[stereoman]

Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1435: Daniel Day-Lewis is the hottest favourite in Paddy Power’s Oscars betting following today’s nominations.

Having already won the Golden Globe British-born Lewis is just 2/9 to win the Oscar for Best Actor for his role in ‘There Will Be Blood’.

However in the most star-studded of awards, Day-Lewis faces competition from Johnny Depp (6/1), George Clooney (8/1) and Tommy Lee Jones (25/1) for the prized statue.

Elsewhere No Country For Old Men is the evens favourite for Best Film with Brit film Atonement at 5/2.

Julie Christie is 1/3 for Best Actress and Cate Blanchett, 12/1 for Best Actress and 5/4 favourite for Best Supporting Actress, is 50/1 to land an unprecedented double.

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There's the BAFTAs and um, the Razzies as well to mull over. I've got a few bets lined up and I won't just stick 'em on my 'Kitchen Sink' thread like last year.

Sportingbet have a 'Most Oscars won by a single film' market:

'Less than 5' 6/5, Exactly 5 '9/4', 'Exactly 6 or 7' 7/2 and More than 7' 6/1.

I put £100 at 11/10 on 'Less than 5' and then it moved to 6/5 whilst all the other prices stayed the same....I must have got the 'special price'.

It's a crap bet come to think of it. I've pegged No Country for Old Men to win at least Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Editing as well.

Full list of Oscar nominations

[stereoman]

Calendar dates to remember:

* BAFTA Film Awards ~ Sunday 10th February
* Irish Film and Television Awards ~ Sunday 17th February
* Razzies ~ Saturday 23rd February
* Oscars ~ Sunday 24th February

I'm gonna stick £68.02 at 9/4 that Eddie Murphy will win Worst Actor at the Razzies over at Paddy Power.

EDIT: Eddie Murphy's already cut into 15/8 because of my bet.

Lindsay Lohan is nailed on at 3/1 ON to win Worst Actress but this is a runner and at good odds. I think he's hated more than Nicolas Cage, Jim Carrey, Adam Sandler and even Cuba Gooding, Jr are.

[stereoman]

I think Bodog have gone insane...




EDIT: Someone beat me to the odds on No Country for Old Men and Daniel Day-Lewis.




I'm betting on:

* $55 on Daniel Day-Lewis winning Best Actor at 10/11 to win $50
* $50 on Julie Christie winning Best Actress at 2/1 to win $100
* $50 on Javier Bardem winning Best Supporting Actor at 5/4 to win $62.50

Director's iffy but 2/1 on the Coen brothers looks stonking value right now and surely won't be there for long. Javier Bardem may be beaten by old fella Hal Halbrook like how Alan Arkin beat Eddie Murphy but we shall see. Cate Blanchett's favourite to win Supporting Actress and rightfully so but it's a fairly wide open category.

EDIT: They've chopped Daniel Day-Lewis' odds yet again this time from 10/11 into 5/7 now and Javier Bardem's odds from 5/4 into 20/21. There are some folks who are more eagle-eyed and quicker than I am!

I already have an ante-post bet on No Country for Old Men winning Best Picture at Sportingbet but it'd be extremely poor showing if I afterevented as to what they were when I didn't say so before. I'm not betting on it again at odds-on though.

Winners of the various guild awards will be red herrings or will go on to win the corresponding Oscar so watch out as always.

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by stereoman

* $55 on Daniel Day-Lewis winning Best Actor at 10/11 to win $50
* $50 on Julie Christie winning Best Actress at 2/1 to win $100
* $50 on Javier Bardem winning Best Supporting Actor at 5/4 to win $62.50

Originally Posted by stereoman

EDIT: They've chopped Daniel Day-Lewis' odds yet again this time from 10/11 into 5/7

Nice bit of value betting there squire..Bodog now go 1-10 on Day-Lewis, 1/8 on Javier, and 1/3 on Christie....

(Presumably you took the 5/7 ? )

[stereoman]

Nah I did just about manage to bet on Daniel Day-Lewis at 10/11 and Javier Bardem at 5/4 but I couldn't quite cut-and-paste, plonk it on Photobucket and edit a message three times inside five minutes.

