X Factor 2009

[stereoman]

Close to £100,000 being traded on who'll be out first over at Betfair. Kandy Rain around 2.3, the twins at around 3, Rikki's into 7 and Rachel 10.

[stereoman]

Kandy Rain out ahead of Rachel due to viewer vote (Cheryl and Dannii voted to save Rachel, Louis and Simon voted to sav Kandy Rain)

The X Factor - News - Kandy Rain voted off 'The X Factor' - Digital Spy

[Frodo]

Is it just me or did anyone else notice that Robbie Williams had half of Columbia up his nose tonight! Blink man!!
I think Joe's the bet based on what little I've seen so far. Lloyd, Ricki and the Vanilla Ice Juniors are shit, Olly is bland and cries too much, people will get bored of him. Rachel in the bottom two this week doesn't bode well, Stacey's voice (not singing) will eventually annoy people enough not to vote for her. Danyl is the best but in 12 weeks I think he's likely to do one or two daft things which'll count against him. Miss Frank and Jamie Afro are your wildcards and makes them unlikely but dangerous.
I think Joe will sneak under the radar for a few weeks then will suddenly find himself in the top 6 and by then folk won't be as bored of him as they are with the rest who'll hog the headliners. My mum also thinks he'll do well with the teenage girl vote. I'd want a fair bit more than 5/1 though.
Of course I'm speaking on my extensive of experience of mercifully only ever watching 4/5 of these programs in the past but when I saw the show with the last 6 or so last year I thought it was pretty obvious that Alexandra was the best even though I later found out she was nowhere near the favourite.

[Beanie]

No real surprises tonight then(bar Simon's choice) - can't imagine J+E were anywhere near the bottom two so a nice start to this years show - nice one on KR trickrick, never in doubt really - nice to see no-one spoiling the market by getting inside info either.

[stereoman]

...yet.

The good ol' GBP voting to save the hate figures. Next week will probably be Rikki or Rachel out with the twins saved yet again.

Annoyed I didn't get on at the 9/1 over at Sky Bet for Kandy Rain and Lynda Bellingham to be both out this weekend. They might have been the favourites but they still have to be voted out. Close run thing in the end in both eliminations.

[stereoman]

Tuesday's Bettingzone Market News:

1250: Stan James have opened a market on when the X Factor twins James and Edward will be eliminated from the show having survived the public vote in week one.

Head of PR Charlie McCann said: "There appears a mischievous streak to the British public and those who voted for the twins at the weekend will obviously want to see the duo go a long way, but how many weeks can the twins survive?

"We bet 2/1 they are given their marching orders on Sunday evening, 11/4 they last another week and 80/1 they somehow win the 2009 X Factor."

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When will John & Edward be eliminated from X-Factor?

Week 2 2/1
Week 3 11/4
Week 4 4/1
Week 5 Or Later 2/1

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Monday's Bettingzone Market News:

1315: Despite Dannii Minogue's comments on Saturday night, Danyl Johnson has reclaimed his favourite's tag and is 3/1 with Paddy Power to win this year's X Factor.

The 27 year-old teacher from Reading was victim of an ill-conceived jibe by the Aussie judge after his performance, with some punters even asking to bet on Minogue being booted off as a judge before the end of the current series.

Last week's favourite Lucie Jones has drifted out to 4/1 from 11/4.

Darren Haines, spokesman for Paddy Power, said: "Danyl was the original favourite after his memorable first audition and punters seem to have jumped back onto him after his rough treatment on Saturday."

Meanwhile William Hill say they are big fans of John and Edward after they were saved a six-figure payout when the twins were kept in the competition but they are the 2/1 favourites to get the boot this coming weekend.

"We hope that the public are going to torment Simon Cowell by voting for John and Edward, they could be this years McDonald brothers," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

[stereoman]

Yesterday's Bettingzone Market News:

1630: William Hill have for the first time opened a book on which acts will be in the bottom two of X Factor on Sunday night.

Rikki is the evens favourite to be in the final two and the odds suggest that he will be joined by John and Edward who are offered at 5/4.

"We have had a number of calls from punters who dont want any judge bias to affect their bet so for the first time we are betting on who the public think should go. I for one will be backing John and Edward, surely the public will show their taste?" said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

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The odds for the others to be in the bottom two:

Rachel Adedeji 11/8
Miss FRANK 3/1
Lloyd Daniels 4/1
Olly Murs 9/2
Jamie Archer 5/1
Joseph McElderry 7/1
Danyl Johnson 12/1
Stacey Soloman 12/1
Lucie Jones 14/1

[Beanie]

Just about caught up with tonights show now - this season could turn out to be fairly unpredictable given that a lot of the demographics are fairly congested...Joe and Lloyd perhaps squabbling over the same(admittedly large) number of votes - Olly, Jamie and Danyl doing similar, and so it all depends on who goes out and when in order to determine the all important vote transference...

