Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

[trickrick]

Well Matt is still 4/5 with Boyles (4/7 with Hills), so maybe still chance to get on an half decent price ntil he becomes unbackable as Top Male?


I am still intrigued with the all-female finale offered by Skybet - the price is 3/1 !! A large price considering the top 2 favourites are female..

Let's have a look at the historical facts..

Strictly Come Dancing Series 1
* Natasha Kaplinsky and Brendan Cole - 1st
* Christopher Parker and Hanna Karttunen - 2nd
* Lesley Garrett and Anton du Beke - 3rd
* Martin Offiah and Erin Boag - 4th
* Claire Sweeney and John Byrnes - 5th
* Verona Joseph and Paul Killick - 6th
* David Dickinson and Camilla Dallerup - 7th
* Jason Wood and Kylie Jones - 8th

Strictly Come Dancing Series 2
* Jill Halfpenny and Darren Bennet - 1st
* Denise Lewis and Ian Waite - 2nd
* Julian Clary and Erin Boag - 3rd
* Aled Jones and Lilia Kopylova - 4th
* Roger Black and Camilla Dallerup - 5th
* Sarah Manners and Brendan Cole - 6th
* Diarmuid Gavin and Nicole Cutler - 7th
* Esther Rantzen and Anton du Beke - 8th
* Carol Vorderman and Paul Killick - 9th
* Quentin Willson and Hazel Newberry - 10th

Strictly Come Dancing Series 3
* Darren Gough and Lilia Kopylova - 1st
* Colin Jackson and Erin Boag - 2nd
* Zoe Ball and Ian Waite - 3rd
* James Martin and Camilla Dallerup - 4th
* Patsy Palmer and Anton du Beke - 5th
* Bill Turnball and Karen Hardy - 6th
* Will Thorpe and Hanna Haarala- 7th
* Dennis Taylor and Izabela Hannah - 8th
* Fiona Phillips and Brendan Cole - 9th
* Gloria Hunniford and Darren Bennet - 10th
* Jaye Jacobs and Andrew Cuerden - 11th
* Siobhan Hayes and Matthew Cutler - 12th

Strictly Come Dancing Series 4
* Mark and Karen - 1st
* Matt & Lilia - 2nd
* Emma and Darren - 3rd
* Louisa and Vincent - 4th
* Carol and Matthew - 5th
* Claire and Brendan - 6th
* Peter and Erin - 7th
* Ray and Camilla - 8th
* Jan and Anton - 9th
* Georgina and James - 10th
* Spoony and Ola - 11th
* Mica and Ian - 12th
* Jimmy and Flavia - Had to withdraw due to health reasons
* Nicolas and Nicole - 14th

Only once have the top 2 been male & female, although all - male finalists have dominated..

Of course Matt may have a big say, and after gabby went antything can happen, but it does appear that Alesha and Kelly dominate, and therefore 3/1 looks massive..

Oh man...I am tempted...!

Erm..however one thought - didnt the final of SCD 3 have 3 finalists - Darren, Colin and Zoe..If so this could be an explanation why it is 3/1...

Right..need to find out the this year's final show format..

[trickrick]

Yup....3 in the final show this time..(Last year there were 2)

3/1 doesnt look so appealing now.. I wonder how many people fell for the '2 in the final' theory and lumped on at Skybet..?

[stereoman]

LOL! Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1530: Last week the X-Factor took a back seat to Strictly Come Dancing in the controversy stakes when Gabby Logan, one of the favourites to win at 5/1, became the latest celebrity to get booted off the show. Yet the two left feet of GMTV’s Kate Garraway waltz on.

With this in mind Paddy Power are now betting on just how long Garraway will last. She's the 2/1 favourite to get the boot this weekend but it's odds on at 1/2 that she survives another week and 12/1 she goes all the way to the final.

Sharon McHugh, Paddy Power's reality TV betting expert, said: "Gabby leaving Strictly Come Dancing has thrown the betting into chaos. Our punters are now giving much more thought to the celebrities’ personalities and not just their dancing skills.

Last week's decision by the judges to choose Penny over Gabby has shaken up the betting and made things very interesting indeed."

[stereoman]

What William Hill said after last week's shock elimination of Gabby Logan at readabet.com:

Punters took a tumble this weekend after 33/1 outsider Gabby Logan was given the boot from Strictly Come Dancing, in what was the most bizarre eviction in reality TV history.

Bookies William Hill did not have a single bet on Gabby getting the boot, a 100% clean up for the bookies.

"Kate Garraway was the very well backed favourite to go but not one person expected Gabby or Penny to get the boot. Viewer like a journey and perhaps Gabby was just too good too early on," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

What William Hill are saying before this week's elimination at readabet.com:

William Hill are starting to see money for Kate Garraway and Kenny Logan to get the boot this week as punters follow the theory that after Saturday's fiasco voters will be keen to judge the contestants on their dancing ability, not their personality!