The bets have still gotta come in though otherwise it's been a pricey and pointless exercise.

Bodog's odds have pretty much come in line with the rest of the industry. I've no idea why they were so soft in the first place.

I've got an inkling that Cate Blanchett could win Supporting Actress again and then be the one to give a heartfelt tribute to Heath Ledger's passing. Call me twisted but that's what I'm thinking right now.

Meanwhile...the BAFTAs could be like shooting fish in a barrel but Atonement is surprisingly priced quite nicely to either be a gift or a complete red herring. Apparently there's been some lumpy bets on No Country for Old Men to win the BAFTA for Best Film...which is odd imo. Unscrupulous BAFTA insiders betting on an upset?

Paddy Power had Atonement at 5/6 but have nudged it down to 4/6 (same as Ladbrokes who saw money plonked on No Country for Old Men).

Sky Bet had Atonement at 'evens' and then into 2/1 on but have generally got most of the BAFTA odds down again. They've only left Rising Star to bet on. Should go to someone British and Sienna Miller just about qualifies and she's the got the highest profile of the five...apart from Shia LeBoeuf who could be the spoiler. I can't figure who'd vote for Sam Riley but he'd deserve it if he won.

I would lump 'heavily' on Atonement to win Best Film but I'm fearful that BAFTA are gonna spring a surprise. They occasionally go British like last year with The Queen and they should do so again this year with 'Atonement' but why 4/6? I expect I'm being pessimistic and crying wolf again and those odds will be trimmed rather sharpish and that 'Atonement' will win pretty damn easily.

I don't have as much confidence last year as when Eva Green won (it was a piece of piss last year as she had the highest profile and there's the fanatical James Bond fans who'd vote for her. Not so easy this year.).

[stereoman]

The Coen brothers win the Directors Guild of America award for No Country for Old Men!!

I'm putting £50 on the Coen brothers at the 5/4 over at Coral's because it won't be there later on today.

[slick]

Funny buggers arent they the Oscars as they are more for the 'luvvy' brigade, and Atonement seems to tick all the boxes just as 'The English Patient' did.

No country for old men is a great film, well the first hr is then it gets a bit daft and lost me but the Coen Brothers have a bit of clout and maybe it could be their turn this yr.

Sweeney Todd the musical ffs , i bet thats riveting anybody seen it yet?

[stereoman]

The Screen Actors Guild awards have been given out and Daniel Day-Lewis, Julie Christie, Javier Bardem and Ruby Dee win individual honours with No Country for Old Men winning Ensemble.

I think three out of the four acting winners look locked on to win for Oscars. I'm not so sure of Ruby Dee though but she is a veteran and she is the oldest nominee (older than Hal Halbrook by a few months) at this year's Oscars.

No Country for Old Men looks locked and loaded. I jus=t wish I bet on 'exactly five' as NCfOM looks likely to get Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Editing but will lose Cinematography, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

The Coen brothers drop like a stone to 2/1 ON and worse generally. Lord knows what odds Ruby Dee will be in the afternoon when the bookies readjust their odds but Stan James/Bet Direct have her at 12/1!

Stan James/Bet Direct are the only ones who are keeping their stalls open which is remarkable considering that most other bookies have been quick to shut their doors over the years when the SAG awards are being dished out.

I'm gonna have a small punt of £16.50 on that 12/1 at Stan James just because the odds are so great.

[stereoman]

The Producers Guild of America have given their top award to No Country for Old Men yesterday evening and combined with winning the Directors Guild of America award, the Screen Actors Guild win double for Javier Bardem and 'Best Ensemble' it looks good and ready that it's gonna win 'Best Picture' at the Oscars.

...I expect something stupid like 6/1 ON by tonight. If NCfOM wins the Writers Guild of America award it's almost assuredly game over.

It's a week away from the BAFTAs but it's very annoying to see that these bookies have started to pull out already and in this order: Ladbrokes (two weeks ago), Sky Bet (last week), William Hill and Boyle Sports (both yesterday).

