Dancing on Ice (Series Three!)

stereoman · #1 (**permalink**) 20-12-2007, 07:00

I probably won't be betting on this much as the eliminations in the two previous series were on the whole 'unpredictable' and thus I'll generally just keep a watching brief. The other point I'll make is that it's on ITV so there'll probably be something odd going on as well.

ITV says the official list of contestants won't be revealed until January 7th with the series itself starting on Sunday 13th January. This hasn't stopped Ladbrokes putting up odds though with the odds compilers thinking Samantha Mumba will do an Alesha Dixon (probably all in-running or not so watch out for potential non-runners).

Dancing on Ice - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
ITV's official Dancing on Ice website

stereoman · #2 (**permalink**) 07-01-2008, 15:22

Well the list is out and there've been no changes. Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1545: Sky Bet has installed Hollyoaks actor Chris Fountain as the 10/3 favourite to win the third series of 'Dancing On Ice', which starts on Sunday.

Former Hear'Say star Suzanne Shaw and ex-Tennis ace Greg Rusedski are joint 4/1 second favourites while the 28/1 outsider of the bunch is 'How Clean is Your House' presenter Aggie Mackenzie.

In total there will be 12 celebrities who will perform ice skating routines in front of a live studio audience and they will be coached along the way by former Olympic champions Jayne Torvill and Christopher Dean.

Singers Gareth Gates, Samantha Mumba and television presenter Tim Vincent have also signed up for the programme.

They will be joined by Sarah Greene, best known for presenting BBC children's show Going Live, and ex-Emmerdale actress Linda Lusardi.

GMTV reporter Michael Underwood, sports presenter Natalie Pinkham and javelin star Steve Backley complete the line-up.

Rugby player Kyran Bracken was crowned champion last year.

Helen Jacob, Sky Bet's entertainment manager, said: "Cute Chris is the youngest and most fearless celebrity in the line-up and having played ice hockey semi-professionally in his youth, should be hard to beat."

Sky Bet 'Dancing On Ice' Winner odds:
* Chris Fountain 10/3
* Greg Rusedski 4/1
* Suzanne Shaw 4/1
* Gareth Gates 9/1
* Steve Backley 9/1
* Michael Underwood 10/1
* Linda Lusardi 10/1
* Natalie Pinkham 10/1
* Samantha Mumba 11/1
* Tim Vincent 11/1
* Sarah Greene 16/1
* Aggie MacKenzie 28/1

**trickrick** · #3 (**permalink**) 07-01-2008, 16:13

On paper a very trappy event, and you could have a reason for siding with everyone barr Aggie MacKenzie on that list. So considering that, some of the 9/1 or higher priced contestants could be worth looking at. Alas, nothing jumps out at me like Alesha did on SCD.. Bearing in mind that Ice skating is very much a specialist type of 'sport' I guess a watching brief is probably best this weekend.. Surprised its on a Sunday mind..

**trickrick** · #4 (**permalink**) 08-01-2008, 14:48

Hmmmm..checking the odds it appears there has been a bit of support for our stuttering pop-has been Gareth Gates..

stereoman · #5 (**permalink**) 08-01-2008, 16:15

9/1 into 7/2!? Have the producers already chosen who they want to win!? Unbelievable.

Even more of a reason why I avoid betting on this.

Beanie · #6 (**permalink**) 08-01-2008, 22:17

Still 6/1 about from what I can see. Quick rundown on the entrants from how I see it...

Chris Fountain 3/1 - Too short IMO. He's a bit of a reality TV whore and his 'huge teen following' is a bit of a myth IMO - particularly as this is on ITV.

Samantha Mumba 5/1 - Fits the Alesha mould to some extent I suppose, and being female does have an advantage in terms of having more imrpessive lifts in her routine. Bit short tho - the men tend to get a bit more respect from the public given that they usually have to do the more technical stuff.

Gareth Gates 6/1 - Hmmm, interesting. Young uns haven't really been tested on this show - Gareth should still have some sort of fan base remaining after his pop days, but I think it's the beefier males that do better in this show. Not Gareth then.

Suzanne Shaw 6/1 - Mmmm, fading pop star again, but I'd want bigger than that.

