Strictly Come Dancing 2007 (BBC1)

stereoman · #16 (**permalink**) 02-10-2007, 04:41

First elimination prices from William Hill:

Willie Thorne 6/4
Dom Littlewood 4/1
Brian Capron 4/1
Stephanie Beacham 5/1
Kate Garraway 6/1
Penny Lancaster 16/1
Letitia Dean 20/1
Kenny Logan 20/1
John Barnes 20/1
Matt D'Angelo 25/1
Gethin Jones 25/1
Kelly Brook 33/1
Gabby Logan 33/1
Alesha Dixon 33/1

**trickrick** · #17 (**permalink**) 03-10-2007, 10:24

Ok I said I wouldnt place another bet, but I spot an element of value here... Gabby Logan is obviously performing well in the rehersals, as indicated by his price which has fell - she is now a best price 7.5 (Bet365) and current around the 7 mark with Betfair.. However take a stroll across to Partybets, and they appear to be oblivious to any market moves ascurrently they offer 16's......

Need to take a piece of that.

I am convinced that a female will win this year and I am happy with my portfolio of Alesha, Kelly and now Gabby...

Gabby Logan to win Strictly Come Dancing - 5 pt stake @ 16.00

**trickrick** · #18 (**permalink**) 03-10-2007, 18:00

Partybets have now cut Gabby from 15/1 to 6/1..Must have been the weight of my bet that toppled the price..

stereoman · #19 (**permalink**) 05-10-2007, 13:18

Wouldn't be surprised as they are just as spineless as bwin. Surprised by how much both companies are worth though but Gamebookers is supported by Party Gaming.

Don't understand the Gabby Logan gamble myself. I approach this idea that punters think the BBC want a home win. I'll support the heck out of her if she manages to get a 10 from a judge on the first show though!

You seem to be on the ball though rick as the first three that are generally heading the market are...Gabby, Kelly and Alesha! Spooky!

The only guys that are getting a look-in are Matt D'Angelo and Gethin Jones.

A man will be eliminated first? Seems slightly unfair but that's the way the show works. Can't see anything but Willie and Dominic duking it out to be eliminated first and the judges may save Willie out of pity.

Odds from Paddy Power:

Gender of winning celebrity? Female 8/11, Male 'evens'.

Top Female
Kelly Brook 5/2
Gabby Logan 5/2
Alesha Dixon 4/1
Letitia Dean 9/2
Penny Lancaster 13/2
Kate Garraway 10/1
Stephanie Beacham 22/1

Top Male
Matt D'Angelo 11/4
Gethin Jones 11/4
John Barnes 4/1
Kenny Logan 4/1
Brian Capron 6/1
Dominic Littlewood 9/1
Willie Thorne 18/1

First elimination
Willie Thorne 6/5
Dominic Littlewood 11/4
Brian Capron 10/3
Kenny Logan 8/1
John Barnes 10/1
Gethin Jones 25/1
Matt D'Angelo 33/1

**trickrick** · #20 (**permalink**) 05-10-2007, 20:31

Originally Posted by stereoman

You seem to be on the ball though rick as the first three that are generally heading the market are...Gabby, Kelly and Alesha! Spooky!

..... Betting on Ballroom dancing..I must be in touch with my feminine side..

Well if anyone would witness my football bets alately, I'd best stick to entertainment...

Anyhoo..I'm pleasantly suprised with my picks and their current odds..It's nice to get a bit of value, even if the comp hasnt begun. Pity its not with Betfair though as there is the added manipulation of laying the odds..

As for the gamble on Gabby - I think it may just be down to the fact that she is actually showing potential? Although as of yesterday on the head to heads special bet involving Gabby against her husband Laddies were offering 5/6 the pair..

.. And by all accounts Mr Logan has 2 left feet..?

Maybe Laddies are running scared on the sportsmen record in this comp..

**trickrick** · #21 (**permalink**) 05-10-2007, 21:51

Again, insanity rules as I place a bet on the first evictee without seeing them dance a step..Having said that, sometimes looking at the lineup can give a good indication...

Lets look at the bottom 3 betting-wise - Willie Thorne, Stephanie Beecham and Dom Littlewood..

Firstly - Who are the oldest? The judges will not want to be seen as ageist when it comes to the first week.. Stephanie and Willie I reckon are the oldest..

