X Factor

[Beanie]

Only market up just now is the winning manager one:

Cowell - 2.20
Osbourne - 3.40
Walsh - 3.40

A lot depends on what group they get to manage(Groups, 16-24, 25+), with 16-24, 25+ and then groups the most likely to win, in that order.

Last season Walsh had the 16-24, Osbourne had the 25+ and Cowell the groups, so that combination is out of the question.

The end of the show on Saturday showed Simon with a huge grin on his face - and that can only mean that he has been given the 16-24s...he'd never have looked like that had he got the 16-24s.

That then means that Sharon will get the groups and Louis the 25+.

So the value on Simon then? Not at those prices as it looks to me like the adjustment has already happened with the Cowell price dipping from 2.60 to 2.20 recently.

However, I'd be fairly certain that the group allocation will be as above, and so it will be worth watching the prices this week and using that info(which doesn't take too much brainpower to figure out, but won't be known by the majority of punters) to get in a decent position early on.

[Beanie]

Infact Bet365 has 2.40 still up for Simon - worth a little look.

[stereoman]

Today's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1300: Simon Cowell couldn't hide his pleasure on Saturday night when he was told that he would be managing the under 25's section of the 2006 X-Factor competition.

The straight-talking judge made no secret of his desire to manage the youngsters and Blue Square quickly moved to make him odds on at 10/11 from 6/4 to end the series as the manager of the final winner.

On the basis of what we have seen to date, Louis Walsh looks to have a tough with the Groups and is the outsider of the three at 5/2 while Sharon Osbourne seemed happy enough with the 'oldies' and trades at 9/4.

Blue Square spokesperson Kate Miller said: "X Factor continues to be one of the most popular reality TV shows and betting interest will build and build through the autumn as punters get to grips with the acts that have made it through from the initial round of auditions.

"From what I have seen personally, Simon Cowell has two or three truly talented youngsters in his group and I would be surprised if he doesn't end up as the winning manager this time around."

However punters beware that on next Saturday's show there is a scene where Cowell suggests he may well have drawn the short straw after all.

Bettingzone suggests the viewers watch out for 26-year-old Ben, who sang a Sam Cooke number brilliantly in one of the audition shows.

The Michael Bolton look-a-like will be in Sharon's category and could well help his mentor win her first X-Factor.

[Beanie]

Outright odds are out...

Let's have a run through:

Kerry 7.00

She's the Scottish lass in the wheelchair - not a bad singer but not particularly good either, and I doubt she will sustain any sort of challenge. Does not merit joint favouritism IMO and should be more towards the middle of the pack.

Ben 7.00

Much more of a contender - lon hair and a decent rock voice that will lend itself well to crowd pleasing songs that the X Factor does worst. Should perhaps be a touch shorter.

Ashley 7.50

Decent singer, but he's not the most likeable guy, and I don't know if he will be able/willing to go after the pop vote. If not I don't see him winning - price prob about right IMO.

Leonna 9.00

Great singer - likeable - has the voice to do the vote winning big ballads - a contender for sure.

Robert 9.00

Odds look right - a decent and versatile voice, but very little presence and doubtful star quality.

Nikitta 11.00

Yet another that its easy to draw a comparison with from last series - a slightly better singer than Chenai, but she drones on and on about her dead mum and that will get tiresome after a while.

Robert 13.00

Decent singer but no better than Andy from last series, with even less appeal. Very little chance I think.

The Unconventionals 14.00

Not sure they should head the group betting - something different for sure, but previous X Factors have proved that that doesn't guarantee votes, especially given that in a few months they will no longer be something new.

MacDonald Brothers 15.00

Decent sound, but very little charisma. Likeable tho and will drift through a few weeks.

Eton Road 23.00

Sound pretty poor, look strange, and should go after a few shows.

4Sure 29.00

Sound fairly decent actually - don't think they can win but they have the inventiveness to survive a week or two.

Dionne 41.00

Yeah - poor as the odds suggest and has 0 chance of winning. Head on the block for this week.

[Beanie]

As usual, black contestants are at a huge disadvantage as they don't fare well in reality shows...that puts a negative beside Nikitta, Robert, 4Sure and Dionne, and even Ashley and Leonna.

Always worth remembering too that voting should see the bottom two go to a judges decision, and that judges will always make decisions based on ratings/drama. Back the decisions that will see the XFactor hit the front pages of the papers, not the decisions that you think the judges will make if given a free choice.

[Beanie]

Looking again the field looks pretty weak...I'll lay Kerry straight away as she should not be one of the favourites. Ben I think merits his early price and I'll take that just now. Ashley is a danger but his attitude might well be his undoing. Ray too could spoil the party so I'll go with him. Leonna should last aswell and a small bet there will complete my outright betting just now.

