The X Factor 2007

[stereoman]

Be afraid...be very afraid. Today's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1615: X Factor returns tomorrow night with Louis taking his usual place on the judging panel alongside Simon Cowell, Sharon Osbourne and new judge Danni Minogue, and already Paddy Power have made this year's unknown winner the red hot favourite at 6/5 to have this year's UK Christmas No.1!

The Spice Gils are thought to be secretly working on a new Xmas single. If rumours are true it will be Simon Cowell versus Simon Fuller this Christmas as the 2007 X Factor winner battles it out for the top spot in the charts alongside The Spice Girls.

Aussie singer Danni Minogue is allegedly mentoring the 14-24 year olds but it's not clear whether it's the male or female group she'll have. Paddy Power are betting the winner of this year's X Factor will come from one of these younger groups and are offering odds as short as 7/4.

Those hoping for a bit of drama can have 4/1 that Louis quits the show, while it's 6/1 that Sharon Osbourne throws a glass of water over Louis again!

Sharon McHugh, spokesperson for Paddy Power said: "The pressure will be on Cowell to find an act that can compete in the charts with one of the most successful girl bands the world has ever seen.

"Cowell and Fuller are no strangers to each other and have had their fair share of disputes in the past. It will be a personal victory for whoever snatches the top spot on the Charts this Xmas!"

[Beanie]

The X Factor just have to change the profile of the winner IMO...another along the lines of Leona/Shayne, as good as they may be vocally, heads down a bit of a dead end. It feeds the public so much of that particular person that after 12 weeks they are saturated in terms of coverage, and the shine/star quality is lost.

I thought they might do it last series with Eton Road, but surely this year the only new route they have is a group winner...otherwise it'll be same old same old.

[trickrick]

So am I right in saying there are 4 catagories this year; young 'un's, old 'uns, male groups and female groups..?

[stereoman]

There's probably a few out there who do know what the format is but I'm not saying I do though.

* The official website looks to give nothing away at the moment. The X Factor Official Website
* Digital Spy doesn't seem to mention anything on it's page or it's forums. The X Factor - Digital Spy The X Factor - Digital Spy Forums
* The Sun seems to know bugger all but is pretending it does as per usual. The Sun X Factor website
* Wikipedia entry is there you want it. The X Factor UK and Ireland series 4 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[stereoman]

Eh. I'm not looking clearly enough. Paddy's are on the ball:

* 14-24 female
* 14-24 male
* 25 and over
* Groups

It's only which judge is supposed to mentor which group that's inconclusive.

Let's start with a bit of a bang...X Factor traditionally has good ratings but what will it get for it's first show?



*X Factor 2007 Ratings Thread* - Digital Spy Forums

Paddy's though have a conservative estimate probably based on last week's viewing figures where ITV1 got 3.8 million in a similar timeslot with the final of Baby Ballroom.

Media registration promo | Media | MediaGuardian.co.uk

I'm convinced there'll be a ratings spike because of the amount of ramping done by ITV and various media outlets (mind you, until I read that bit in Bettingzone any hype of X factor completely passed me by) and that the average TV ratings willl easily go above 5 million between 7:40pm-8:40pm and at 7/1 that's seemingly very generous. Who the hell's gonna be watching Dance X?

Paddy's are allowing me a maximum of £20.24 so it's hardly too much of a gamble if I'm completely wrong.

It'll be interesting to note in what way The X Factor producers will sting Paddy's as to which theme week they'll do first!

[stereoman]

Looks like I won the bet with ease.

BBC NEWS | Entertainment | X Factor debuts with 9.5m viewers

[Beanie]

Nice touch stereo - good start to the series!

[stereoman]

Themed weeks to possibly include Celine Dion, Elton John, Jennifer Lopez, Kylie Minogue, Take That and Westlife.

The Sun Online - X Factor: X marks the bot for curvy J-Lo

[stereoman]

Simon wants a group to win this year!?

The X Factor - News - Cowell wants Hope to win 'X Factor'? - Digital Spy

Very annoyed I didn't latch onto Bet Direct's special about which manager or managers wouldn't have an act in the final three and with all this 'Sharon Osbourne will quit after this year' bollocks I should have woken up and lumped on at the 12/5 over there onj Sharon Osbourne being shafted and left in the lurch.

At this stage it looks good but who knows whether I'd have been waiting three months and been onto a right loser?

[Beanie]

Groups bet still looks a good one to me - not sure I can take it since I can't watch the shows at the mo and dont know what the potential acts are, but with Cowell in charge and no previous group winner I think we will see them being ramped like crazy by the producers.

14-25 women were always gonna struggle after Leonna, over 25s have no appeal to producers and limited appeal to public...this does look a straight 14-25 Male v Groups face off, and while the former should always be favs in such a situation, all the other factors make this one look not too far off even.

