American Idol 2010

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Right..Well we're eventually down to the Final 12, after the usual drawn out process that took a number of weeks after the auditions.. It definately looks like the girls are much stronger than the boys this year - and it seems that Cowell et al are already aiming for this after a couple of male winners in the past.

So the contenders..

Crystal is the worthy favourite. Trailer Park white trash, she seems just as comfortable busking in the street as she does giving a blowjob for ten bucks (even with those manky teeth..) However she has the best voice and is quality. That said at 9/4 for the outright she isnt really playable, and there could be some problems further down he line if sh has to sing something like disco. There is also the question of her abrasive exterior - cn she warm herself to the US public who tend to be quite conservative in their choices..

Siobhan is another oddball female contestant. Where Crystal is one of those ugly new age travellers, Siobhan is the cute traveller. Odd but pretty and she definately has the range. Again is she a bit offside for the voters?

Casey is the lowest odds male. What a fuckin joke The guy is limited to the extreme, and will be found out shortly. Of course his looks might carry him for a while but thats all he has..

Lee is the 'rockish' type guy. Voice is ok, has a cool (some would say (me included) uncomfortably cocky image that is annoying. Has a good gravely american voice, but just doesnt have the 'warmth' to win it..

'Big Mike' stole the show last week. He has that Ruben appeal (he who won AI2). Big black guy with bigg(ish) voice. Alas Ruben had a better voice and I reallt can't see him going all the way..

Andrew was the pre-live show favourite, but unfortunately he has the millstone of his paula abdull song which he did at the auditions hanging aound his neck. He's never really reached that level and it's been holding him back. That said I can see a mega-perofrmance coming up and he is another to watch.

Didi is my favourite female. She reminds me of Brooke from 2 seasons ago (who I backed as top female - she didnt win ) Still she is good - has the distinct voice that is part country/hippy/indie.. She is fit as well.. I think there is more to come from her..

Katie scraped through - too young.. She has the girl next door feel that might appeal to the viewers but she aint no winner..

Aaron is the 16 year old who young girlies will like. Not quite to the extent of someone like David Archuleta, but still someone who will be popular. Quite a good voice for a kid and another one that could progress further than expected.

Lacey is nice, but not strong enough..

Tim at 66/1... I really thought he might be battling it out for the Top Male title, and yet he is the lowest. Ok he had a suspect couple of weeks at the live qualifiers, but last week he was really strong, and he has a pretty current 'look'.. That kind of 'Glee' meets that American kid currently in the charts that all the 12-16 yearl old girls love (name escapes me..) Anyhoo I reckon there is potentially more to come from him.

Finally Paige.. Not really seen during the auditions, which is a message in itself. Has a decent voice, but not really shown it during the live shows, and is definately on the shortlist for elimination..Only nagging thought in the back of my mind is that they may want to keep one of only 2 black contestants in the show a little lo

So...Where are the bets?

Crystal is definately the one to beat.. But I can't take 9/4...kicking myself at the 9/1 I pondered before the live qualifiers...)

The boys are marked up wrong imo - how can Casey be viewed as the best male !? Sod it - I may look foolish shortly, but I can't not take the 29's for Tim..

Anyhow...Thought I'd have a speculative punt on the first elimination. It's rolling stones week, so it looks like it could well be a female going this week. Can't see beyond Paige or Lacey for the hatchet..

Paige or Lacey to be first elimination - 10 pt stake @ 2.3 (Betfred)

Tim to be Top Male - 1pt stake @ 29.00 (Betfred)

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Wel looking at the forums it appears that Andrew could well be the one that goes tonight..

However Lacey is also percieved as being disliked last night, so there is still hope..

Andrew needs the hispanic voters ringing in !!!

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To be honest, having watched it tonight, Andrew wasnt as bad as I expected (although he wasnt great..) The judges appeared to want him to stay, so maybe all isnt lost..

Lacey wasnt great, but my heart sank when I heard her parents were pastors, and she was a churchgoer..Shit..Middle America might take her to their heart on that fact alone..

Tim was pretty shit as well but he did try to be different so hopefully he will hang in there..

Paige wasnt bad to be fair, but she is generally unispiring..

For me young Aaron was the best performance of the night.. Didi was good as was Siobhan.. Crystal put in her usual good performance, but personality is still an issue..

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Well it appears the hispanic vote appeared to dominate over the bible basher vote as the bottom 3 were Paige, Lacey and Tim... Andrew escapes..

Uhmmmm..Tim... Looks like my 1 pt stake on him to win best male is as good as shot already (although I still thought that 29's was too high a price) I really thought he might have the teen vote, but either he hasnt got it, or the rasta version of a rollin stones song just wasnt right.. Probably a bit of both...

Still my elimination dutched bet was looking far better as both Paige and Lacey were in the bottom 3, and ultimately it ended up in a winning bet as Lacey got the boot..

So a good start.

Profit/Loss +12.2pts

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Well the theme this week is 'teen idols'.

Gives some potential clues on who could struggle this week. No elimination odds yet..

Crystal could have a problem this week (obviously not an elimination risk..) However I anticipate another drift in her odds, and I could well steam in on the outrights if she hits 4.00..

