The 82nd Annual Academy Awards 2010

[trickrick]

Some of the main award odds, although there will be plenty more nearer the time for more obscure awards..

All the Golden Globe winner's odds have inevitably shrunk..

Best Picture
Avatar 4/6
The Hurt Locker 13/10
Up In The Air 22/1
Inglourious Basterds 22/1
Precious 50/1
Up 100/1
The Blind Side 100/1
An Education 100/1
A Serious Man 125/1
District 9 125/1

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow 8/15
James Cameron 6/4
Quentin Tarantino 22/1
Jason Reitman 28/1
Lee Daniels 50/1

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges 1/5
George Clooney 9/2
Colin Firth 20/1
Jeremy Renner 25/1
Morgan Freeman 25/1

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock 4/6
Meryl Streep 13/8
Carey Mulligan 10/1
Gabby Sidibe 16/1
Helen Mirren 50/1

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz 1/20
Stanley Tucci 16/1
Woody Harrelson 16/1
Christopher Plummer 28/1
Matt Damon 33/1

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique 1/14
Anna Kendrick 14/1
Penelope Cruz 18/1
Vera Farmiga 22/1
Maggie Gyllenhaal 33/1


Odds from Bet365

[Pete89]

Anychance you know what performances there nominated for?

[stereoman]

A website I love to use when handicapping film awards is Awards Daily. Y'can read who's been nominated for what in the sidebar.

Odds for other categories and various propositions from Bet365:

Best Animated Feature Film
Up 1/14
Fantastic Mr Fox 8/1
Coraline 20/1
The Princess and the Frog 28/1
The Secret of Kells 28/1

Up just won the main prize at the Annies.. The only films not to do the Annies/Oscars double was Cars which lost to Happy Feet back in 2006/7 and Kung Fu Panda last year.

Annie Award for Best Animated Feature - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It's Up's to lose obviously.

Best Foreign Language Film
The White Ribbon 4/6
A Prophet 2/1
Ajami 9/1
The Secret in Their Eyes 12/1
The Milk of Sorrow 22/1

The odds are probably just about right. Michael Haneke should win it but upsets happen in this category surprisingly often.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Up In The Air 1/3
Precious 9/2
An Education 9/1
District 9 12/1
In The Loop 20/1

Will be surprised if Up in the Air doesn't get the 'Ooops. Sorry you're not winning Best Picture' consolation prize here.

Best Original Screenplay
Inglourious Basterds 1/2
The Hurt Locker 3/1
Up 8/1
A Serious Man 12/1
The Messenger 20/1

More competitive than it looks with four Best Picture nominees and a rank outsider up for the prize. We'll see what will give Quentin Tarantino his biggest obstacle over at the Writers Guild awards as he isn't nominated for that.

-------------

Most Oscars - Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker
Avatar 1/3
The Hurt Locker 9/4

Avatar. Number of technical categories it'll romp home in gives it the edge.

Number of Oscars - Inglourious Basterds
Under 2.5 1/2
Over 2.5 6/4

Supporting Actor is a lock. It might win Original Screenplay. What else will it win? Some murmurs it might even get Best Picture because of the preferential ballot system, and the sneaky Weinstein brothers may take advantage of that when campaigning.

Number of Oscars - Avatar
Under 5.5 4/7
Over 5.5 5/4

Visual Effects is a lock. Probably Cinematography, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. Director, Picture, Art Direction, Editing and Original Score are not assured.

Number of Oscars - Precious
Under 1.5 1/3
Over 1.5 9/4

Only Supporting Actress is a lock. Adapted Screenplay at a push. Actress if it's lucky. It's not going to get Director, Picture or Editing.

Number of Oscars - The Hurt Locker
Under 4.5 2/5
Over 4.5 7/4

Too many tangibles but 4 or less looks good. No bet at 5/2 on though.

Number of Oscars - Up In The Air
Under 1.5 4/11
Over 1.5 2/1

Adapted Screenplay is almost assuredly it's only win as it looks likely to lose everything else.

[stereoman]

The amount of money on Kathryn Bigelow to win Best Director and the odds she is currently at is quite telling. She's being bet on to win Best Director at next Sunday's BAFTA film awards as well.

Awards Daily's Oscar Countdown--Watching Oscar 24/7 Blog Archive Ace Eddie Awards TBA

The Hurt Locker has also won the ACE Eddie award which is a good sign that it may very well win Best Picture as well as Best Editing. So that's three awards.