Tim Vincent 6/1 - Again, potential there, but at those odds?

Greg Rusedski 9/1 - Bit of a BBC, royal family lovers man is Greg, not made for a dancing prog on 3.

Michael Underwood 10/1 - big lump of a guy as far as I remember - the Andi Peters of this year?

Natalie Pinkman 10/1 - meh, unknown, bit too much ground to make up.

Linda Lusardi 16/1 - no chance I don't think. Public image aint good and I cant imagine ice skating is much better.

Steve Backley 16/1 - Mmm, poss a bit big. Sportsmen have a decent record in reality shows - good competitive instincts and generally well liked.

Sarah Greene 20/1 - bit too old to go all the way I think.

Aggie MacKenzie 33/1 -

----------------------------------------------------

Soooooooooo...Backley is the only one I could be interested in at the mo. No doubt he's a haddy on the skates tho so I'll watch this weeks show before any punting.

stereoman · #7 (**permalink**) 14-01-2008, 02:50

First to be eliminated is Sarah Greene who loses the skate-off 5-0 against Samantha Mumba. I don't think there were any odds on the first elimination though.

The Sun - Sarah Greene - Blue Peter presenter booted off Dancing On Ice

**trickrick** · #8 (**permalink**) 14-01-2008, 18:09

Well I missed the majority of the show this week due to having to travel to London for a training course on Sunday night. I saw Suzanne Shaw though who was very good, and I also saw Greg Rusedski who was very bad... Did anyone watch it? And if so can they comment? I was surprised that Samantha Mumba was in the bottom 2 - was she that bad? I thought she was one of the market leaders? Did anyone else stand out?I have a horrible feeling that Aggie (or whatever her name is) will do a Kate Garraway and just keep in on sympathy votes...We shall see...

stereoman · #9 (**permalink**) 15-01-2008, 04:20

Yeah I suspect that Aggie may survive for a couple of weeks more than she should probably do. I've no idea of the performances as I didn't watch the first show.

I suppose Chris Fountain having had previous ice skating experience albeit as an ice hockey player has come in useful. ITV though are right nobblers and I suspect someone's going to be nobbled.

Stan James have a few last longer match bets:

* Gareth Gates 8/15 vs Suzanne Shaw 11/8
* Greg Rusedski 5/6 vs Steve Backley 5/6
* Chris Fountain 1/7 vs Linda Lusardi 3/1
* Michael Underwood 1/8 vs Aggie Mackenzie 9/2
* Samantha Mumba 8/11 vs Natalie Pinkham 'evens'

Top female odds from Stan James:

Suzanne Shaw 'evens'
Linda Lusardi 7/2
Samantha Mumba 7/2
Natalie Pinkham 5/1
Aggie Mackenzie 20/1

Top male odds from Stan James:

Chris Fountain 11/8
Gareth Gates 7/4
Steve Backley 9/1
Greg Rusedski 9/1
Michael Underwood 9/1
Tim Vincent 14/1

2nd elimination odds from Stan James:

Aggie Mackenzie 9/4
Samantha Mumba 6/1
Greg Rusedski 6/1
Steve Backley 7/1
Natalie Pinkham 7/1
Linda Lusardi 8/1
Tim Vincent 8/1
Michael Underwood 10/1
Suzanne Shaw 16/1
Gareth Gates 33/1
Chris Fountain 50/1

Updated to win outright odds from Stan James:

Chris Fountain 2/1
Gareth Gates 5/2
Suzanne Shaw 9/2
Steve Backley 12/1
Linda Lusardi 12/1
Samantha Mumba 12/1
Greg Rusedski 12/1
Michael Underwood 12/1
Natalie Pinkham 16/1
Tim Vincent 20/1
Aggie Mackenzie 66/1

Winning gender odds from Stan James: Male 4/11, Female 15/8

**trickrick** · #10 (**permalink**) 17-01-2008, 22:26

Oki-Doki..Lets have a turn on the Dancin on Ice...

I guess I am due a bit of a downswing in success in these Markets, but hey maybe it won't happen here..

Anyhoo..Having watched a recording of the contestants I didnt see on Sunday, here is a quick resume on them..Strong consideration has to be made on the key Factor in this...The ITV viewer...

