The 83rd Annual Academy Awards 2011

[stereoman]

More than a bit early right now but Centrebet and Victor Chandler have odds ante-post as to what will end up winning 'Best Picture'.

Centrebet ~

INCEPTION 5.00
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT 7.00
BLACK SWAN 9.00
THE SOCIAL NETWORK 9.00
TOY STORY 3 9.00
ANOTHER YEAR 11.00
THE TREE OF LIFE 11.00
THE WAY BACK 11.00
BLUE VALENTINE 13.00
HEREAFTER 13.00
NEVER LET ME GO 13.00
TRUE GRIT 13.00
127 HOURS 17.00
MIRAL 17.00
SECRETARIAT 17.00
SOMEWHERE 17.00
THE FIGHTER 17.00
BIUTIFUL 21.00
CONVICTION 21.00
FAIR GAME 21.00
SHUTTER ISLAND 21.00
THE KING'S SPEECH 21.00
WINTER'S BONE 21.00
GET LOW 26.00
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 26.00
LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS 26.00
THE AMERICAN 26.00
THE TOWN 26.00
YOU WILL MEET A TALL DARK STRANGER 26.00
ALL GOOD THINGS 34.00
HOWL 34.00
RABBIT HOLE 34.00
THE BEAVER 34.00
WALL STREET:MONEY NEVER SLEEPS 34.00

Victor Chandler ~

The American 8/1
Hereafter 8/1
Miral 8/1
Toy Story 3 8/1
Biutiful 10/1
The Kids Are Alright 10/1
Inception 12/1
The Tree of Life 12/1
Somewhere 12/1
The Social Network 12/1
Get Low 14/1
The Way Back 16/1
Love & Other Drugs 16/1
Another Year 16/1
The Fighter 16/1
Shutter Island 16/1
Blue Valentine 18/1
Never Let Me Go 18/1
The Ghost Writer 20/1
The King's Speech 20/1
The Conspirato­r 20/1
Winter's Bone 20/1
True Grit 22/1
Morning Glory 22/1
The Debt 25/1
Conviction 25/1
The Beaver 25/1
Black Swan 25/1
Rabbit Hole 25/1
Secretaria­t 25/1
How to Train Your Dragon 25/1
London Boulevard 25/1
127 Hours 25/1
Fair Game 25/1
The Town 25/1
Adjustment Bureau 25/1
You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger 25/1
Due Date 33/1
Howl 33/1
The Special Relationsh­ip 33/1
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps 33/1
Jack Goes Boating 33/1

==============

This year's slate of Oscarbait doesn't feel at all memorable, and nothing out of these line-ups scream 'BEST PICTURE WINNER!!' to me.

I can see Inception getting a few nominations but science-fiction at the Oscars tends to be treated like a red headed stepchild. Never Let Me Go might get the BAFTA voting bloc behind it and it'll place but it's also science-fiction so unlikely to get too much of anything. Toy Story 3 will definitely place but it won't win because of the bias against animation.

The Social Network looks to be a big hitter but the subject matter (specifically Facebook) may see it get the snobby treatment and that it'll be snubbed.

...feels like the year The Departed won where we'll get a 'default' winner.

[stereoman]

Two films which are getting positive press right now are Black Swan and The King's Speech. The odds for Inception has come in a bit for it to win Best Picture at the Oscars and it's something stupid like 7/4 over at Centrebet before the industry awards have been given out.

Apropos of nothing and I don't really want to start needless threads, I'll put up odds for two separate events.

* The Venice Film Festival
* The Toronto Film Festival

Here are the odds from bwin (even though I hate their fooking guts) as to what film will win the Golden Lion over in Venice:

Black Swan 17/10
Somewhere 4/1
La Pecora Nera 8/1
We Believed 8/1
Miral 10/1
Venus Noir 10/1
Happy Few 10/1
Attenberg 10/1
La Passione 12/1
Silent Souls 12/1
13 Assassins 12/1
Road to Nowhere 14/1
Norwegian Wood 14/1

Odds from Victor Chandler as to what will win the Golden Lion in Venice:

