BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2009

[stereoman]

Closing in fast and should have got a move on much much sooner but there's only one name worth mentioning right now...Jenson Button.

Pretty much since Jenson won the second race of the current F1 season his price to win SPotY has dropped faster than Ricky Hatton being knocked off a cliff by Manny Pacquaio whilst being tied to Beth Ditto and Rik Waller!

Rubens Barrichello's car conked out yesterday but one has to assume Ross Brawn's a smart bugger and has rigged Jenson's car differently and he'd surely would love to cash in on those monster 80/1 tickets that he and his sneaky insiders have on Jenson to win the F1 Championship.

Ladbrokes go 'evens' on Jenson Button to win but that probably won't last for long as everybody else is odds-on. The only thing about Jenson that might dissuade voters is that the tabloids might have some dirt to dish out on him but mind you, they haven't criticised him for living outside the UK like they did with Lewis Hamilton. S'funny that innit?

It might be a little unfair that Lewis Hamilton can make history in the last two years and not get the SPotY award but hey, it took an unbeaten world champion and a guy who won three gold medals to deny him!

Unless Andy Murray (7/2 and less generally) somehow wins Wimbledon this is almost assuredly nailed on for Jenson Button?

The others who'll make up the numbers are probably in order of chances of winning the thing are:

Carl Froch - currently 50/1 with Bet365/Betfred and 199/1 on Betfair and with good reason as there was no live coverage on British TV of his fairly flukey win over Jermain Taylor with only highlights shown on ITV4 which boxing fans should be up in arms about still. He's currently the only British world boxing champion at present which helps his cause. No chance that Ricky Hatton or David Haye will 'steal' his vote either but there's...

Amir Khan ~ Yep, if he beats Andreas Kotelnik like he's 'supposed' to then that loss against Colombian Bredis Prescott will be forgotten about very quickly. I'm not convinced by that win over Marco Antonio Barrera at all though and Andreas will be a tough nut to crack. Currently 33/1 with various bookies and 54/1 on Betfair.

Kevin Pietersen ~ Looks like he could have come into form just at the right time and although the Twenty20 World Cup can be considered a bit Mickey Mouse by some of the snobbier cricket fans if England win it then the British sports press will forget their prejudices very quickly and start taking it very seriously. 50/1 with Betfred and 35/1 on Betfair.

Claire Taylor ~ I'm stunned that there are no prices on her as she's only ranked the number one female cricketer in the world, made history as the first female to be named one of Wisden's Cricketers of the Year and part of the England side that won the Women's Cricket World Cup as well as the Ashes. I suppose part of the problem is that it was all on Sky.

Ryan Giggs ~ If Manchester United had won the Champions League then Ryan would be a bigger contender but despite that very odd win over in the PFA's Player of the Year award which was generally on his body of work over the years rather than what he did over the season he may very get the 'Oh well it's about time we recognised him' nomination like they do with folks like Phil Taylor. Currently 40/1 with Ladbrokes and 119/1 on Betfair.

Mark Cavendish ~ I don't get it with this guy. Wins a few stages of various Tours then buggers off, is a world champion at what he does but hardly outstanding but I suppose my valuation methods are high. Currently 33/1 generally and 40/1 on Betfair.

Can't think of any viable contenders outside these eight to be honest.

[BetfairGuy]

Presuming Button wins the world championship, then the only other people in with a chance are Murray if he wins Wimbledon or possibly the US Open, or any English cricketer that grabs the Ashes by the scruff of the neck.

Other than that, it would probably need a British winner in one of the Majors in golf. I did think that David Haye would have had a shot, had he dispensed with both of the Klitschko brothers this year, but his back injury has ended that.

[ONEDUNME]

Given that Murray probably needs to win Wimbledon to take this, then any potential backers should just back him to win Wimbledon instead as it's a bigger price.


I agree that if there's going to be an upset it's going to come from a cricketer. How about Stuart Broad at 130 on betfair?

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Bookmakers erring on the side of caution (or 'wimping out' if you want) by making Andy Murray generally the same price for him to win Wimbledon as he is to win SpotY 2009 which is around 5/2.

It seems like William Hill are reading. Hello! Claire Taylor 50/1 with them. I fully expect the BBC will remember her whilst everybody else will go "WHO!?". If the BBC are scratching around looking for female representation in their final 10 in November then surely she has to be one of the first one or two names mentioned? Charlotte Edwards (the captain of the England women's cricket team) got her MBE and well nobody generally cares.

Yeah, there was a discussion over on Betfair (I haven't visited that forum in ages) and yeah, the price on Jenson Button to win SPotY is silly and for the risk-to-reward ratio to work you'd have to severely lump on just to make it worth it..and it still has to come in!

I don't understand the fuss over Rory McIlroy myself. Now THAT's manufactured hype.

(CUE: Rory McIlroy wins the US Open)

Yeah, the World Championship athletics might have a say in this but the obvious gold medal shot is Christine Ohuruogu but people don't seem to want to get behind her as say they do with the likes of Jessica Ennis or Kelly Sotherton (yes to either please! WHEEE!!) whose gold medal prospects aren't that good.

Kevin Pietersen doing himself no harm at all right now and depending on what happens on Monday night against the West Indies it might be all for nought if he isn't fit for the Ashes then his chances will fade away. Mind you, there's the thing about having to beat Australia...

Andrew Flintoff the general third favourite at 20/1!? I cannae be doing with that!

