Strictly Come Dancing 2009

[trickrick]

Joe Calzaghe 5/1
Jade Johnson 6/1
Ricky Whittle 7/1
Rav Wilding 8/1
Zoe Lucker 8/1
Phil Tufnell 9/1
Martina Hingis 10/1
Laila Rouass 12/1
Ali Bastian 12/1
Craig Kelly 14/1
Natalie Cassidy 14/1
Ricky Groves 20/1
Chris Hollins 20/1$
Lynda Bellingham 28/1
Jo Wood 33/1
Richard Dunwoody 33/1

Odds from 888bet

Gotta admit that I know barely any from this crowd as apparently half the fcukers come from Soaps ..

Still..Interesting to see Calzaghe as the favourite. AHve to admit that he strikes me who is someone who either possesses two left feet, or is a natural super smooth italian womaniser on the dancefloor, and judging by the odds he is the latter.. That said 3/1 by Bet365 is a tad short and 5/1 is rather dodgy considering they havent set foot on the screen..

I really don't know may of the entrants and I havent researched any of them..

However I have always had a soft spot for Martina Hingis...*sigh*

She has a nice look that will appeal to the masses (Girl next door). Being a sporty type she will go for this 100% and I'm sure she will have natural ability. Ok, being Swiss isnt going to help and possibly the cocaine ban is a drawback but I really hope in what is a mass of soap star wannabes she will rise above..


Martina Hingis to win Strictly - 3 pt stake @ 10/1 (888Sport)

Go Martina !! Gotta go with blind faith as an initial bet but heck 10/1 is good enough

[stereoman]

Not sure if we have any ringers in this lot like Tom Chambers last year.

I think Joe Calzaghe, Ricky Whittle and Rav Wilding will be battling it out for the housewives' vote and I suppose are rightfully among the favourites. Phil Tufnell is a popular fella but I suspect he can't dance to save his life.

No surprise that the three oldest contestants (Lynda Bellingham, Richard Dunwoody and Jo Wood) are the three biggest outsiders.

I've no idea about Martina Hingis and Jade Johnson but one would suspect they wouldn't go on this show if they couldn't dance. Ali Bastian, Natalie Cassidy, Ricky Groves and Craig Kelly should count themselevs luck that they'll be getting £50,000 whatever happens.

I think Chris Hollins could be the absolute dark horse amongst this lot but there's no market (what is there? 'Versus/last longer than such-and-such...' and 'Top Man' markets?) I would back him in that would make it worthwhile or even +EV.

Zoe Lucker and Laila Rouass can sneak in the top five and perhaps even be a finalist but the women tend to have to be 'exceptional' as mostly blokes have won this.

S1: Natasha Kaplinsky beats Christopher Parker
S2: Jill Halfpenny beats Denise Lewis
S3: Darren Gough beats Colin Jackson
S4: Mark Ramprakash beats Matt Dawson
S5: Alesha Dixon beats Matt Di Angelo
S6: Tom Chambers beats Rachel Stevens

Strictly Come Dancing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[traeth]

I've only seen a few clips of "Stricccctly"

here in Wales the media [expecting it from tv but also from the press ] have gone mad about Calzaghe
there is more hype about this shite than when he was boxing
they had his uncle on tv saying that Joe's grandfather was a great dancer so Joe's got a great chance , wish I could select winners with that logic

[stereoman]

A couple of markets over at William Hill:

'Top Man' ~

Joe Calzaghe 2/1
Ricky Whittle 10/3
Phil Tufnell 9/2
Rav Wilding 9/2
Craig Kelly 10/1
Chris Hollins 10/1
Richard Dunwoody 16/1
Ricky Groves 20/1

'Top Woman' ~

Jade Johnson 5/2
Martina Hingis 9/2
Laila Rouass 9/2
Zoe Lucker 11/2
Ali Bastian 11/2
Natalie Cassidy 7/1
Jo Wood 12/1
Lynda Bellingham 16/1

Feel more confident trying to predict the US version 'Dancing with the Stars' than I do with this lot.

[stereoman]

Today's Bettingzone Market um, News?

1300: William Hill have closed their book on Joe Calzaghe and dance partner Kristina Rihanoff confirming that they are an item after the 4/1 they were offering was backed into 1/2.

"It looks like the worst kept secret in showbiz and we expect an announcement in the next few days," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

Joe is also the favourite to win Strictly at 7/2 with over 70% of early money on the former boxer with Ricky Whittle second favourite at 11/2.

"It looks like Joe will be able to practice 24hr a day so he is an obvious favourite," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

[stereoman]

Today's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1045: The new series of Strictly Come Dancing hit our screens last night and there's been a big shake up in the market.