"There is bound to be a backlash after last weeks freak result and Brucie is expected to reiterate that it is a dance contest at every opportunity. If the decision is based on ability then punters are on the right track backing either Kenny or Kate to go," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.



Blue Square are one of the few bookies willing to back Kate Garraway surviving though and go a joint industry-best 5/2 on Kate being eliminated this week, and thus become one of the few bookies out there making Kenny Logan the favourite to be booted this week.

...I suppose a few gambles were landed when Kenny outlasted Gabby! Wouldn't it be odd that they were booted off the show one after the other!?

Alesha still heads the outright market. Blue Square are the industry-worst this time 'round though and fear that Alesha's going to storm this.



http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/...ing/win-market

Unlucky about the all-female final bet there. You'll most likely need Penny to get on-side with the public ahead of the likes of Matt and Gethin and that seems unlikely.

I suppose some needless aftereventing and some quick calculations meant that if the BBC put the SCD final against The X Factor final so the pair will clash on Saturday 15th December means if there's THREE for the SCD final then that there has to be a double elimination for Strictly Come Dancing as well!

[stereoman]

Money on Kate...Garraway with ya! Today's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1300: Punters are piling on Kate Garraway to get the boot from Strictly Come Dancing this weekend and Hills have shortened her price to 2/1 following a number of sizeable wagers.

"Punters are piling on the by far and away worst dancer on the show and are obviously expecting a backlash from last week's freak vote when Gabby was evicted," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

=============

Another skinner for the bookies then!? AAAIIEE!! No bet from me btw.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Slight gamble on Dominic Littlewood (5/2 from 6/1) just ahead of Kenny Logan (2/1). Kate Garraway back in third at 11/4 but more at Betfair) and John Barnes (3/1) fourth favourite to be eliminated.

Kelly Brook 14/1 (WHAT!? Another shocker on the cards!?), Penny Lancaster 18/1, Letitia Dean 28/1, Gethin Jones/Matt Di Angelo 40/1 and Alesha Dixon 50/1.

We'll soon know. Prices from Paddy Power.

[stereoman]

John and Dominic in the bottom two...Dominic's out! Money doesn't lie...this time.

[trickrick]

Call me mad, but I get the feeling that it is time for Kate to get the boot..Punters (including me) have lost money backing her to be eliminated, but time cannot now be on her time, and the braindead GMTV crowd cannot continue to save her...(5/2 anyone?)

Having said the above, I'm still hesitant to back her due to the complete unpredicatability of this elimination market..

Maybe it's best I just sit back and await my ante post bets to come in..

Aleesha to win outright - 4 pt stake @ 10/1
Kelly to win outright - 4 pt stake @ 8/1
Matt to be top Male - 9 pt stake @ 6/4

[stereoman]

Eh. I cannae be bothered too much as it's almost so random. Here are the best odds available on who'll be the sixth person eliminated though:



Kenny will be dancing the Viennese Waltz to Flower of Scotland. Good luck with that one, Kenny.

[stereoman]

Penny eliminated with Matt in the bottom two!

Some folks called it right saying Penny was 'too nice' and voters probably wouldn't vote for her as a result!

[trickrick]

And another reason why betting on the SCD elimination market is the fast track route to the poor house...

[stereoman]

Aye. Best odds for the seventh elimination though:

[trickrick]

I guess the laws of probablilty mean surely Kate is gonna go in the next couple of weeks?!?!

Nah........What's the point.... I gave up on this a while ago....The only interest I will have is when it's Grand Final Week..

[stereoman]

The usually reliable person who posts the result on Saturday night over at DS hasn't seemingly turned up. The rumour is that Kate's gone, with John in the bottom two.

Hindsight and aftereventing suggests that the Scottish vote that propelled Carol Smillie to survive all the way 'til she finished in fifth place last year is probably why Kenny is still in if that's the case (well duh).

[trickrick]

I happened to watch SCD this weekend, and had the pleasure of seeing Kate get the boot. Unfortunately I had no money on her, but as she did cause me some stress a few weeks ago, it was nice to see her go AT LAST!!

I also had the pleasure to see my 10/1 tip Alesha perform.. I aint no dance expert, but it was so obvious she is head and shoulders above the rest. How she won’t win this is beyond me. Of course I am seasoned enough to know that nothing is certain in these markets, but I am as near as damnit sure in this case..

Alesha is now best priced 4/6 with VC bet to win it.. Very short, but short odds backers I’m sure could see this as a nice 66% return on their investment for Christmas!!