S'funny how the Darren Clarke/Lewis Hamilton/Rebecca Adlington gambles have been foiled though innit? Will it happen for a fourth year in a year and to Jenson Button!?

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Looks like at this early stage...yes.

Today's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1545: Andy Murray has been the subject of a gamble of late, not only for Wimbledon, but to win the BBC Sports Personality too, his odds have been slashed to 7/4 (from 3/1) with bookmakers Coral over the last couple of days as his price to win at SW19 has tumbled.

"Murray's Wimbledon chances have improved with the withdrawal of Nadal, he has been backed into 2/1, and with a good run expected there he has been supported to win the BBC end of year prize too," said spokesman gary Burton.

"With Jenson Button having a poor British Grand Prix, all the Sports Personality money has been for Murray, who he is now only 7/4."

Button is still the SPOTY favourite at even money (from 8/11) and it is 40/1 bar the two with cyclist Mark Cavendish and golfer Rory McIlroy next best.

[Kiko]

Stereoman.

Can you put in double the Murray to win Wimbledon and to win SPOTY? Surely its as simple as if Murray wins Wimbledon he wins SPOTY? I don't see any other outstanding personality than the great Andy Murraaaaay

[Beanie]

Not a chance Kiko. If Murray is 3.95 to win Wimbledon then best price on the double of Wimbledon/Sports Personality will be about 3.96.

[stereoman]

I honestly don't know so you'd have to ask a bookie whether they would accept such a double (I know Stan James won't and they've priced both events to happen at 2/1!).

Someone might offer a 'special price' combining the two but probably not at very attractive odds.

Ultimately though Andy Murray has had Roger Federer's number quite recently, Murray hasn't done it against Federer on grass as it were. I will be surprised if Murray beats Federer on grass but hey, maybe Murray's 'timing' is impeccable?

[slambert]

I'd love to see Murray win SPOTY, well I'm Irish so would love to see McIlroy win but neither are goign to happen. Button has it in the bag I reckon.

[slick]

I think a lot depends on the result of the Ashes this yr Slambert as theres not much else to go on, welcome to TDP by the way.
Should Murray win Wimbledon then its all other bets off as far as i'm concerned as nothing will touch him barring Button winng F1.

[BetfairGuy]

Andy Murray is not a bad price when you consider that even if he didn't win Wimbledon, he would still stand a decent chance of winning SPOTY, should he win the US Open, where he reached the final last year.

Outside of Murray and Jensen, there's very few with any real chance. It would take a golfer to win a major, or an Ashes win to see a real challenger. If you were looking at an outsider then perhaps Carl Froch at 180 with a view to trade, at Betfair might be worth a small punt, though it would be dependent on him facing and beating an opponent such as Kessler or Hopkins (and the fight actually being screened on TV).

[trickrick]

I agree with your sentiments regarding Murray. As well as the US Open point, the country is slowly but surely going Murray Mad - what with messages from the Queen and the like.. It'll be near hysteria come Sunday if he is in the Final. You could almost see a gallant defeat in the Final against Federer be enough to possibly take SPOTY

Not sure how popular Button is to be honest..Ok I know F1 is now on the BBC, but he has a bit of a playboy image to contend with and with all the negative press about F1 politics, whose to say?

[Frodo]

I think Button is more popular than Hamilton but that's not saying much. If Murray fails to make the final at Wimbledon he doesn't have a hope, probably even if he wins the US Open because I'd imagine alot of voters only watch tennis for two weeks a year. Although he'll have the Scottish vote I still don't think Murray is as popular as you'd perhaps expect elsewhere.

The only value for me is to either take one of the cricketers (Flintoff/Broad look about the best value at big prices) or David Haye. I'm not sure the extent of the injury that kept Haye out of his Heavyweight title shot but if he gets another shot before the end of the year (November woud be ideal) and win then the current 100/1 will look a bit daft. He still wouldn't be favourite to win but you'll be able to lay it off for a bit of profit.

[BetfairGuy]

Yes, David Haye could be a contender and it will be a question of moving fast before the market reacts, when his next fight is announced. Not sure if he'll get a world title shot this year though.

I think a US Open win would be enough for Murray to take SPOTY. Greg Rusedski won it having been runner-up at the US Open (in what admittedly was a poor year) and he was less accepted by the British general public than Murray.

Four hours of prime time BBC1 exposure last night, won't have harmed Murray's chances either.

[stereoman]

Yesterday's Bettingzone Market News:

1415: It is not just at Wimbledon where Andy Murray has been the subject of a gamble and leaving bookies with massive liabilities, the British number one tennis star has also been backed heavily to lift the end of year BBC Sports Personality Award and is now 11/8, just behind Jenson Button at 6/5 with bookmakers Coral.

The Barking firm also report that the Scot would now be a worse result than the F1 star, who was backed down from 100/1 after a fantastic start to his season.

"All of the SPOTY money over the last month has been for Murray after Button's early invincible form dipped, and the further he goes at Wimbledon the shorter he gets and the bigger the payout will be," said Coral spokesman Gary Burton.

"Reaching the final could prove good enough, especially if Button fails to win the world championship."

Cycler Mark Cavendish is the 40/1 third favourite with Coral and begins his Tour de France challenge on Saturday.

=============

Now all Mark Cavendish can really do is win the Green Jersey. He might make up the top ten as a result but I'd hardly rank him third favourite (still Claire Taylor right now imo).

All depends on Roger Federer not Andy Murray imo!

I will really be surprised if say, Andy loses the final and Jenson wins the championship that the vote goes to Andy instead.