X Factor 2009

[Beanie]

That time of year again, and the word is that the spoiler below is quite possibly the final 12(not my comments btw):

Boys:
Lloyd
Ricki
Joe

Girls:
Rachel Adedji (Still To Be Shown)
Stacey Soloman
Lucie

Groups:
Kandy Rain (Still To Be Shown)
John And Edward ( I Know )
F.R.A.N.K (3 Piece Girl Group Made Up Of Soloists At BC)

Overs:
Jamie Afro
Danyl Johnson
Olly

Simon Has The Overs, Cheryl Has The Boys, Dannii Has The Girls And Louis The Groups (Hence Why John And Edward Are Through Lol)

I hope its not as by and large they were all awful.

Boys wise Lloyd and Joe's voices sounds pretty weak to me - and the X Factor is so big now that the tween vote cant get their favs over the line(see Eoghan last year.) Ricki was on last year and doesnt have any wow factor about him - and as for Scotland getting behind him, im not sure, he doesnt seem the type that the country supports.

Stacey and Lucie have good voices but as far as a package goes Stacey more fits the mould of a girl band singer(which female voters never go for) although I suppose they could stick her in a proper dress and see what happens. Lucie has a bit more of the 'Diana Vickers' about her but her technical singing was poor in the audition despite her good voice.

John and Edward...oh jesus. Just don't back them for elimination too early(you know what these shows are like!)

The Overs is the most interesting category so far - Danyl was good but his confidence was verging on cockiness(possibly the wrong side?) Olly had an awkwardness about his performance that could work well. Jamie had a great audition, but the X Factor has never really proved a good place for rock voices. All 3 not without chances.


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Of course the spoiler might be wrong, in which case you aint seen me, roight? If it is, some good prices out there. Although pretty dodgy choices again by the judges imo.

[Beanie]

Still nothing to suggest that the spoiler is wrong...although the bookies have caught up a little now.

My only punt so far has been on Olly(nicked the last of the 9/1 at Laddies) - its pretty clear Simon wants a male winner given that Leona and Alexandra will be crowding the solo female market over the next few years.

Olly fits the bill well, and this backstage vocal shows the versatility of his voice which is so key to such a long format like the X Factor:



The only problem is that he is in a fairly crowded category(if the spoiler is true then its him, Jamie and Danyl, all with great chances) but for me he should turn out to be the pick of the 3.

Prices have been dropping all week but still some 7/1 available which still looks a tad generous...just(provided the spoiler is correct.)

[ONEDUNME]

I don't watch this shit and I don't profess to know anything about it but I saw five minutes of it tonight and from a gambling point of view I'd suggest laying the bald autistic cunt for all the money you can get. Typical selective editing to apeal to the brain-dead level of the retards who watch this shit. Put five crap acts on and then follow it with a sob story of some fucking emotionally challenged muppet who can't sing.

For fuck's sake, it takes the emporer's new clothes to a new level.

An average singer, fair enough, but a normal sane person wouldn't actually stand next to him and listen to him for more than three minutes at a time, let alone actually buy anything he released.

If you do actually watch this garbage for entertainment, I could probably recommend a good psychiatrist but I fear I may be too late.

Get a fuckin life for God's sake.

[Beanie]

I've not seen any of the audition shows for those reasons ODM(honest guv!) - scripted horseshit. Much better to catch up on the contenders on youtube and save yourself the pain of sitting through 45 minutes of set up delinquents.

The guy you talk about was Scott James - he was actually the bookies fav about a week ago, until the whispers appeared that he isnt even in the final 12! If the bookies choose not to return stakes then they'll have made a more than tidy sum on him!

[trickrick]

Well we are at the last stage before the final 12 show, and already in my eyes I see the potential winner – Danyl. Sheer madness could be one thought that springs to mind when judging my decision to already side with a winner(the favourite as well !) before the live shows..  However I have been impressed with Danyl since he appeared on the first audition show.  He blew the judges away and for Cowell to say that it was the best first audition he had ever seen implies to me he has already got his eye on this guy going all the way – was it a coincidence he got the over 25’s? I haven’t seen anyone who has come close to competing with him at the moment.

Danyl seems to tick all the right boxes, a good voice obviously but his profile seems to be fit the bill – he has an occupation that is appealing..  Teachers along with nurses and fireman seem to be the occupations that most joe public admire.  He is good looking in a ‘strange’ way, as he has the exotic look of afro-carribean combined with the far east (almost tiger woods style breeding), although I could be completely wrong there ..

His voice is very, very good and he seems to show he has a bit of versatility when he threw in a beatbox style intro to a song during boot camp.  I really think he is a cert to get to the final 3 in what I believe is not as strong line up in the under 25 boys and girls. My only slight reservation, is that I still have question marks about his attitude.  A couple of times in the highlights I got the impression that he is a good singer, but he knows he is, and I felt there could be hints of arrogance almost.  I hope not, as I am quite bullish about his chances Still 5.00 arent great odds for someomeone to win before the live shows start but he was down to 3.00 earlier, so you never know (although I regret not taking the 7.00 Tote had for a while on Tuesday! ).. 

I could have also played a waiting game as his odds could drift after the live show, but then again they may not. I know from bitter experience in the past that antepost odds before the live shows can be very misleading, so come December I could be looking back at this post and regretting how stupid I sounded, or I could be smugly smiling…

Danyl to win X-Factor – 10 pt stake @ 5.00 (Betfred)

[Beanie]

Have to say I didnt like is attitude either trick, nor did most of the casual viewers in my workplace. He could disappear up his own ar$e fairly early on, but if not, the voice and appeal is there.