Chris Fountain is favourite, and to be fair he is the best technical skater..However Hollyoaks?? A bit cocksure of himself and he certainly won't have the Channel 4 following here. Can see a shock exit down the line..

Gareth Gates - A Pop Idol former winner who has done sod-all since shaggin Jordan. An added problem for him is the loss of his key identity - his stammer.. Still a pretty polished performance, but attitude is a bit suspect and isnt a warming personality.

Suzanne Shaw looks a natural on ice - nice personality and very graceful - for a short chunky lass with big tits..

Still I was extremely impressed with her, and a definate for the final - even at this early stage.

Michael Underwood..WTF..

.. As far as I'm concerned he was the worst by far, and yet bizarrely the judges loved him...How strange.. A GMTV regular will mean he should last a couple more weeks..

A battle of the sportsmen between Backley and Rusedski, and I can only see one winner.. Yep the Englishman Backley. Rusedski wasnt potrayed very well this week, and this will be his very swift demise. Granted they are both very similar, but Backley has the charisma (and the hip replacement..)

Hmmm..The battle of the injured between Samantha Mumba and Linda Lusardi. I saw 2 contrasting performances.. Linda was literally carried through the act, whereas you could see the potential in Samantha. Naturally elegant and with great legs, she could well become the most improved performer. To be fair Linda showed glimpses of elegance herself, and with the Emmerdale following in tow, she could do ok..

Natalie Pinkham is a bit of an enigma and an unknown. She certainly looks like she has the potential, but the fact that she is an unknown will not help her cause..

The price of 25/1 from Skybet on Tim Vincent shocked me and is definately value. The guy seemed to enjoy himself on the ice and I am certain there is more to come from him.

Finally Aggie. To be fair I expected worse. She doesnt take herself seriously - and knows she is pretty shit, and this kind of attitude will help her through possibly another week or two..

So what does this mean..? Well to me it means thatit should be uite interesting. However based on a decent price I am plumping for an early partially early dabble on Suzanne Shaw. I think that a female is due a win this year, and Suzanne definately shows that she is head and shoulders above the rest of the women. A superb first performance will put her in good stead for the rest of the series, and 5/1 may well be a bit of a steal further down the line.

Suzanne Shaw to win Dancing on Ice - 10 pt stake @ 5/1 (PaddyPower)

**trickrick** · #11 (**permalink**) 17-01-2008, 22:36

Well elimination looms again on SUnday and based on my thoughts above, I have a funny feeling that Aggie will survive again, not because she is so good, but because I suspect another Kate Garroway scenario..

Of the rest I can see a case for them all being supported.. I can see a great Mimba performance this week which should see her out of the bottom 2..

However one person that I keep eliminating from survival is Greg Rusedski.. He isnt great, but what is a bigger problem is the lack of charisma..Man - he is a professional sportsman brought up in Canada and he's still a shit skater..!! Not good, and if he continues to be portrayed a cocksure canadian, then he could well go this Sunday. And at 7/1 Paddy Power are certainly offering the nice prices this week !!

Greg Rusedski to be 2nd elimation - 2 pt stake @ 7/1 (PaddyPower)

Beanie · #12 (**permalink**) 17-01-2008, 22:39

If you like the 25/1 on Vincent then you'll love the 65.00s on Betfair Twickster - to be honest I can't disagree with anything you've said - my points about Backley all remain and given the history of sportspeople in dancing shows I like him plenty, and Shaw looks to fit the bill in terms of talent and personality as you say.

As soon as Betfair get their arses in gear and settle the Newcastle managers market I'll get on those 3 against the field(and failing that just shift some money in.)

**trickrick** · #13 (**permalink**) 17-01-2008, 22:44

Finally, a couple of matchbets that appeal.. And after this I'm gonna take cover in a darkened room..

..

Pretty much based on the logic explained on the posts above..

Steve Backley (5/6) Stan James v Greg Rusedski - 12 pt stake

Equal ability, but Steve is English, has charisma and a replaced hip - Greg doesnt..

Suzanne Shaw (11/8) v Gareth Gates - 8 pt stake

Charisma again, but also Gareth has too much competition with his male counterpart Chris - Suzanne doesnt appear to have any with the female side..