Mercury Music Prize 2007

[stereoman]

Nominees have been announced:

* Arctic Monkeys' Favourite Worst Nightmare
* Basquiat Strings featuring Seb Rochford's Basquiat Strings
* Bat for Lashes' Fur & Gold
* Dizzee Rascal's Maths & English
* Jamie T's Panic Prevention
* Klaxons' Myths of the Near Future
* Maps' We Can Create
* New Young Pony Club's Fantastic Playroom
* Fionn Regan's The End of History
* The View's Hats Off to the Buskers
* Amy Winehouse's Back to Black
* The Young Knives' Voices of Animals and Men

General reaction appears to be "Predictable" and "Surely Arctic Monkeys can't win again!?"

I think the dastardly Arctic Monkeys can.

Odds from William Hill:

Arctic Monkeys 4/1
Amy Winehouse 4/1
The View 8/1
Klaxons 8/1
Jamie T 8/1
Dizzee Rascal 8/1
The Young Knives 10/1
Fionn Regan 10/1
Bat For Lashes 10/1
New Young Pony Club 12/1
Maps 12/1
Basquiat Strings 12/1

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Today's Bettingzone Market Moves...

1350: Sky Bet have installed Amy Winehouse's 'Back to Black' as their 11/4 favourite to win this year's Nationwide Mercury Prize for music.

The award is made for the best album of the year by British or Irish artists.

So far this year, Winehouse has already been named as best female at the Brit awards and won an Ivor Novello award for best contemporary song.

William Hill make Winehouse and last year's winners Arctic Monkeys their joint favourites at 4/1.

The Sheffield band - 5/1 with Sky Bet - are nominated for the second year running, this time for their second album, 'Favourite Worst Nightmare'.

Hill's were stung to the tune of £50,000 when the Monkeys won in 2006 and are keen to keep them on side this time around despite the fact that no act has ever won the prize twice, never mind in consecutive years.

"After last year's losses we are hoping for the judges to choose a rank outsider, which has been known to happen in the past, but there are obvious favourites in the Arctic Monkeys and Amy Winehouse," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams, who added that early industry money had come in for Bat For Lashes' 'Fur And Gold'.

Another former winner, rapper Dizzee Rascal, who won the prize in 2003, is also among the 12 nominees and can be backed at 10/1 (Sky Bet).

Sky Bet's Helen Jacob said: "It's a tough shortlist and Klaxons and Jamie T's highly original albums could come close, but Amy Winehouse's Back To Black is in a class of its own and we think it just has the edge."

The winner will be announced on September 4.

[trickrick]

Without claiming to be any kind of expert on thsi, am I right in saying that a rank outsider tends to claim this prize?

[pydoom]

Well, seeing as I've been managing a record/cd store for over a decade I should have some kind of useful input to make to this - well basically over the years if I don't bet I pick the winner and if I put money down I lose

Enough history and onto this year. I think you can safely narrow this list down quite a bit.

I am taking these out of consideration: -

Basquiat Strings 12/1 - token classical entry; one year a classical type act will will, but not this year and those odds seem pretty tight

The View 8/1 - slightly too popular and critically slightly too lightweight

Amy Winehouse 4/1 - would definitely deserve it, but is probably too popular now and the price is far too short

Dizzee Rascal 8/1 - I would be stunned if he won having already won and just not really making any great progress

Arctic Monkeys 4/1 - Just cannot see them winning back-to-back. Quite frankly if either them or Mr. Rascal win then I really cannot see the point of the Mercury Prize anymore - although M People did win in 1994 so anything is possible I guess.
Price is way too short as well considering no-one has ever one the award twice, let alone back to back. The bookies are just running scared after last year.

The Young Knives 10/1 - No real reason why they can't win, just can't see it happening.


So, this leaves me a shortlist of: -

Klaxons 8/1
Jamie T 8/1
Fionn Regan 10/1
Bat For Lashes 10/1
New Young Pony Club 12/1
Maps 12/1

I am wary of 'industry money' going on Bat For Lashes because at this early stage it is often just wishful thinking rather than any real inside knowledge.

I guess I would favour The Klaxons at the moment, especially as there has not been a dance-orientated winner since the Diz in 2003. Although, with the current trend of acoustic/nu-folk...whatever-you-wanna-call-it they could well go for Fionn Regan.