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Well Boyles and Betfred have priced a market up on the elimination market, and surprisingly there are some big prices for some of the singers supposedly less likely to go..

Tim is the obvious favourite - I suspect he could be the token 'bad' singer that creeps through a few weeks much to Cowell's dismay. I did take a big price on him for Top Male - I do think he has mileage to go further. Teen idols week could be good for him and I can see him avoiding the bottom 3..No value either.. Paige is another obvious bottom 3 candidate. She has potential to belt out a biggie though and 9/4 is again no price at this stage. There is definately some value in taking Katie at 9/2. She is plain, plain - can't find her niche. However teen idols again could suit.. Didi shouldnt go, and the lowish price is based on the fact her voice doesnt suit teen idol week - but she won't go..

Of the rest Casey (blur..), Siobhan, Crystal and Lee should get through..

So that leaves Big Mike, Aaron and Andrew - all 3 at double digit prices !! .. Big Mike will struggle this week, a big man with a small presence.. Aaron is a young kid who peaked last week and could well crash to earth this week despite the theme possibly suiting him.. Andrew escaped last week - but another bad performance and even his hispanic fan club might not save him..

All things being equal a male should go this week, so I am taking an ambitious dutch bet on one of the 3 amigos above to go at big prices..

To be Eliminated this week - Mike (17.00), Andrew (17.00) or Aaron (13.00) - 5 pt stake @ 5.14 (dutched with Betfred or Boyles)

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Well it looks like the bookies got it spot on, as judging by the forums Paige and Tim look like they were the worst. However the slightly positive news was that Andrew was also shit, so there is still hope. Unfortunately it sounds like Paige really butchered her song, and the fact that she appears to have the lowest following doesn't bode well.. Still I'll see what they were like tonight..

[Beanie]

Good work trick - I havent really watched since auditions and with so many left and not enough time to catch up it will probably be another few weeks before I can join/offer opinions(Im guff at AI anyway) but hope the Andrew punt comes in

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Cheers Beanie..

Well, I need to watch the show tonight, but if the performances are as expected then it will be very difficult to see Paige not going. She was never shown at all in any audition clips or Boot Camp so to say she has very little following is an understatement.. Really can't see her not going. It's a pity really as I suspect that Andrew will be up against her in the Final 2 as well..

Still believe that Tim has enough teeny bop following to keep him longer..

Apparently Crystal stole the show as well, so my hopes that her odds will drift enough for me to jump on are very slim indeed..

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As I thought Paige goes (I suspect by a landslide).. Tim in the bottom 2 again so the fanbase doesnt appear to be there although it doesnt help that the judges hate him..

Andrew wasnt even in the bottom 3, so the hispanic vote holds strong. The guy appears to have a following so I may have to avert from backing him for the time being..

Katie was the third person in the bottom group. She would be a real candidate to go next week, but the fact that 2 girls have already gone tells me that surely there won't be a third, particularly when the boys standard is so poor this year..

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Current Profit +7.2 pts

Well this week it's 'RnB' Week with Usher as the mentor.. The usual suspects should coast through here..

However now that 2 girls gone out in 2 consecutive weeks the law of averages on reality programmes (generally skewed) would tell me that it will be manipulated to be a male loser this week, and of course the fall guy is .....Tim.. Betfred go 4/6 that he will go this week (and this has been backed down...) Being the bottom 2 in the first 2 weeks and being unanimously disliked by all 3 judges tells me that he is going to be the targeted one this week.. However I really believe that he could scrape through again. He definately has an appeal with the teenies and with a semi decent comment from on of the judges (possibly Ellen) it could get him out again. I'm not surprised that he is the favourite but 4/6 is no price to take...

Andrew looks like he immume for a while.. His supporters will carry him through a little longer despite his one-dimensional style.. Also, of all the styles, RnB could be one of his strongest..

Aaron still has that bizarre Eoghan-type appeal about him and at 16 I'm sure he has the suppport to carry him through..

Big Mike is one I did consider...14/1 is a decent price, but what is bothering me is that he is singing RnB..Fcuk me he deserves to go out if he ends up in the bottom 3 with what I'm certain will be either a Luthor Vandross or an Alexander O Neil song!!!

Didi is my favourite (although not one I would back to win).. The judges (particularly Cowell) were too harsh on her.. RnB could be a problem, but she has a bit of a following so she should be safe..

The rest should be ok, although can I repeat that Casey is shockin but obviously popular..!

So..The one I have pinpointed is Katie.. In the bottom 3 last and one who really hasnt found her niche in music.. Sadly lacking in charisma, and doesnt even have the girl next door appeal.. RnB is definately not her thing, and despite the fact that a girl shouldnt go again this week, the voters may well have the last laugh.. She doesnt have the following as I see it.. Maybe odds on Tim won't go this week?

Quite happy to have a punt on the 3rd girl going at 5.5

Katie to be the 3rd Elimination - 2 pt stake @ 5.5 (Betfred)

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Just to finish off what was begun, Lee won AI with Crystal the runner-up..

Stopped watching it after I last posted on this thread, altho I have the episodes still stacked up on sky plus.. It would appear that Crystal's trailer park trash background caught with her in the end.. She was the best singer, but Lee (who was a good singer mind) must have have hit the momentum and it appears he never looked back..