Ben @ 7.00 with SkyBet

Ray @ 8.50 with Coral

Lay Kerry @ 7.20 with Betfair

Leonna @ 9.00 with Coral

On the group betting, again Ben's odds look way too high as Kerry is being overestimated.

Ben to win the Over 25s @ 2.25 with PaddyPower

Elimination betting to be done when odds available.

In the meantime, Stereo, trickrick and the rest of the reality show whores, the floor is yours!

[stereoman]

Tbh I couldn't give a fuck until later on when all the joke contenders have been eliminated. It's The Match tonight on Sky One!

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Well 'The Match' is over and it's time to get back on the wagon...Eton Road and Ray not disqualified.

Odds for 1st Eviction are up from William Hill:

Dionne 13/8
Eton Road 7/2
4 Sure 4/1
Robert 8/1
The Unconventionals 10/1
Macdonald Brothers 10/1
Ray 20/1
Nikkita 20/1
Ashley 20/1
Leonna 25/1
Kerry 25/1
Ben 25/1

[stereoman]

Bettingzone are tipping Ben to win it all.

http://www.bettingzone.co.uk/story_g...al_190858.html

[Beanie]

Quite right I say too. Not sure about their bit on the Unconventionals picking up a cult following tho - there's no chance of that.

Will sort out my eviction thoughts on Sat morning.

[trickrick]

Kerry and her disability is one of the main reasons why I am tentative of betting on a winner as yet. Take away the wheelchair and what do you get? An ok singer that would have not got to this stage. Add the wheelchair and you have an extremely powerful contender.. Hmm..So you have to consider is this a combination that will be strong with the audience's heartstrings. Will she do wheelchair bound people what Pete did for Turrets? Does SImon Cowell want such a person to win X-Factor. What will it do for the show's credibiliy as a showcase for singing talent. Or is it really just a light entertainment programme and the ratings and the 'stories' are all that matters??

Such questions mean that the current 8.6 price on Kerry could be a crackin price.. Still I am hanging fire I think on the outrights..

However the elimination tonight is a different story.. I have whittled it down to three.. I wish I knew what order they were singing in as that has a major bearing during the first few weeks with so many singers..

It was interesting that on the Xtra factor last night they picked out a person where they had filmed family and friends to wish them the best, how much they love them, etc and the person they picked was Dionne. Is this in recongition that they feel she is nailed on to go out? I'm not so sure as I remember last year there was a similar singer who got to the last 4..Can't remember her name at the mo. Dionne could pull off a great start and be in for a while. However if she is one of the first singers to go then she could well be a gonna.

4Sure are a decent act but they seem to lack any kind of personality as an act. If they pull off a reasonble song they should survive.

Eton Road shouldnt have been in this but for the the disqualification of the other group.. Cannot see them progressing further than week 1. They arent particularly good, and lack any kind of image or personality - apart from the wierd gay chappie that looks like he's on the brink of death.. I am taking them to go with maybe some in-play laying during the show..

Elimination at week 1 - Eton Road @ 6.2 - 1/10 stake

[Beanie]

Song choices for tonight(Motown theme.)

Under 24

Ashley - Easy originally a hit for Lionel Richie

Ray - Ben originally a hit for Michael Jackson

Leona - I'll Be There originally a hit for the Jackson 5

Nikitta - Heaven Must Of Sent You originally a hit for the Elgins

Over 24

Ben - Tracks Of My Tears originally a hit for Smokey Robinson

Dionne - I'm Gonna Make You Love Me originally a hit for Diana Ross & The Supremes

Kerry - You Are The Sunshine Of My Life originally a hit for Stevie Wonder

Rob - All Night Long originally a hit for Lionel Richie

Groups

4Sure - What Becomes Of The Broken Hearted originally a hit for Jimmy Ruffin

The Unconventionals - Dancing In The Streets originally a hit for Martha Reeves & The Vandellas

MacDonald Brothers - Three Times A Lady originally a hit for The Commodores

Eton Road - My Girl originally a hit for The Temptations

[stereoman]

Was it Brenda Edwards you were thinking of, rick?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_X_Factor_UK_series_2

Just for posterity and future reference...odds and sods from Ladbrokes:

[trickrick]

Yeah Brenda was the one I was thinking of..

The mind boggles on how the Unconventionals will sing 'Dancing in the street'!!! :loon

[Hippy Dave]

Definitley think Unconventionals will be the cult act this year, just as we saw with Chico last year (although more talented). Watched the show last week and already forgotten who half of them are though. Who's the long haired one, he should do well?