week – she aint gonna win it..

Jordin Sparks – Well Jordin is one of these juvenile talented singers. Only 17 she is certainly someone who has a great talent and who I rate as the second best singer in the competition. However under 18’s just don’t seem to win these types of contests, and I do get the impression that the judges feel uneasy at seeing a young winner who has the all future ahead of them as opposed to the older singer with the bad luck story. Just cannot see her winning.

Blake Lewis – To be honest I was wondering what all the fuss was when he was suddenly pitched as the top male. However he is growing on me and although I find his ‘beatbox’ annoying he is a good singer and possibly a finalist..

Melinda (already placed – 2.5 pts staked between odds range of 6 – 5.6) Accomplished beyond belief and by far the best singer. She’s got a nice friendly persona and appears genuine. She also has that hard luck story (always the bridesmaid never the bride type of career). She also looks a bit weird which may help. However – although I have the majority of cash on her I am worried. I am worried because I really think that she may have peaked to early. She also needs to change her song choice a bit – She’s ok belting out the power vocals on a balled, but she needs to show she can turn her voice to other styles. I still reckon she should win though (and I hope so..)

Already placed
Melinda (already placed – 2.5 pts staked between odds range of 6 – 5.6)
Chris Richardson (Already placed - 1 pt stake @ 26)
Haley – (already placed - 0.4 pts stake @ 65)

Gonna absorb my liablilty on Blake as I feel he could well make the final..

Blake to win American Idol – 1 pt stake @ 7.6 Betfair

Liability on the rest (bar Chris Sligh) - 6.5 pt

Finally a couple more bets placed..

4 pt stake @ 2.59 (Pinnacle) – At least one male make the Final Could see a 3 way carve up between Melinda fans, Lakisha fans and Jordin fans leading the way for a male to get to the final. Males seem to make the finals of most talent shows and I see no reason why Blake nor Chris can’t give Melinda a challenge in the final..

6 pt stake @ 1.92 (Pinnacle) Blake to last longer than Lakisha – Really based on the comments above..Blake can make the Final – Lakisha can’t..

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Gambling 911/DialIdol says Jordin Sparks, Haley Scarnato and Chris Sligh could be in the bottom three tonight.

http://www.gambling911.com/American-...gh-032807.html

[trickrick]

Jeeeeeeez....Chris Sligh now 1.78 to be eliminated this week... Looks like Phil pulled it out of the bag this week..Wanker! I give up on elimination betting - far too random.

[stereoman]

Yeah, the eliminations seem nigh-on impossible as Chris Sligh did indeed go after losing out to Haley and Phil as they were in the bottom three. Chris Sligh never did justify the ridiculously early tag of being THE favourite ante-post.

This week is 'American Classics' with Tony Bennett. Next week's theme is...Jennifer Lopez. This week's elimination odds from Bet365, BetCRIS and Skybet:



Although Phil surely has to go some time, I don't think it'll be this week for him to be gone (this week may play to his 'strengths'). I don't think we'll get too many surprises and the bottome three should be Haley, Phil and probably one of Chris or Gina.

I like the 15/8 over at Skybet on Haley Scarnato to be gone if the bottom two is a showdown between Gina and Haley particularly if we get a 'gender balance' elimination in that a female gets eliminated. Gina at 5/1 to be gone is tempting.

The producers will play out this Sanjaya crap until he reaches the final five and then get rid of him (he is this year's Scott Savol). Pinnacle's odds on where he'll finish:



Interesting to note that Blake Lewis has moved into joint second-favourite to win the whole thing with Skybet although the offshore outfits like Bodog, Pinnacle and The Greek are mixed as to who out of Blake, Jordin and Lakisha is Melinda's nearest rival.

Lakisha Jones to win AI6 is currently OTB over at Paddy Power (!?).

[stereoman]

Whoops! Double post!

[stereoman]

Originally Posted by stereoman

Gina at 5/1 to be gone is tempting.

Why didn't I place a cover bet!?

Annoyingly the prices at Betfair were proved right again.

[stereoman]

Well I'm not going to put too much effort this week because I ain't bothering to put a bet on it. Money has gone on Lakisha and Chris Richardson over at BetCRIS and Pinnacle but Phil remains the general favourite ATB to be eliminated.

http://www.gambling911.com/American-...es-041007.html

Haley is the general consensus choice to be eliminated over at 2+2.

It's Jennifer Lopez week...for fook's sake this is the time that Phil goes!?