BNP To Win A Seat Next Election?

[kompressaur]

Im not up on politics nor the mood of the people but im slightly suprised that you can get 4/1 that they will. what you reckon?

[ONEDUNME]

Well I'd have to explain what u mean komp. Are u surprised because u think 4/1 is a big price or are u surprised because you didn't think odds would be so low

Like u I wouldn't have an inkling if that was good or not

[Pete89]

I'd say thats far too low IMO. The Greens and UKIP don't even have a seat. I'd lay all day at 4/1 (hell I'd lay all day at 20's!)

[thesaint]

In my opinion, UKIP aren't the party they were 5 years ago. They're riddled with infighting and their membership numbers are dwindling away. People from all sides of the political spectrum are saying that the BNP are the fastest growing party in the UK. 4/1 looks a very, very good price to me. The gains they made in the last council elections were very large indeed, and at the last euro elections they managed to pick up their first two seats.

The London Assembly elections showed that in 2004, just over 8% of the vote was for UKIP, and around 4.5% for the BNP. Last year, UKIP voters were at just 2%, and the BNP was at around 6%.

After doing a bit of digging around, the BNP say - "BNP membership during most of 2008 stood at 9,000 plus. At this very moment at the end of 2009, BNP membership now stands at 13,000 plus 3,000 on hold due to the membership ban."

UKIP's membership stood at around 26,000 in 2004, but now only stands at just under 15,000. Personally, I believe that the more right wing members of UKIP have been moving over to the BNP due to its heavy gains in recent elections etc.

As I said before, 4/1 looks a good price. P.S. Don't be alarmed by my knowledge of the right wing, I'm just into my politics is all. I'm not some sort of neo-nazi facist or something....

[Beanie]

But surely a general improvement in support isnt what they need thesaint, to win a seat they need a huge surge in support in one particular constituency given the FPP system.

They earnt 4% of the vote last time in the general election in the areas they stood in, and 5% in the recent euro elections. Even if they could improve that significantly, then 8-9% is still far too small to win them any seats, even if there was a big concentration in a particular area. Nick Griffin himself still only won 8% of the vote.

Barring some huge racial incident somewhere I couldnt go near anything like 4/1.