Olly was quite weak during bootcamp, but the voice is there, just needs to find it again. The winner for me is still surely a male(I've no doubt a woman will be contending on finals night, but the Cowell rampathon for a male winner will start in earnest during the live shows.) The young lads look limited - so between the 3 Over 25s...the first live show next week will tell us all we need to know.

[trickrick]

Well Beanie, it looks like your straw poll of opinions on Danyl could be quite accurate. I think I have underestimated the dislike some people have of him quite spectacularly.. The forums are full of Danyl negativity to the point that he is quite possibly the most disliked after the ghastly Irish twins..

Not good....

[stereoman]

Bet365's odds for various things:





To win their groups:

Boys: Joe McElderry 10/11, Lloyd Daniels 15/8, Rikki Loney 7/2
Girls: Lucie Jones 10/11, Stacey Solomon 6/4, Rachel Adedeji 5/1
Groups: Miss Frank 8/15, John and Edward Grimes 10/3, Kandy Rain 4/1
Over 25s: Danyl Johnson 11/8, Jamie Archer 13/8, Olly Murs 5/2

Not even Wayne Rooney's endorsement of Danyl Johnson might help him!

[stereoman]

Bettingzone are mainly tipping Stacey Solomon to win with Joe McElderry and Rikki Loney as spoilers in ther preview.

SEEK SUCCESS WITH SUPER STACEY

[BetfairGuy]

I'd be very surprised if Stacey won. She's very likable but I don't think that her voice is particularly strong and we've yet to hear her sing anything uptempo.

Of the girls I think that Rachel at 18.5 on Betfair is the most versatile and will go far. The show has been won twice out of the last three years, by young black female soul/RnB singers and she's definitely good value.

[trickrick]

Well after my potentially embarrassing championing of Danyl I probably should be careful what I bet on going forward.... That said I am standing by him (even if his price has drfited somewhat..

However first elimination week, and I suspect that it could be goodbye for Kandy Rain. Of course its difficult to guage without watching them perform, but there are a number of factors that push them to the front.

To be honest they arent very good. an average girl band. More importantly they are all ex strippers, and I am pretty certain that there is zero chance that they will appeal to anyone (bar a few letchrous bokes who won't be voting).. There is no appeal to anyone else as I see it. I'm also not sure whether Cowell will be too keen on championing a group of strippers on his show which is his baby.. A member of the Groups Catergory generally go out the first week anyhow.. Can't see them out of the bottom 2..

Rikki is probably the least talented singer. Looks to me like a desperate wannabe, and for some bizarre reason has appealed to Cheryl (when it should have been that balck guy through - not him). She seems to think he is 'quirky'. Not sure quirky will be good enough. His voice was awful at the last audition - very weak and I can see hi getting a panning from Cowell. Not sure he'll have the Scottish vote either (he is Scottish isnt he ? ) At 10's he is worth a few quid to go.

It's obvious that John and Edward are the novelty act that are going to annoy Cowell. I somehow suspect that when Louis was allocated the bands it was solely becasue they knew he would pick them (having been the only judge to champion them through the auditions. Cowell knows they will be good telly as they bundle through the rounds.. That said he will absolutely pan them knowing that they are crap, and the viewers will vote to save them, as they have done so many times in the past with such acts..

My prediction - Kandy Rain v Rickki in the bottom 2

Kandy Rain to be first elimination - 8 pt Stake @ 2.90 (Betfair)
Rickki to be first elimination - 2 pt stake @ 10.00 (888Sport)

[stereoman]

Agree about Kandy Rain (the tabloids have already got their knives out for Vicky Lloyd aka Coco). They're this year's Bad lashes and are sacrificial lambs to Simon's 'chosen one' whoever the hell that is.

* Why can John & Edward survive this week? Because the GBP loves a good laugh and someone to hate (they're this year's MacDonald Brothers). You can see Dannii and Cheryl keeping them in can't you and Louis will vote to save them over Kandy Rain!

* Why won't John & Edward survive this week? 'Everybody' hates them! Some lumpy bets are worrying me...someone know what the producers are up to?

Yesterday's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1300: William Hill have cut the price of John and Edward being the first X Factor act to be eliminated from 15/8 to 7/4 favourites following a number of bets of up to £800.

"We think Louis has lost it and we would be astounded if John and Edward don't fall at the first hurdle," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by stereoman

"We think Louis has lost it and we would be astounded if John and Edward don't fall at the first hurdle," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

Utter bollocks.. Ramping them for a reason cos they're scared of 'em I reckon..

Let me amend the quote..

"I think that William Hills have lost it and I would be astounded if John and Edwards fall at the first hurdle," said Punters Pal Trickrick

[trickrick]

Hmm...

Hills go 6/4 John and Edwards.. You can get 9/4 elsewhere.. Obviously Hills clients hate those loveable twins as they are backing them to high heaven by the look of it!

Strange...(and slightly confusing )

[trickrick]

Apparently the songs are..

Rachel - Let Me Entertain You
Stacey - The Scientist
Lucie - Footprints In The Sand
John and Edward - Rock DJ
Miss Frank - Who's Loving You
Kandy Rain - Addicted To Love
Lloyd - Cry Me A River
Rikki - Back To Black
No idea about Joe
Olly - She's The One
Danyl - And I'm Telling You (I'm Not Going)
Jamie - Get It On

Hmmm..Rock DJ for J & E !?! Will be entertaining I'm sure..

Actaully Addicted to love for Kandy Rain looks like a potential disaster... Also Rickki's could be dodgy

Not sure about Rachel's either !