Black Swan 6/4
Miral 7/2
Somewhere 4/1
Road To Nowhere 6/1
La Passione 12/1
13 Assassins 12/1
Barney's Version 12/1
Blada Triste de Trompeta 14/1
Potiche 14/1
La Pecora Nera 14/1
Norwegian Wood 16/1
Venus Noir 16/1
The Solitude of Prime Munbers 18/1
We Believed 20/1
Happy Few 20/1
Promises Written in Water 20/1
Post Mortem 20/1
Detective Dee & Mystery Of Phantom Flame 20/1
Three 20/1
Silent Souls 25/1
Meek's Cutoff 25/1
Attenberg 33/1

Odds as to what film will win the People's Choice award over at Toronto from Victor Chandler:

Biutiful 5/1
Miral 5/1
Another Year 6/1
Black Swan 7/1
Hereafter 8/1
Blue Valentine 10/1
The King's Speech 10/1
Of Gods and Men 11/1
Barney's Version 12/1
The Town 12/1
Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall his Past Lives 12/1
I'm Still Here 14/1
Bunraku 14/1
127 Hours 16/1
Conviction 16/1
The Illusionis­t 16/1
Passion Play 16/1
The Conspirato­r 16/1
13 Assassins 16/1
Rabbit Hole 20/1
The Whistleblo­wer 20/1
The Debt 20/1
Potiche 20/1
Insidious 20/1
Jack Goes Boating 22/1
Made in Dagenham 25/1

[stereoman]

Paddy Power get in on the act of trying to size up the Oscars ante-post.

Best Picture ~

Another Year 6/1
Love and Other Drugs 6/1
Toy Story 3 6/1
The Social Network 8/1
The Tree of Life 8/1
True Grit 8/1
Inception 10/1
The Kids Are All Right 10/1
127 Hours 14/1
Winter's Bone 14/1
Miral 18/1
Get Low 20/1
Secretariat 20/1
Shutter Island 20/1
Black Swan 20/1
The Fighter 20/1
Fair Game 25/1
The American 33/1
Never Let Me Go 33/1
Somewhere 33/1

No odds for The King's Speech eh? Hmmm.

Best Director ~

Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life) 11/4
Christopher Nolan (Inception) 11/4
Martin Scorsese (Shutter Island) 4/1
David Fincher (The Social Network) 6/1
Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine) 8/1
Peter Weir (The Way Back) 8/1
Danny Boyle (127 Hours) 10/1
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan) 20/1
Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right) 20/1
Clint Eastwood (Hereafter) 20/1
Debra Granik (Winter's Bone) 20/1
Mike Leigh (Another Year) 25/1
David O. Russell (The Fighter) 25/1
Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit) 33/1
Mark Romanek (Never Let Me Go) 33/1

Doubt Scorsese and Boyle will win again so soon.

Will 'Inception' win 5 or more Oscars? Yes 3/1, No n/a

Only these categories count: Picture; Director; Original Screenplay; Actress; Supporting Actress; Actor; Supporting Actor; Film Editing; Visual Effects; Sound Editing; Sound Mixing; Art Direction; Cinematography; Original Score; Costume Design; Make-up; Original Song.

Almost guaranteed to win Visual Effects. Everything else is up for grabs but I doubt it'll get two Oscars let alone five. It might get enough nominations that it'll have chances it will get five or more but 3/1 is skinny enough to leave it alone.

Also odds for the Venice Film Festival:



Going by the hype it's between the front two. Arofnosky's won before in 2008 for The Wrestler so Silent Souls perhaps should be favourite. It's 16/1 from 25/1 over at Victor Chandler!

Golden Lion - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[stereoman]

Tried several times to get at the 16/1 (Victor Chandler wouldn't have any of it!) but no sooner had I typed that Victor Chandler, Paddy Power and even those scummers at bwin shut up shop. Winner of the Golden Lion isn't announced until Saturday but obviously they aren't taking any chances!

Hope 'Silent Souls' loses now just to annoy those in the apparent know.

[stereoman]

Quentin Tarantino gives the Golden Lion to his ex-girlfriend Sofia Coppola for Somewhere. Should have realised.