Who is well known..? Well Stephanie is a renowned actress and Willie ermm...a mediocre snooker player, but is actually a BBC veteran and quite popular in his time...(Who can forget the snooker Saturday prime time slot programme (the name escapes me - with his 'hells kitchen' failed sidekick Jim Davidson) That leaves Dom Littlewood - Another BBC veteren presenter, but one I think is really making up the numbers... (Producers scan around the BBC Canteen to find a last minute final entry...)

Ok maybe not, but of the 3 that will probably be in the bottom 3, Dom has the best price and I'm happy to cheer his trips on the dancefloor on Saturday night..

Dom Littlewood - 1st evicted - 2 pt stake @ 9/2 (Stan James)

**trickrick** · #22 (**permalink**) 06-10-2007, 00:04

Nice to see Dom knocked down to 7/2 by StanJames... However since Stanjames still have the best price for everyone (according to oddschecker) I suppose it still could be better..

stereoman · #23 (**permalink**) 07-10-2007, 18:47

Dang it to hell. Craig voted to save Brian & Karen while the others all voted to save Kenny & Ola. Brian is the first to be eliminated.

Brian suffering from manflu didn't help.

stereoman · #24 (**permalink**) 08-10-2007, 12:04

Odds from Sky Bet with a female to be evicted in the second week:

With Kate and Stephanie suffering from injuries it'll surely be one of those two and surely STephanie's more likely to get the push between the two?

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...icle311398.ece

Could be something wrong that's affecting Letitia if she's second favourite to be eliminated.

**trickrick** · #25 (**permalink**) 09-10-2007, 22:15

Kicking myself I didnt take the 1.96 that was on offer for a female victory...

Currently the price bestpriced 4/7 (Stan James) - Paddy go 2/5

Well it appears a 2-way battle for elimination between Stephanie and Kate - both circa 6/4, which means a...erm....

...1.25 shot if you back the pair... ?

My 2 pt elimination bet on Dom backfired pretty badly, and he now he has danced he actually appears to be a lively outsider for the top male (4/1) - bit of a novelty act, but the camp shaven-headed hard man look may have it's appeal...

stereoman · #26 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 06:00

Hmmm. I can only imagine that Kate's injury is fairly serious then and that's formed the gamble on her to be eliminated this week (Sky Bet have suspended their elimination odds for the moment probably as a result).

Will the judges keep Kate due to GMTV connections or will that hinder her?

How terrible will Stephanie have to be to keep Kate in!?

**trickrick** · #27 (**permalink**) 11-10-2007, 21:23

Well according to the BBC2 extra programme on Wednesday, Gabby's programme could be a bit special. She's doing the quick step and is looookin good..Apparently her partner (a pro!) has lost a stone already training wth her... Currently her best price is 9/2 with Bluesq, and just a smidgeon behind the favourite - Alesha..

stereoman · #28 (**permalink**) 12-10-2007, 08:10

Apparently my bet for someone to score a 10 is still live and wasn't done in by just the men performing last week. Fair play to Boyle Sports if that's the case as I'd have settled the bet as a loss on semantics...I can only assume someone else also placed the same bet and argued the toss that it wasn't fair that not everybody danced.

...either that or they simply haven't settled the bet as a loser.

I can only hope that Alesha, Gabby and/or Kelly absolutely storm the place and find a judge that goes way, way over-the-top in their praise.

On the other side of the coin, Stephanie goes back into slight favouritism ahead of Kate to be eliminated. Ugh. I dunno who to pick of the two.

**trickrick** · #29 (**permalink**) 12-10-2007, 12:09

Interesting bet this...Skybet are offering 2/1 for an All-Female Final.. Now it appears to be evident that the females are much stronger than the males and looking at the betting market with the top 3 girls ahead of any male, then this 2/1 looks a decent price..Doesnt it...

...?

I guess this will be another case of a bet I've considered and not gone with (such as a female winner at 1.96, Gabby to beat Kenny 5/6...The list goes on...

)

**trickrick** · #30 (**permalink**) 13-10-2007, 17:44

Well I've taken on the legion of GMTV fans, but after her first slip, I took Kate at 6 point stake to be eliminated at 2.07 (betfair)...in-running

I am scared of the sympathy vote though, cos a lot will want to give her a chance 'fully fit'...