What else can it win out of it's nine nominations?

* Best Actor for Jeremy Renner? No, that's going to Jeff Bridges.
* Best Original Screenplay? Possibly. Writers Guild win for The Hurt Locker might cement it. A BAFTA win helps a lot.
* Best Cinematography? Will likely win the BAFTA (Barry Ackroyd is a Brit!) but can it win the accompanying guild award? Might be better if he doesn't as
* Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing? Oooh. I dunno. One, both or neither? Who knows?
* Best Original Score? Don't think so. Up is the favourite here.

Too many intangibles (not tangibles as I said above) but that over/under 4.5 Oscars line is a devilish one to figure. At this rate it will either tie or get more Oscars than Avatar

The Hurt Locker to win Best Picture is a generally best-priced 11/8. That will shortly disappear.

[stereoman]

* Best Cinematography? Will likely win the BAFTA (Barry Ackroyd is a Brit!) but can it win the accompanying guild award? Might be better if he doesn't as...

'...winners of the ASC award don't tend to win the corresponding Oscar.' was the missing sentence.

Annoyed about missing the 3/1 earlier on that was available for The Hurt Locker to win Original Screenplay and also it's now the front-runner for Picture in two Sundays time as well after snabbing SIX BAFTA film awards last night. The only thing that can stop it is the preferential ballots system that the Oscars are using and sneaky buggers marking it down as their tenth favourite nominee.

Bet365 have moved about their various propositions. Some other bookies might be up for trying to be statistical about it.

Updated odds and stuff if I can be bothered.

Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1435: The Hurt Locker is now the new favourite to win Best Picture at next month's Oscars after its victory at the BAFTAs.

The Kathryn Bigelow-directed film is now the 8-11 (from 6-5) market leader with bookmakers Coral, deposing previous favourite Avatar, which has drifted out to Evens (from 8-13).

Bigelow also picked up the honour for Best Director, once again getting the better of her former partner, James Cameron (Avatar), and Coral have cut her to 1-3 (from 2-5) to follow up at the Oscars.

"Momentum is a lot, and Bigelow and her film are heading for the Oscars as the flavour of the month right now, it wouldn't be a surprise to see her scoop both top honours again next month," said Coral spokesman Gary Burton.

Jeff Bridges and Sandra Bullock are 1-6 and 8-13 respectively to win the best actor and actress with Coral, while Christoph Waltz at 1-40 and Mo'Nique (1-20) look certain to take the supporting accolades.

[stereoman]

Ladbrokes and Paddy Power are still up for it but William Hill have shut up shop. Everybody else more-or-less just include the top six categories.

A gamble has formed on the Argentinian entry The Secret In Their Eyes and few bookies want to price up Best Foreign Language Film as a result...12/1 into 9/4 I can see why. Smells of a fix.

Odds from Ladbrokes:

Best Picture - Director Doubles

The Hurt Locker - Bigelow 11/10
Avatar - Bigelow 9/4
Avatar - Cameron 4/1
The Hurt Locker - Cameron 10/1
Any other combination 10/1

Right now it looks like The Hurt Locker and Kathryn Bigelow but 11/10 when they're 5/6 and 1/4 is appalling. 'Avatar' can still upset if they have to reward it for making so much money but I can't see it.

Total Oscars - Avatar

More than 4 awards 5/6
Exactly 4 awards 3/1
Less than 4 awards 2/1

Art Direction, Sound Editing and Visual Effects, yes but the other six categories less so. It might win one or two others so this is tentative. FOUR or less is my call so no bet unless you want to try and arb 3/1 and 2/1 and pray that it doesn't get more than four Oscars.

Total Oscars - The Hurt Locker

More than 4 awards 5/4
Exactly 4 awards 11/4
Less than 4 awards 7/5

Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography and Sound Mixing look like good gets (what the heck does 'good gets' mean?) so I think it'll get SIX Oscars. I don't think it'll get Actor, Score or Sound Editing but why back the 5/4 to get more than four Oscars when you can...

Most Awards

Avatar 5/6
The Hurt Locker 13/8
Tie 4/1

...back the 13/8 for it to get more Oscars than Avatar? Value is with The Hurt Locker and it's where my money's gone on. They cross swords in seven categories. 6/4 on offer from Paddy Power though with bets void if both Avatar (1/2) and The Hurt Locker tie. I'm not scared of the tiw or 'Avatar' winning although I probably should be.