My best early guess is that it will boil down to Olly v Joe - just a hunch, but 12 weeks is a long long process and I've seen enough in all the others to think that the public will turn against them at some point. Those two are understated enough to bring themselves slowly to the boil and pace their run nicely.

[Beanie]

Oh and two bets for tomorrow night...

2pts Rachel to go @ 5.50 with Boylesports
2pts Miss Frank to go @ 4.00 with Betfred

If the voting leaks are to be believed(apparently there was one last week, and it was correct!) then these two are lagging a little behind Ricki and so in a little bother...

[stereoman]

The margin for error to bet on this week's elimination at Sporting Index seems to be quite a bit if you get it wrong!

[Beanie]

By all accounts the leak(which had Miss Frank quite a distant last) was wrong last week, thems the breaks.

Not sure about this week but surely a good one in store from Olly - big band week should play right into his hands.

[Gavster]

What do you guys think about Lloyd going this week? Presently at 7-1, think Big Band week will be awful for his flat voice and introverted personality.

Also, the Sun are reporting that Jamie Archer has had to change his song to U2's Angels of Harlem with 24hrs notice due to a row with Simon. (possible bottom 2 if it all goes pair-shaped)!


Biggest winners this week are Miss Frank and Olly IMO.


Can I also ask the question: Who exactly does Joe appeal too? Who will buy his record and what part of the market will he fill? He's favorite and I don't know why!! Favourite with grandmas, that's all!

[stereoman]

Seems to be likeable enough currently without being too annoying like a certain Leon Jackson (what's he been up to lately!? ).

However it's early doors and you have a few others who are also heading the market such as Stacey Solomon (unlikely though it is but all anybody seems to say negatively about her is that she's a bit dim) and Wayne Rooney's favourite Danyl Johnson (is he gay? Isn't he? Who cares?).

I can't imagine ANYONE of the remaining acts having a career after six months if they win so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 'surprise' winner this series.

Will Lloyd be up for elimination? Lord knows. He's singing 'Fly Me to the Moon'. Only a bit of Derren Brown aftereventing can explain why which two were in the bottom two.

[Gavster]

I think Miss Frank will be the most successful act after this series. I've been saying for weeks they will adequately fill the gap left SWV and TLC. They are the most talented there besides Danyl.

Stacey will bite the dust when people get bored of her dumbness. At the moment they mistake it for innocence and sweetness. It'll be the disco weeks that get rid of Stacey.

Rachel has got to do a big Grace Jones effort with attitude to stay in this week. If she does, it'll be someone like Lloyd who can't sing for toffee that leaves.

[trickrick]

Well big band week usually sorts the boys from the men (and er..girls from the women...)

Lets go through the ones who should coast it this week. Completely agree with the sentiments above - big band week was made for Olly and with a Rat Pack style performance he can steal the show (and potentially outright favouritism). Other ones who should coast through are; Lucie, Stacey, Joe and Danyl.. By the way Gavin - I have no idea what the appeal is with Joe and I really can't see him winning - former fat kid with a strangely wide mouth? A face you want to punch really..

The twins will do the normal ridiculous performance (are there any other twins in the world that are sooo off kilter with their dancing moves?) They will no doubt get people remembering them and hence guaranteed a couple more weeks of 'cue camera zoom on Simon's 'amazed' face after they survive again...'

I see Lloyd getting through.. As well as the fact that it would be unlikely for Cheryl to lose a second contestant in consecutive weeks (although not impossible), I actually think his strangely low voice for a 16 year old will actually suit the big band style..

So we are left with Miss Frank, Rachel and Jamie..

It's difficult to guage just how low her support is. She definately has a good voice, and it could just be that this week could be when she gets the rave reviews after a powerful performance she is capable of... She is also due a late appearance on the schedule for once after a couple of early starts which will help. If she is in the bottom 2 for the third week, I think Cowell will realise she is expendable and she will be toast. However at even money she isnt tempting me..

2 acts who are, are Miss Frank and Jamie..

I disagree with the comments about Miss Frank having a future. THey are 3 seperate solo singers that were used as a little pawns in the X Factor storyline.. There is no chemistry between them, and to be honest that fat rapping chick in the middle has a ghastly attitude and just for that they deserve to go just for that.. Cannot see them doing gelling tonight - especially if she is going to do some rapping as was eluded to last week.. Simon knows they arent doing it, and sympathetic treatment of Louis apart they could well go..

Before I read the comments regarding the Sun and a bust up with Cowell I thought the 40/1 for him to go was good value - now I see it being irresistable !! Jamie doesnt really have the image to suit the usually primetime ITV viewer. A rock pub singer with a towel in his back pocket doesnt appeal to many.. Big band and a rocker? Hmm.. Difficult to see how it will work, and with an early start he should be forgetable. He shouldnt be going but at 40/1 I am having some!

Miss Frank v Jamie ?

Miss Frank to be eliminated - 5 pt stake @ 5.00 (Boylesports)
Jamie Afro to be eliminated - 1 pt stake @ 41.00 (Paddypower)