Mercury Music Prize 2009

[stereoman]

Today's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1725: Florence and the Machine and Bat For Lashes are the joint 7/2 favourites with Sky Bet to win this year's Mercury Prize after a shortlist of 12 was confirmed yesterday.

Bat For Lashes frontwoman Natasha Khan and singer Florence Welch from Florence and the Machine are two of five female performers in the running for the prestigious award, which is decided by an independent panel of industry figures and music journalists and will be announced in September.

Electro-pop duo La Roux - led by singer and synth player Elly Jackson - are also among the leading contenders at 6/1 although the last time a woman scooped the prize was back in 2002 when Ms Dynamite won with her album A Little Deeper.

The women are facing competition from rock band Kasabian, who are available at 12/1 with their third album West Ryder Pauper Lunatic Asylum, while another act with mainstream appeal Glasvegas are 10/1. The Glaswegian four-piece's self-titled album reached number two in the UK charts last September.

Friendly Fires' fusion of dance, rock and pop has gained entry and can be backed at 6/1 while art-school rockers The Horrors - featuring Peaches Geldof's ex Faris Badwan - are 9/2 with their second album Primary Colours.

The list is dominated by debut releases - seven out of 12 - also including Speech Therapy by south London rapper Speech Debelle, who is priced at 14/1 for glory.

Sweet Billy Pilgrim's album Twice Born Men is 20/1 for victory and the same prize is available for Irish folk musician Lisa Hannigan while The Invisible and Led Bib, both priced at 25/1, complete the line-up.

Sky Bet's Helen Jacob said: "A woman hasn't won the Mercury Prize since Miss Dynamite in 2002 but with female artists prominent at the head of the betting this year, there's a good chance we'll see a woman come out on top on September 8.

"All the early money has been for Brits Critics Choice Award winner Florence and the Machine. However, the Mercury Prize is notoriously difficult to predict so as ever the value could well lie beyond the favourites."

Meanwhile Coral have reported that all the money of the first couple of days has been for The Horrors and have been forced to slash their price to 5/1 from 9/1.

"There was the usual mixed early flurry of money when we issued prices, but by far the best backed was The Horrors and they were cut to 5-1 (from 9-1) after being to lose five figures," said Coral spokesman Gary Burton.

[stereoman]

I've been tracking the price movements since January but only because Ladbrokes started it. It's been a mini-obsession for me and only Ladbrokes' team of oddsmakers can beat it. Boylesports and Sportingbet tried a bit of ante-post in the last four weeks or so but nothing to Ladbrokes' extent.

Last year's Mercury Music Prize was one of the worst times of my life not just because of Elbow winning but because of 'off-the-field activities'.

I think whatever odds you can get on The Horrors seems good at the moment as I'm sure between now and September they'll be pushed into favouritism. Odd to think that Coral's have a five-figure liability on them though inside 48 hours though and are still dangling 5/1. Ladbrokes should have bigger liabilities though and fear both them and Florence and the Machine as they had The Horrors at around 20/1 ante-post and 10/1 for Florence.

Either would be a terrible result for the bookies. I said Ladbrokes have set themselves up for a fall back in January, and I think the hint is there to be taken.

Who do I want to win personally? Never got over the fact that Bat for Lashes lost to the awful Klaxons so Natasha Khan winning it, would be nice.

Any money on it? No. This is purely for info.

[slick]

I've only ever heard of La Roux, is that a sign of getting old

Doesent really put me in a position to pass any judgements does it but i quite like La Roux, she's a funny looking fcucker though, at first i thought it was special effects and a manequin singing, i was taken aback when i realised she was human.

I'll have a listen to the others in my friday night chill out zone, I see Kasabians there, aye i've also heard of them but couldent name a track they have sang sang and how can people expect to get on calling themselves 'florence and the machine' or 'bat for lashes', there again i suppose it did the boom town rats no harm but i'm sure they could have come up with summat better.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Seems to be a fair-sized gamble on Lisa Hannigan pushing her into third/fourth/fifth favouritism from 25/1 to around 10/1 and less.

Looks like Ladbrokes could be saved from an ante-post gamble being landed as she wasn't quoted ante-post!

[gaillimh]

Stereoman, there's never really a logic to these things as its so subjective. All the talk about that Little Boots has gone off the rails as she hasn't even made it this far !
Last year Elbow weren't fancied were they ? I thinks its a great album, but I've liked them from Asleep At The Back. Did they ruin your bet or something ?
I remember here in Ireland the Divine Comedy winning the Irish version, at 50/1. Everyone, Neil Hannon included, was stunned.
How open is the voting for these things. I'm sure the insiders get their money on right at the death.

[stereoman]

Little Boots isn't mentioned in this thread so I assume you're reading through the hidden Digital Spy thread where myself, a representative of Ladbrokes' odds compilers and a bunch of others were speculating ante-post.

Elbow were bet on eventually as though they couldn't lose. I just don't like them or understand why they're suddenly in vogue. It was the worst time of my life for a completely different reason though.

I remember talking about the Choice Music Prize over at OLBG where yes, The Divine Comedy sprung a huge surprise a couple of years ago.

I always suggest the organsiers at every awards bash are in on it. If bookmakers were smart theyed stop putting up odds for things such as the scummy Brit Awards as well.

[stereoman]

Speech Debelle is now second favourite at around 4s+ with Florence and the Machine an uneasy 2/1+ general favourite. Next 24 hours or so of betting will be interesting.

Friendly Fires has been tipped by someone of Radio Five's Up All Night as being the most different and should therefore win. Steve Lamacq who's hosting BBC 6 Music's coverage of the ceremony has also tipped them alongside Lisa Hannigan.

Me? Don't really care who eventually wins as I haven't placed a bet but I'll be very disappointed if Glasvegas (epic dull), Kasabian (absolutely don't need it), Lisa Hannigan (lovely but unremarkable and should have been nominated a few years ago alongside Damien Rice) or Speech Debelle (would be a worse winner than Ms Dynamite) wins.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and William Hill still have odds up.

A late big gamble on Kasabian has shunted them up to be second/third favourites at around 3s-5s behind Florence and the Machine who's still favourite at a best-priced 11/4 ahead of Speech Debelle at 4/1.

The Horrors/Bat for Lashes at around 6s and 7s with Friendly Fires at 9s. Lisa Hannigan and La Roux at 10s, Glasvegas at 14s+, The Inviisble, Led Bib and Sweet Billy Pilgrim at 33s+.

Mercury Prize Winning Act Betting Odds

If Kasabian win I'm going to be very VERY disappointed.

[stereoman]

Speech Debelle wins. *YAWN*

She was never 33/1 bet down all the way to 4/1 but I'm sure that bookie who took that bet on disagrees vehemently.