VENICE: Sofia Coppola’s ‘Somewhere’ wins Golden Lion

[stereoman]

The King's Speech wins the People's Choice award at the Toronto Film Festival. Just watch it's odds drop for it to win Best Picture at the Oscars.

It'll be there or thereabouts but will the guild awards agree? Colin Firth has some goodwill last year and might have even won the Best Actor Oscar if it wasn't for them feeling it was time to reward Jeff Bridges.

Centrebet's odds were stupidly unfavourable. Inception, The King's Speech and The Social Network were all below 6/1.

Elsewhere, Natalie Portman's turn in Black Swan seems to be enough for her to get the Best Actress Oscar apparently.

[fanaticore]

Inception will win the Best Picture in Academy Awards. For sure.

[ONEDUNME]

Thanks for your thoughts Fanaticore and welcome to TDP

[Wizard of Oz]

Early days at the moment with many of the pre cursors still to come, however from what ive been reading its looking like a three horse race with Kings Speech, Social Network and Inception.
The Kings Speech appears to be the traditional type of film that gets the plaudits around oscar time so that would be the frontrunner for me, although the Social Network is the one to watch as it gains momentum.
Inception should get nominated but I think its clearly behind these 2 and would be surprised if it were to win.
Natlaie Portman has a good chance for actress, but imo Annette Bening is a moral and would be reluctant to bet against her. She's head of the actors branch and has lost twice before so she's massively overdue and going along the lines of Bridges last year I think they will reward her.
Best actor at this stage looks between Colin Firth (Kings Speech) and James Franco (127 hrs) with both receiving good reviews out of Toronto, but theres a long way to go!

[stereoman]

Wouldn't disagree. William Hill give a 6/4 quote on Colin Firth to win the Best Actor Oscar for The King's Speech so someone's obviously trying to bet on him early. If it wasn't for the fact that it was Jeff Bridges' turn he may have very well won it last year for A Single Man.

James Franco's never been nominated before. His chances much like Colin Firth's depend on how the precursor awards pan out but you can call it 1-0 to Colin Firth already as BAFTA will go for the home boy to give him an almost unprecedented second consecutive Best Actor BAFTA award. Sean Penn's getting some good press for Fair Game but he surely won't win a third Oscar.

Ladbrokes and bwin have some fairly banal propositions. Victor Chandler setting out their stall in regards what will win 'Best Picture' with The King's Speech 11/8, The Social Network 4/1, Inception 5/1, 127 Hours 6/1 and True Grit 8/1. It's 10/1 bar.

[grsydney]

Thanks for all the information. There is no mention at all of Mao's Last Dancer which surprises me. It maybe and independent film put out by Goldwyn but it has had great reviews and has won quite a few of the festival awards as well as been runner up to Precious at last years Toronto Film Festival.

[stereoman]

Nah, no chance. MGM haven't the money to promote it and the other studios will campaign heavily to get who they want in instead.

Gurus Ring in for November

The King's Speech still out in front!? Hmmm. Wish I got on at 20/1 because I'd be sitting very sweet. Only the industry awards indifference to it would change the outcome it would appear.

Don't know why Paddy Power don't have the director of TKS in their Best Director odds! They still have David Fincher favourite. Tom Hooper's probably a bit of an 'unknown' to most folks that's why.

Tom Hooper (director) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A mixture of the ridiculous and the obvious, here are the odds from Victor Chandler:

Best Picture ~

The King's Speech 7/4
The Social Network 3/1
Inception 7/1
127 Hours 7/1
True Grit 8/1
The Kids Are Alright 9/1
Black Swan 10/1
The Way Back 11/1
Toy Story 3 12/1
Another Year 12/1
Somewhere 12/1
The Fighter 12/1
The Tree of Life 14/1
The Town 14/1
Love & Other Drugs 14/1
Made in Dagenham 16/1
Biutiful 16/1
Get Low 16/1
Blue Valentine 18/1
Never Let Me Go 18/1
The American 20/1
Hereafter 20/1
The Ghost Writer 20/1
The Conspirato­r 20/1
Winter's Bone 20/1
Morning Glory 22/1
Miral 25/1
Shutter Island 25/1
The Debt 25/1
Conviction 25/1
The Beaver 25/1
Rabbit Hole 25/1
How to Train Your Dragon 25/1
London Boulevard 25/1
Fair Game 25/1
Adjustment Bureau 25/1
You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger 25/1
Secretaria­t 33/1
Due Date 33/1
Howl 33/1
The Special Relationsh­ip 33/1
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps 33/1
Jack Goes Boating 33/1

