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  #76 (permalink)  
Old 17-12-2007, 18:51
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

Current Best Prives..

Alesha Dixon 2/5 (Better)
Matt D Angelo 85/40 (Extrabet)


Hmmm..I wouldnt be overly comfortable with the skinny odds on Alesha...

Of course she is a worthy favourite and should win, but funnier things have happened as we well know..

The one thing is Alesha's favour is the fact that they are dancing 5 dances. ALesha is immaculate and polished and wouldnt be troubled by the excessive routines. Matt on the other hand, flaps with just 2 dances and the fact he is in a final means that he is no doubt make more mistakes..

However the audience love him and he is a popular soapster...

If it is down to Audience vote, and he pulls off some good dances, who knows...

Suffice to say the 85/40 would tempt me more than 2/5.....

However is there is justice - Alesha will win !!!
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  #77 (permalink)  
Old 19-12-2007, 22:35
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

I guess the main worry for me is that the winner is purely based on viewer votes... And a good looking lad who has just received the first perfect score of the series, and acts in Eastenders, and has made a miraculous comeback after his shakey performance a fortnight ago can't be overlooked...

Matt is drifting a tad with some bookies - now best price 13/5 with VC Bet, whilst Alesha is shortening all the time - VC Bet go 1/4 with a few other firms cutting her to 2/7 and 1/3.. You can still get 2/5 if you are brave enough..

Alesha's price is short enough now and she SHOULD win...

(However I'm just a bit scared...)

Last edited by trickrick : 19-12-2007 at 22:48.
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  #78 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 15:42
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

It's hard to tell with only aftereventing clearing why the winner won. Alesha should win but hey, you're doing well to be sitting on a 12/1 shot at this stage.

Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1055: Sky Bet are offering a host of 'Strictly Come Dancing' special markets ahead of Saturday's dance-off between Alesha and Matt.

Matt is quoted at 7/2 to be awarded fewer judges' points than his rival yet still win the competition. Alesha is 4/9 to score higher with the judges and go on to lift the 'Strictly' glitter ball trophy.

With Saturday's grand final destined to be an emotional affair, Sky Bet also quote 6/4 for neither finalist to cry during the live show.

Helen Jacob, Sky Bet entertainment manager, said: "Gethin’s shock departure last week has meant that Alesha is an even stronger favourite going into the final. Sky Bet customers are reluctant to back Matt, who went to pieces on the dancefloor just a fortnight ago!"

The bookie is also offering odds on which judge will award the highest number of points during the final. Benevolent Bruno is the 10/11 favourite, with Len quoted at 11/10 , Arlene priced at 9/1 and stingy Craig Revel Horwood the 25/1 outsider.
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  #79 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 18:34
trickrick's Avatar
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by stereoman View Post
but hey, you're doing well to be sitting on a 12/1 shot at this stage.
I actually missed the 12/1 from Paddy, but the 10/1 I got from Partybets will suit me fine..

I am tempted with Bruno being the top marker, as the campster loves to fling his arm in the air as he raises a 10. It looks like I missed the evens that he shared with Len, so obviously people have been nibbling on him (ooer..)..10/11 is just about acceptable, and I may throw some money on that...We shall see..

I did also notice on oddschecker that Skybet were offering 6/4 for neither to cry, which I was willing to lump on..Alas it doesnt seem to be available on Skybet now as that was a cracking bet..Alesha is a hard bitch....

I get the feeling that the judges will really push Alesha for the win tommorw, so don't be suprised if Alesha gets at least a couple of perfect 10's.. Conscious that Matt probably a potentially bigger market of voters they will want Alesha to be the deserved winner, and I guess a girl is due to win..

Maybe I will just sit out any further bets and just hope that Alesha does the biz as I will be missing the event tomorrow, but I shall record it anyhow...

Go Alesha !!

(Shit..Do I sound camp or what...)
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  #80 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 21:21
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

Ooo get you trick. Next you'll be voting on the bloody thing

Just a watching brief from me so far, and not much of a one at that.

Alesha's problem is that being the better performer isn't always a good thing...it can simply serve to make the opponents supporters a little more keen with the voting, and your own a little more complacent. If a judge tells you you've as good as won, you'd certainly think twice about hammering away at the redial button for them.

Even worse, she doesn't even have the compensation of the judges votes counting, so she might even get that 'curse' without any of the benefit a performer would usually get.

But...

That said, she is still far far better than Matt, who there's every chance will completely mess up and this one will be over before it starts.

Sooo....prices...yeah look not far off right.

If I was gonna be backing one, I'd be swaying towards Matt, for 2 reasons:

a) he is classic reality TV fodder...young white male from a soap on the channel in question vs black female from a rap group.

b) the 'journey' factor. Alesha has been superb all series, Matt hasn't and so if Alesha puts in a stunning performance in the final, its no biggie, she's done it all before. If Matt does, he can easily play the 'underdog comes good' tag, and after last week(even though I still don't admit Leon did actually 'come good' ) the power of that is there for all to see.

Not made me mind up yet tho.
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  #81 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 21:52
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

That 6/4 for Neither Matt nor Alesha to cry is still available at Skybet Trick.

May have a small bet on that after your say so!

Sky Bet - Sports Betting - TV and Film Specials - Strictly Come Dancing Specials
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  #82 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 22:42
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

Nap - Don't do it ! Oddschecker worded it that they DON'T cry.. (it was worded on their site NEITHER to cry) Skybet are offering odds that the DO cry...!! 6/4 is no price !!
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  #83 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 22:50
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

This is why it is confusing...



"Neither Matt nor Alesha to cry...must be visible tears"

Hmmm....

What does that mean?
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  #84 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 22:52
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

Is it to cry or not....
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  #85 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 22:53
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

If I knew it was definately not to cry I'd jump in at 6/43...
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  #86 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 22:55
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

Shit - the drink is talking - I think they're saying you must see visible tears for the bet to lose...?
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  #87 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 22:56
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

Somebody with a balanced (and sober) mind to advise please...?
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  #88 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 22:56
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

To me it's worded that they don't cry.

"Neither Matt nor Alesha to cry on live final - must be visible tears"

Just actually phoned Skybet and the operator explained that it is a bet on them "not to cry" and if either of them do, i.e. there are visible tears, then the bet is a loser!
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  #89 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 23:01
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

Cheers Nap - That'll do me..

I wouldnt go mad with this bet, 'cos owt can happen..However I can just can see Alesha happy rather than emotionally overcome - surely the value is with 2.5?

Alesha or Matt not to cry after winning - 6 pt stake @ 6/4
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  #90 (permalink)  
Old 21-12-2007, 23:02
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Re: Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

Never thought I'd see the day when even I would be placing a bet on whether someone would cry or not...
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