Bookies' favourite, boxer Joe Calzaghe, was left trailing at the bottom in last night's show with a score of 16 for his tango and he and partner Kristina Rihanoff have drifted right out to a general 16/1.

The new market leader - at prices ranging from 9/4 up to Stan James' 3/1 - is Hollyoaks star Ricky Whittle who won't be in action until next week.

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Stan James' 'To win outright' market ~

Ali Bastian 13/5
Ricky Whittle 3/1
Martina Hingis 9/1
Laila Rouass 10/1
Jade Johnson 11/1
Craig Kelly 12/1
Phil Tufnell 14/1
Zoe Lucker 16/1
Joe Calzaghe 16/1
Ricky Groves 18/1
Natalie Cassidy 20/1
Rav Wilding 20/1
Richard Dunwoody 25/1
Jo Wood 33/1
Chris Hollins 33/1
Lynda Bellingham 50/1

Stan James' '1st Elimination' market (scores from Friday's show in brackets) ~

Lynda Bellingham 5/2 (21)
Chris Hollins 6/1 (26)
Martina Hingis 8/1 (22)
Ricky Groves 5/1 (21)
Ali Bastian 50/1 (30)
Jade Johnson 20/1 (25)
Rav Wilding 11/4 (19)
Joe Calzaghe 7/2 (16)

Strictly Come Dancing (series 7) - Wikipedia, an encyclopedia

[trickrick]

Bollox ! Forgot it started last night

[stereoman]

Wow. Martina Hingis gets the boot ahead of Rav Wilding.

There were four worse dancers going by scores but she's gone!

Strictly Come Dancing - News - Martina Hingis voted off 'Strictly' - Digital Spy

Revised odds for outright, top man, top woman and second elimination over at Stan James:

To win outright ~

Ricky Whittle 5/2
Ali Bastian 11/4
Jade Johnson 10/1
Laila Rouass 10/1
Chris Hollins 11/1
Craig Kelly 12/1
Phil Tufnell 14/1
Zoe Lucker 16/1
Ricky Groves 18/1
Natalie Cassidy 20/1
Rav Wilding 20/1
Richard Dunwoody 25/1
Joe Calzaghe 28/1
Jo Wood 33/1
Lynda Bellingham 50/1

Top Male ~

Joe Calzaghe 12/1
Ricky Whittle 10/11
Rav Wilding 10/1
Phil Tufnell 9/1
Chris Hollins 4/1
Craig Kelly 9/1
Richard Dunwoody 20/1
Ricky Groves 9/1

Top Female ~

Jade Johnson 11/5
Laila Rouass 9/2
Zoe Lucker 10/1
Ali Bastian 11/10
Natalie Cassidy 14/1
Jo Wood 28/1
Lynda Bellingham 28/1

Second Elimination ~

Richard Dunwoody 7/4
Jo Wood 5/2
Natalie Cassidy 6/1
Zoe Lucker 7/1
Craig Kelly 8/1
Phil Tufnell 10/1
Laila Rouass 16/1
Ricky Whittle 50/1

Looks a straight shootout between Richard Dunwoody and Jo Wood as to who'll be second eliminated as the others probably have their fanbases.

OT: Alesha Dixon doesn't seem to be able to have her own opinion and is getting royally booed for it.

Strictly Come Dancing - News - 'Strictly' fans complain about Dixon - Digital Spy

[trickrick]

Having watched the programmes yesterday it came as absolutely no surprise that Martina went out.  Obviously having an ante post bet on her I watched her quite closely. She wasn’t particularly bad, but Jade and Ali were streets ahead of her in ability.  But more importantly she did not do anything to endear herself to the audience.  Being foreign and not having a particularly good command of the English language didn’t help, but she was soooo 2 dimensional..  Lacked any personality – which is so important in reality shows, and to be honest she really didn’t look like she wanted to be there.  It was as if she was there to take the money  as she was so uncomfortable.   It was inevitable that she would be in the bottom 2, and although she was better than many of the men, she had zero public appeal and therefore I’m pretty certain she would have received the least votes anyhow. Len was quite right to take her out of the show at the beginning as she offered nothing.. 

So a lesson to be learnt in terms of watching the show before placing a bet...

Anyhow I may post my thoughts on the rest later, but I definitely won’t be sticking another bet on until the rest of the contestants have performed next week.

[stereoman]

Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1245: Richard Dunwoody is 7/4 favourite with Boylesports to be the second star booted out of Strictly Come Dancing on Saturday.

The champion jockey and his partner Lilia Kopylova are expected to feature in a dance-off with rock-star spouse Jo Wood and Brendan Cole, who are 5/2 to leave.

