Election Constituency Betting

[Beanie]

Surprising to see some bookies pricing up every constituency for the election - a mammoth undertaking and nigh on impossible to keep a firm track of all their prices.

Anyway, one bet that had been on my radar before last weeks Leaders Debate was the Lib Dems to win Edinburgh South(the constituency I vote in.) Slightly annoyed that Clegg did so well as all its done is shorten the prices in a seat where I think they would have won anyway.

Let's get the stats and history sorted...

Prior to 2005 Nigel Griffiths held the seat very comfortably for Labour for over 10 years. Then for the 2005 election there were boundary changes to include certain areas of the old Edinburgh Pentland constituency(like Edinburgh South, by and large an affluent area.)

After the changes, there was a large swing to the Lib Dems, who gained 32% of the vote, just 405 votes behind Labour(0.9% diff.) Cons a further 3,500 back(8.2% diff to LD.)

Since then, Griffiths has become embroiled in the expenses scandal as well as his own sex scandal, and predictably agreed to step down for this election. Nevertheless, current candidate Ian Murray is running his campaign from Griffiths old office(still carrying the Griffiths name etc) and given the given this and Labour's struggles in the polls, their vote here is only going one way.

Odds of 4/1 Labour at VC are no surprise.

Conservatives improved considerably at the last election, a certain amount of which is due to the boundary changes(Edinburgh Pentland was Malcolm Rifkinds old seat and contains quite a few die hard tories.) 16% up to 24% last time out.

Neil Hudson is someone who is fairly well known in Edinburgh, but looks to be in the same mould to Gavin Brown who got 24% in 2005.

3.25 at VC if you fancy the tories.

Lib Dems have gone with Fred MacKintosh, likewise a fairly involved local politician.

As far as Im concerned the Lib Dems should take this with a few thousand to spare - the Scottish Parliament has a very similar constituency which Mike Pringle for the Lib Dems has won comfortably both in 2003 and 2007. 2007 results were:

Liberal Democrats Mike Pringle 11,398 35.0 +2.9
Labour Donald Anderson 9,469 29.1 -2.5
SNP Robert Holland 6,117 18.8 +4.7
Conservative Gavin Brown 5,589 17.2 +0.6

Admittedly Mike Pringle is pretty popular, but that is an asset here as he is heavily involved in the Lib Dems campaign, featured on all leaflets etc.

The Tories will do far better than that result suggests, and I'd expect them to beat their 24% in 2005, but to make up 3,500 on the Lib Dems looks far too big an ask.

The Lib Dems look set to increase their vote again and the indications are that a drop in Labour support will favour the Lib Dems. While this is a largely affluent area with lots of owner occupied homes that did well in the property boom, there are also a few council areas where a lot of the Labour support is and very few there will vote Conservative. I dont see where the Tories pick up the widespread support needed here.

Forget the SNP - 50/1 and you still wouldnt touch them at 100 times that, just not relevant at a Westminster election.

Im not too bothered about the Clegg effect as I think the LDs would have won it anyway, but I suppose it helps. I dont envisage many situations where the Lib Dems wont break 35% here, and if so the Tories wont come close to beating that, given that Labours core vote will remain fairly solid as it always does in the cities.

I'll finish by noting that this is Lib Dem target seat #5, it is Conservative target seat #76. I've had 2 Lib Dem leaflets through so far(one quite a while ago), nothing from the other parties.

All in all, I'm amazed that evens is available for this, so a chunky bet for me.

5pts Liberal Democrats to win Edinburgh South @ 2.00 with Corals

Hopefully a few more constituency nuggets to be found...

[MickeyPaul]

Cheers, Beanster. I managed to read all of that and it sounds like a decent bet.

[rcgills]

I'll have a little bit on that too, cheers Beanie

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

Whats conservative`s for South Ribble ?? Its a shoe in !! Stronghold in these parts

[Frodo]

If you want a free tenner you can stick £7.5k on the tories winning welwyn hatfield.

Luton South is interesting with a big movement against Labour who's previous MP was one of the chief pisstakers in the expenses scam. Esther Rantzen @ 6/1.

[Winrew]

First to declare , always Sunderland South ( 1/3 ) looks like the Governement are putting pressure on them to drag their feet and declare later in the night , they reckon the Tories will win the seat and dont want the bad vibes starting straight away..

Read an article in Private Eye about it anyway...

Have i got the right Salford ? Is Hazel Blears really a 1/14 shot to win ?

[slick]

Labour in Salford will be nailed on, I don't think its ever been anything else allthough in the last by-election the BNP did get a few council seats. they will be the only party to give Labour a run for their money. I think it was a by-election allthough it may have been the Euro voting, whatever it was the BNP did well and it was only last year.
Labour will still breeze Salford though.

[mean streets]

im having a singles and acca on the lib dems key target seats all need a shift of less than 1% although the prices wont be great.

[Beanie]

The Edin South Bet looks in great shape - a guardian poll only conducted in the Lib Dem target seats shows enough of a swing to win and win comfortably. Labour aren't registering anymore as a threat in the seat and its a 2 way fight between LD and the Cons(apparently.)

Guardian/ICM poll: Liberal Democrats set to gain at Labour's expense | Politics | The Guardian

Will the Conservatives really get that close? Polls would suggest not - prices seem to be based on the swing to the Tories on a UK level - but there's no swing to the Tories in Scotland.

Having a look at the Tories polling in Scotland

YouGov 18% (7th Apr)
YouGov 21% (8th Apr)
YouGov 17% (16th Apr)
YouGov 16% (17th Apr)
MORI 14% (23rd Apr)
YouGov 15% (23rd Apr)

Not making the necessary inroads. 1.73 still at Betfred, tempting to have another pop at that!

Glasgow North at 3.00 and Edinburgh North and Leith at 2.38 for the LDs the only other two Im looking at.

[Radoslav]

Ill try this one too but guys can you tell me when will we know the results ?

[rcgills]

The election is next Thursday, 6 May, Radoslav. Results will be known sometime that night or in the early hours of the morning of the 7th May.

[thesaint]

Originally Posted by The Grim Reaper

Whats conservative`s for South Ribble ?? Its a shoe in !! Stronghold in these parts

I'm in South Ribble, Grim!!

[thesaint]

From knowledge of local areas:

As Grim said, South Ribble will be conservatives for sure.
Southport: Lib Dems are a banker! It's been a Lib Dem stronghold for decades and always will be!

[traeth]

read this thread and I thought "I can contribute to this one" , but looks like the bookies have got this one right for my area, these odds from oddschecker so they are the best ones available

Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Plaid Cymru (1.01) Labour (26) Conservative (67) Liberal Democrat (101)
Louise Hughes (101) UKIP (126)

I would recommend Plaid , but not much value in that one

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

Cheers Traeth, ive emailed Yorkie, he says thanks - watch for Jamiemac1988 posting it in his new thread next Weds night - he`ll probably find a bit of evens somewhere too