The only two sticking it out right now are Bet365 and Paddy Power.

Daniel Day-Lewis (1/8), Julie Christie (2/7) and Javier Bardem (1/7) should all win their categories and they're far too short to consider a serious gamble (I'm not made of money!).

The only mysteries left are Best Film, Director, Rising Star and Supporting Actress.




Atonement should win Best Film. It's the British nominee, it's probably the only reason it managed to get through to the final five for 'Best Picture' at the Oscars (because of the British bloc vote) and they should be sending it's way to the Oscars as a winner. It would astound me if it didn't pick up the BAFTA for Best Film. This is where No Country for Old Men won't win.

Paddy's are allowing me a maximum of £279.73 at 4/6 but I don't have that much of a death wish. I'll stick £100 on though. If it doesn't win Best Film I may as well quit.

The Coen brothers winning Best Director would be a 'consolation prize' and the BAFTAs have been known to go a bit wacky and not tie the winners of Film and Director together. I'm not betting on it though. No liquidity at the Fair unless you count two £4 bets on The Bourne Ultimatum and The Lives of Others!

Rising Star is awkward. If one's to go by Betfair then it's Shia LeBeouf's or Sam Riley's to lose...however there's little liquidity at the moment.



Not a category worth betting on but I think it's as good an excuse to get Sienna Miller an award and to grab a few front pages in the newspapers.

I'll stick £20 at 7/2 on the young Irish girl Saoirse Ronan to win Best Supporting Actress. It could easily go to Cate Blanchett and judging by the minimal liquidity at Betfair it will but I'm taking a small gamble that it won't.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. William Hill are fearing the worst if Atonement wins Best Film at the BAFTAs on Sunday. They estimate the industry turnover could topple one million pounds by Sunday.

I highly doubt that what with everyone bar Paddy Power having shut up shop. No smoke without fire but hey, the winner's still gotta be announced. C'mon Atonement!

Atonement Odds on for BAFTA : Awards Daily

OT: I never saw 'Atonement' at 6/4!

Atonement Slashed To Will Bafta - Knightly White On The Night? | William Hill Press Office

[fasteddy]

Great stuff as ever, Stereoman...

having had a wee Oscars/BAFTA's marathon of DVD's ( China's great isn't it) and a gander at Betfair... nothing really in the way of liquidity so the following is just my view...

BAFTA"s:
Best British Film:I am amazed that 'Atonement' is available at 1.44 for Best British film...seems a steal when against far better opposition for Best Film it's roughly the same! Enough liquidity to bet it as well.

Best Film: There Will Be Blood..Also, an epic like TWBB, with the sort of majorly 'actORRRRRR' performance by the BRITISH born Day-Lewis,..... I think it has a very good chance of sneaking a surprise for Best Film at decent odds, with Atonement getting the Best British Film award.

Director: again Anderson has weighed in with a fine EPIC, something that has been missing from the movie world for a while now.

Rising Star (voted for by the Public): Ellen Page in Juno...brilliant. She carried the whole film as opposed to most of the other contenders.

Shia has been a bit overexposed lately, but his performances have stayed at a high level. Indiana Jones next!...he's made it...Shia..hebrew for 'gift from God'..well he's been given it already then, hasn't he?

JUNO's hot odds-on to win the Oscar for best original screenplay for 1st time hopeful Diablo Cody , but at the BAFTA's she's up against better opposition and no certainty, and as this is voted on by the public and not the Academy the likelyhood of Juno being watched by the demographic that votes in these things, combined with the numerous awards already for Page in other Film festivals, and her prominent profile across the board, makes her a terrific bet.

Adapted Screenplay: There Will Be Blood...again the screenplay here is amazing...the arc of the film and Anderson's skill in maintaining the pace and tension over the period of time presented...coupled with a script that was parsed to the bone but stayed sharp throughout...Loved it.

Original Screenplay: Either American Gangsters or Michael Clayton.....Juno will be left to the Americans to praise, while BAFTA will reward a meatier subject here.