Odds from Paddy Power:



Wouldn't know what Sandra Bullock will be wearing (don't think it'll be Alexander McQueen though) but she is going to win as she and Jeff Bridges 'Ryan Giggs' their way to career Oscars.

Their specials that they do every year aren't worth mentioning. I don't think Jeff Bridges will cry (3/1 that the Best Actor winner will cry). Sandra might be tempted to though (no odds for that).

[stereoman]

Ugh. The Hurt Locker to get more Oscars than Avatar has gone out to 7/4 over at Paddy Power (Avatar into 2/5). Maybe Avatar will get the win and prove the precursor awards wrong.

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

Did you watch that SKY oscars preview Stereo ? I accidentaly caught it last Saturday when waiting for a film to start - they seemed very confident on some events being walkovers - cant recall them now, i`ll just check the markets and get back to you

They did say The Hurt Locker should get more than Avatar but they felt that Avatar would actually shade it. Arent the directors ex husband and wife or sumat ?

The Hurt Lockers on sky box office tommorrow night, im gona give it a blast , looks like a belter! Avatar not my thing I doubt

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

Their picks not mine, most they were very very confident on

Director Kathryn Bigelow @ 1.26
Best Pic Avatar @ 2.34 said it should be Hurt Locker but will be Avatar
Foreign Language The White Ribbon @ 2.2
Actor Jeff Bridges @ 1.20
Actress - said it was about time Meryl Streep won one as shes always up and hasnt won one for ages and its her turn @ 3.90
Screenplay - inglorious Basterds @ 1.66
Supporting actor - Christopher Waltz @ 1.07
Supporting actress - MoNique @ 1.13
Visual - avatar 1.03

[stereoman]

Wouldn't disagree with most of 'em barring Picture and Original Screenplay which I still say will go to The Hurt Locker.

Sky Bet have come up with some reasonable specials.



Don't have Sky Movies but will somehow find a way of watching 'em live as it happens. The 5/4 on Jack Nicholson seems like a good 'un although 'close-up' might be a bit of a problem. I'd put money on it when it's a female nominee to win (Kathryn Bigelow or Sandra Bullock) and they pan to Jack's smiling face.

I'd put money on Mo'Nique to thank God during her acceptance speech (but not crying so the 7/4 doesn't appeal) so the 6/5 appeals for any of the 'Big 6' winners to do so.

Am I putting any more money on the Oscars though? No.

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

That 1/3 for the hosts mentioning the marriage is surely a gimme!

Wont be watching it as im working at 5am! But have a good un SM ,hope you make a good profit coz you've clearly put the hours in!

I actually might watch the hurt locker tonight on sky movies box office!

[stereoman]

Aye, thanks. Will be tough (especially my 'The Hurt Locker will win more Oscars than Avatar' bet which was more than a little influenced by what happened at the BAFTAs) if odds movements are anything to go by as Avatar gets nibbled at but it's still The Hurt Locker that's very narrowly favoured to win Picture.

Bestbetting > TV / Film & Music > Oscars > Academy Awards > 2009-2010 > Best Picture

Avatar to win both Director and Picture in a win double is available at 5/1 at Paddy Power but I'm sticking to my guns with The Hurt Locker to win Picture and Director instead.

Would love to have bet on those silly props over at Sky Bet but my plate is fairly full as it is.

[CPFC]

If Christopher Waltz doesn't get Best Supporting Actor for his performance in Inglorius Bastards then it'll be the biggest shock ever. He was absolutely sublime in that role, and made the film for me.

[stereoman]

Am watching the show right now through this link: VIP TV on Justin.tv

[stereoman]

Sandra Bullock cried, I don't know who designed her dress. The Hurt Locker survived a late smear campaign. Jeff Bridges rambled but didn't cry. Mo'Nique mentioned God but didn't really thank God as she said 'God bless us all' at the end of her speech.

I don't think I saw Jack Nicholson in the audience at all!

The Hurt Locker wins SIX Oscars! I should had more faith! It won Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

Avatar wins three: Art Direction, Cinematography and Visual Effects.

Awards Daily's Oscar Countdown--Watching Oscar 24/7 Blog Archive 6 Oscars for The Hurt Locker, 3 for Avatar, 2 for Precious