The firm also offer 4/6 that a couple will outscore last week’s best total of 60, after The Bill actress Ali Bastian and partner Brian Fortuna impressed judges with their romantic waltz and rumba.

Meanwhile, under-fire judge Alesha Dixon has been criticised for her lack of incisive comments and a tendency to sit on the fence.

She awarded a total of 10 sixes and sevens last week and Boylesports go 2/1 that she awards even more (between 11 and 15) this week.

The BBC have refused to reschedule the show to avoid clashing with X Factor, despite attracting 2million fewer viewers than their ITV rival. Strictly is 4/1 to draw the bigger Saturday audience this week.

Boylesports entertainment spokesperson Nicola McGeady said: "After just two dances, the couples last week set the bar really high.

"There's big hopes for hunky Ricky Whittle to top ex co-star Ali Bastian’s score, but judging by the glimpse we had of their group mambo last week it looks as though poor Jo and Richard will be toughing it out to stay in the competition."

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Other Boylesports Specials:

Which Judge Will Be The First To Award A Perfect 10?

Alesha 15/8
Len 13/8
Bruno 3/1
Craig 6/1

Who Will Go the Furthest ?

* Ricky Whittle 8/11, Ali Bastian 'evens'
* Jade Johnson 4/5, Laila Rouass 'evens'
* Phil Tufnell 8/11, Natalie Cassidy 'evens'

[stereoman]

Week Two specials from Betfred:

What will be the HIGHEST INDIVIDUAL score awarded by a judge in week 2 of series seven of the BBC’s Strictly Come Dancing?

Nine 11/10
Eight 6/5
Seven Or Under 6/1
Ten 15/2

What will be the LOWEST INDIVIDUAL score awarded by a judge in week 2 of series seven of the BBC’s Strictly Come Dancing?

Three Or Under 8/15
Four 7/4
Five 13/2
Six Or Over 20/1

Which two celebrities will compete in the elimination 'dance off' in week 2 of series seven of the BBC’s Strictly Come Dancing?

Richard Dunwoody 4/7
Jo Wood 8/11
Craig Kelly 7/4
Natalie Cassidy 2/1
Phil Tuffnell 9/2
Zoe Lucker 6/1
Laila Rouass 8/1
Ricky Whittle 12/1

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I can't see racing fans bothering to vote for Richard Dunwoody and I don't see how (sight unseen) Jo Wood charms the watching public despite her split with Ronnie Wood I can't see her getting 'sympathy' votes from that (that would be weird).

[stereoman]

Updated second elimination odds from Paddy Power (Friday's scores in brackets):

Richard Dunwoody (19) 4/5
Jo Wood (18) 11/8
Craig Kelly (22) 7/1
Natalie Cassidy (24) 16/1
Phil Tufnell (29) 25/1
Laila Rouass (30) 40/1
Zoe Lucker (30) 40/1
Ricky Whittle (33) 100/1

[stereoman]

Craig Kelly was in the bottom two but Richard Dunwoody is gone.

Strictly Come Dancing - News - Richard Dunwoody voted off 'Strictly' - Digital Spy

[stereoman]

Bettingzone are tipping Phil Tufnell and Chris Hollins to win outright.

'THE CAT' CAN GET THE CREAM: Betting Zone - Racing Betting, Football Betting, Golf Betting, Sports Betting, Cheeky Punt

Can't see it happening to be honest but Phil should win most of the H2Hs if he's in the bottom two.

[stereoman]

Third elimination odds:

Jo Wood 10/3 (Bet365/Boylesports)
Lynda Bellingham 9/2 (Coral)
Joe Calzaghe 5/1 (Coral)
Craig Kelly 6/1 (totesport)
Rav Wilding 9/1 (Betfred)
Jade Johnson 22/1 (Blue Square/Sportingbet)
Natalie Cassidy 25/1 (Betfred/totesport)
Ricky Groves 25/1 (Betfred)
Chris Hollins 25/1 (totesport)
Laila Rouass 50/1 (Boylesports/totesport)
Zoe Lucker 66/1 (Betfred/Ladbrokes)
Phil Tufnell 66/1 (Ladbrokes/totesport)
Ali Bastian 150/1 (Ladbrokes/totesport/VCBet)
Ricky Whittle 250/1 (Ladbrokes/totesport/VCBet)

Well if the last two weeks are anything to go by Craig and Rav aren't going to last too long. Lynda's got the 'Loose Women' fanbase going I suppose. Jo Wood can't last for too much longer. Joe's a robot but is probably popular enough to last at least a couple of more weeks.

Craig and Rav value bets to be the third person eliminated but no bet for me. It's always seemingly too random.