Cowell always plays a clever game when it comes to voting people off and choosing his comments carefully, and I would hate to be sitting with a bet on someone else while Cowell + the producers put all their powers into engineering a groups victory.

That's my take anyway, just depends if they have the necessary fodder.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Punters seem to agree. Yesterday's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1745: Sky Bet has installed Dannii Minogue, the newcomer to this year's judging panel, as the 7/4 favourite to become the winning manager of X-Factor 2007.

Minogue will be mentoring the 'boys' section and if the bookie is right, the new judge will capture the managers' limelight on her debut appearance.

Simon Cowell, who has taken both Steve Brookstein and Leona Lewis to X-Factor glory, is a 2/1 shot but this year faces a tough job with the groups. Sharon Osbourne, the only original judge yet to produce a winner, is 3/1 to guide the girls to victory. Louis Walsh is 4/1 to get a victory for the over-25s.

Helen Jacob, Sky Bet's entertainment manager, said: "Previous results of the show reflect that the public favour the younger solo acts.

"If this trend continues then Danni Minogue is in a great position after taking thereins of the 'boys' section. However with all the current hype surrounding the bands, Simon could lead the first-ever 'group' to X-Factor glory!"

[trickrick]

Well hats off to Paddypower... Quickly off the mark with the odds for the final 12...

Futureproof 4 - 1 Daniel De Bourg 8 - 1 Rhydian Roberts 12 - 1
Leon Jackson 5 - 1 Emily Nakanda 8 - 1 Beverley Trottman 16 - 1
Andy Williams 5 - 1 Alisha Bennett 10 - 1 Niki Evans 18 - 1
Hope 6 - 1 Kimberley Southwick 12 - 1 Same Difference 20 - 1

Not paidenough attention to be able to steal some value though...

[trickrick]

Well Daniel is all the rage - currently around the 4/1 mark and favourite. Not convinced though to be honest and a definate side-swerve at this stage.. I'd rather be siding with Andy Williams as the hearthrob singer at 13/2 if I had the choice..

The other ones that appeal to me at the moment pricewise are Beverley Trottman currently 10's, and Alisha Bennett at 18's..

The groups won't win as far as I can see..

However I aint having a bet on the outright yet until I revisit the singing..

As for elimination - well Same Diffenece and Rhydian are the favourites...! NO WAY will either go in the first week..They have too much viewing value to offload straight away.. Both will be the contestants you love to hate (witness those Scottish Brothers last year)..To be honest Rhydian could well be a suprise package that goes a long way..

Surely Niki Evans is the favourite to go..? I am slightly worried about the fact that she has a recently deceased dad and the impact this might have on the viewers, but she lacks presense, personality and a better voice, and therefore I reckon she could go..

Niki Evans to be first eliminated - 2 pt stake @ 5/1 (Paddypower)

[trickrick]

Well I've placed some tentative early 'interest' bets on the winner.. (All with Betfair)

Alisha Bennett - 2 pt stake @ 16.0
Alisha has a nice voice for the young 'un's and has a distinct look as well. I like her the best of all the 14 -24's, and I reckon she could have a good run. We are now post 'blacks don't win reality programmes' attitude and a black singer is due to do well in this show so go Alisha!!

Beverley Trotman - 2 pt stake @ 11.5
Another black singer with a great voice. This time in the over 24's.. She has the added benefit of having a good story, and being a teacher I'm sure will help pull in the votes..

Andy Williams - 2 pt stake @ 8.2
Everyone seems to rave about Daniel de wotshisname, but I reckon of the 'heartthrob males' this guy is potentially got the best potential. good looking and unassuming - qualities that go far in this comp..

[stereoman]

Today's Bettingzone Market Moves:

1420: The X-Factor's final 12 will take to the stage on Saturday for the first live show of the series and Sky Bet has cut the odds of brother and sister duo Same Difference from 4/1 to 11/4 to be the first act eliminated.

Welsh singer Rhydian Roberts is 7/2 to be the first to get the boot.

The 18-year-old Leon is the 4/1 favourite for X-Factor glory but he faces tough competition from single dad Daniel DeBourg (9/2) and boyband Futureproof (5/1).

Helen Jacob, Sky Bet entertainment manager, said: "Described as a poor man’s H and Claire from Steps, 'Same Difference' are going to struggle to win the public vote and Sky Bet customers have rushed to back the siblings for an early exit.”

X-Factor's live shows are notoriously emotional for all the contestants as they battle their way towards their dream of pop stardom. Contestants have broken down so regularly that Sky Bet are offering just even money that a contestant will shed a tear during Saturday’s first live show.

However it is not just the contestants that are moved to tears as the judges have been known to turn on the taps and it’s 5/1 for any of the panel to cry on Saturday.

Click here for our exclusive preview of the X-Factor.