Best Actor 2011 ~

Colin Firth - The King's Speech 11/10
James Franco - 127 Hours 4/1
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network 4/1
Robert Duvall - Get Low 11/2
Jeff Bridges - True Grit 6/1
Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine 10/1
Javier Bardem - Biutiful 10/1
Jim Broadbent - Another Year 12/1
Mark Wahlberg - The Fighter 12/1
Jim Sturgess - The Way Back 16/1
Paul Giamatti - Barney's Version 20/1
Leonardo DiCaprio - Inception 20/1
Sean Penn - Fair Game 20/1
Stephen Dorff - Somewhere 25/1
Matt Damon - Hereafter 25/1

Best Actress 2011 ~

Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right 6/4
Natalie Portman - Black Swan 2/1
Lesley Manville - Another Year 4/1
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone 6/1
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole 7/1
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine 9/1
Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right 10/1
Sally Hawkins - Made In Dagenham 10/1
Anne Hathaway - Love and Other Drugs 10/1
Naomi Watts - Fair Game 12/1
Diane Lane - Secretaria­t

[Rob44]

Golden Globe noms in:


MOVIES
Best Picture - Drama
"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"Inception"
"The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"
Best Picture - Musical or Comedy
"Alice in Wonderland"
"Burlesque"
"The Kids Are All Right"
"Red"
"The Tourist"
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
James Franco, "127 Hours"
Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"
Mark Wahlberg, "The Fighter"
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Halle Berry, "Frankie & Alice"
Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Johnny Depp, "Alice in Wonderland"
Johnny Depp, "The Tourist"
Paul Giamatti, "Barney's Version"
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Love & Other Drugs"
Kevin Spacey, "Casino Jack"
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical Comedy
Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
Anne Hathaway, "Love & Other Drugs"
Angelina Jolie, "The Tourist"
Julianne Moore, "The Kids Are All Right"
Emma Stone, "Easy A"
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
Michael Douglas, "Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps"
Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network"
Jeremy Renner, "The Town"
Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Amy Adams, "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"
Mila Kunis, "Black Swan"
Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Jackie Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"
Best Animated Feature
"Despicable Me"
"How to Train Your Dragon"
"The Illusionist"
"Tangled"
"Toy Story 3"
Best Director - Motion Picture
Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
David Fincher, "The Social Network"
Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
Christopher Nolan, "Inception"
David O. Russell, "The Fighter"
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, "127 Hours"
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, "The Kids Are All Right"
Christopher Nolan, "Inception"
David Seidler, "The King's Speech"
Aaron Sorkin, "The Social Network"
Best Original Song - Motion Picture
"Bound to You" - "Burlesque"
"Coming Home" - "Country Strong"
"I See The Light" - "Tangled"
"There's a Place for Us" - "The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader"
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" - Burlesque
Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Alexander Desplad, "The King's Speech"
Danny Elfman, "Alice in Wonderland"
A.R. Rahman, "127 Hours"
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, "The Social Network"
Hans Zimmer, "Inception"
Best Foreign Language Film
"Biutiful" - Spain
"The Concert" - France
"The Edge" - France
"I Am Love" - Italy
"In a Better World" - Denmark
Cecile B. DeMille Award
Robert De Niro

[stereoman]

The Social Network seems to be gobbling up critics awards left, right & centre right now. The Oscars will have Anne Hathaway & James Franco as they're looking for a 'younger' audience. Oh dear. Seems a win for the Facebook film at the Oscars is inevitable.

The BAFTAs will still go for The King's Speech though.

Golden Globes though there might be a battle between the two films but most of the other categories seem destined to go to the heavy favourites (The Kids Are All Right, David Fincher, Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Annette Bening, Johnny Depp and Christian Bale) with only Supporting Actress a bit of a contest.

[stereoman]

Whoops. Double post.