Foreign Film: will the board be controversial and go for Ang Lee's 'Lust, Caution'? The director has a quality track record, plus the nod to anything Chinese in Olympic year, along with being seen to be patrons of anti-censorship as Lee is refusing to make the required cuts to get a rating in USA...yep, this has possibilites.

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly...4 Oscar Nominations, 24 awards already and 27 noninations.....definitely close runner.


Oscars:
Best Film: "There Will Be Blood"...absolutely superb...this has the feeling of being a real monster 'EPIC-type bet' for me in view of all the votes for NCfOM....the Coen's have delivered a nice piece, but nothing on the scale of Anderson's TWBB. Day-Lewis shits on everyone else, and while the film itself is not out to please the standard viewer, the same can be said of the Coen's.

I liked Bardem's performance but as a movie that left you bathed in wonderment, or exhausted from the rollercoaster journey of emotions?...no way....I'm more inclined to 'lay' NCfOM at the Oscars. Too 'technical' I feel, rather than emotional depth and range as evinced in TWBB.

The Coen's are churning them out at the moment, so you know there will be other opportunities for their body of work to be recognised. That's my take.

[stereoman]

If I brought my A-game with me I would have bet on Marion Cotillard (available as high as 11/2) in Best Actress instead of Saoirse Ronan who lost to the other British and Irish hopeful Tilda Swinton over in Best Supporting Actress. Oh well at least I came out of the BAFTAS with a profit (only two bets to yield £46.66...d'oh!).

Marion will probably be 5/4 to Julie Christie's 4/7 to bag the Best Actress Oscar now.

Betfair seems surprisingly a good indicator which if I was churlish suggests somebody already knew what was going to happen. Shia LeBeouf was the odds-on favourite to win the Rising Star Award over on the Fair and won. I suppose aftereventing suggests that he did star in the biggest film of the five though.

And as I noted in an awards forum, This Is England was backed off the boards and there were no odds available to win 'Best British Film' over at Betfair...guess what? It bloody won and was available at 4/1 over at Sky Bet on Saturday afternoon.

Why didn't I bet on the Coen brothers winning 'Best Director'!? It was a fcuking gimme!

Everything else was predictable, I suppose.

BBC NEWS | Entertainment | Bafta Film Awards 2008: The winners

I'm giving myself a score of C+ for the BAFTAs. I'm juggling too many plates and I let a few drop to the floor and even though I came out with some profit it could have been a lot more.

[stereoman]

...with little over a week to go there little of odds-against value to go with. Tilda Swinton is 12/1 to win Best Supporting Actress over at various bookies. A split vote is possible and she could be the lucky recipient. I thought her odds would be shorter than that after the BAFTA win.

I'm cooking up a fairly speculative bet for the Oscars but unfortunately it's at those scummers at bwin.

[trickrick]

Just had a look at the Oscar markets on Bodog..Best Picture..'Atonement' is 20/1 Quite a big price ?

However I guess it looks a done deal with 'No Country for Old Men' though..

[stereoman]

It's a very big price at Bodog but I don't know any British book who's offering that (It's a best-priced 10/1 over at Bet365). I think it's a tensive 'the BAFTA bloc vote can't carry it to a win at the Oscars...just look at The Queen last year!' feeling from the bookies.

I suppose we're due an absolute jawdropper like Chariots of Fire but that was over 25 years ago back in 1981. 'Crash' beating 'Brokeback Mountain' didn't really qualify as the Hollywood insiders were predicting that Crash would upset the favourite.

My bet over at bwin is for Best Foreign Language Film:



The only two in the race I think are the Polish film Katyn (it's about the massacre of Polish citizens in Katyn by Stalin's Russian forces) and the Austrian one The Counterfeiters (it's about some talented folks in a Nazi concentration camp who survive purely because the Nazis can use some folks' skills in creating fake money to cause havoc).

I'm going for the Austrian one merely because of the price. They're allowing me £33 to win £115.50. Fair dos under the circumstances.