So, in summary Basquiat Strings will fucking win

If I hear anything of interest I will post it up, but most of the reps I speak too have a frankly appalling track record in tipping so I do not give too much weight to their opinions.

[jbgb007uk]

I have a feeling for New Young Pony Club and the price is a fair one... but I for one would love the Klaxons to win this.

[stereoman]

Most if not all the money's gone on Amy Winehouse and Bat for Lashes. Fook it. I've given up. The sting's probably already landed with one of those two winning.

Last year the industry money was on Richard Hawley and the Guillemots. The public gamble was on Arctic Monkeys.

Yesterday's Bettingzone Market Moves...

1530: Amy Winehouse has been backed in from 11/4 to 11/5 to win the Nationwide Mercury Music Prize.

Sky Bet have reported early money for Winehouse's Back To Black album following the announcement of the nominations yesterday.

However, there is little interest in the Arctic Monkeys, last year's winners.

No artist has ever won the prize twice and Sky Bet have pushed the Sheffield band out from 5/1 to 8/1.

Bat For Lashes, popular with music critics for their album Fur And Gold, are in from 9/1 to 15/2.

Sky Bet's entertainment manager Helen Jacob said: "Amy is clearly the people's favourite to win, but this doesn't mean the judging panel will agree and, with a mainstream winner last year in Arctic Monkeys, they might plump for a lesser-known act this time round. The question is; if Amy does win, will she make it to the ceremony?"

That last comment points towards Sky Bet's special which makes Winehouse, who has cancelled several gigs this year, 5/1 not to appear at the Mercury ceremony on September 4.

[slick]

I'd say Amy Winehouse myself, Back to black is a superb album and huge both sides of the Atlantic.

She may not turn up on the day but if the voting is not organised by the BBC then she's in with a great chance of the accolaide as theres nobody on that list who can touch her apart from the Artic Monkeys popularity.

[kompressaur]

I've only heard of the top two in the betting I remember telling my dad when i was about 10 'I WILL ALWAYS WATCH TOP OF THE POPS!' whilst watching Gary Numan perform 'We Are Glass' on it. How little did i know.

[pydoom]

Been hearing from some of the reps I talk too that it is being seen as a straight fight between jamie t & bat for lashes with amy winehouse just being too obvious this year - then again some of them tried telling me that about the monkeys last year

Both acts are actually signed to the same label (Emi), so unlikely to be record company 'pressure', but bat for lashes has only recently gone over to emi and is probably more likely to benefit in sales from winning - not that any of these thoughts ever come into consideration

[milners]

The good thing about the Mercury Music Prize is thats its not about the record label or sales and its about the quality which in a commerical world doesn't always see the most sales. You normally don't get a bland band that wins the Mercuty Music Prize although very surprised that arctic monkeys won last year as i find there album average at best. This years nominations mmm I got Bat for Lashes album - pretty good but nothing major special, Dizze Rascal's album isn't that bad either, only just purchased Fionn Regan's album and not really getting into it that much. Others i've got is Klaxons and New Young Pony Club's certain songs. One thing i think that the bland The View's hasn't got a chance and is what i will maybe lay - if they win it then i've never respect the Mercury Music Prize again.

[trickrick]

Heck after her 3 day orgy of drink, drugs and horse tranquilizer, I've gotta go for Winehouse...It's a sign !!!

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Bat for Lashes into joint-favouritism with Amy Winehouse at 5/2 over at William Hill. Jamie T is effectively the stalking horse and if I didn't know any better (and I don't) is that he's got his fair share of supporters.

I will be surprised if there is any other gamble on anybody other than those three but there's plenty of time between now and Tuesday 4th September for an upset.

Ladbrokes had an interesting special where Amy Winehouse was quoted at odds of a paltry 'evens' (from an opening quote of 8/1!) not to turn up to the ceremony which has since been pulled.

Comment is free: Emotional carrion

Red herring in that Amy won't win? I think Island Records see Amy Winehouse as their biggest chance to crack the Grammy awards bolstered by a Mercury Music Prize win but she's effectively buggered up her chances with all this drugs/drink/rehab nonsense she's going through. She may get nominated but she won't win (a win last year didn't help the Arctic Monkeys too much).

[stereoman]

I didn't realise that William Hill were still offering 2/1 that Amy Winehouse would NOT be turning up on Tuesday night....looks like a ton o' well-timed bets are going to pull through just on her not to turn to the ceremony (5/1 at Skybet!? 8/1 at Ladbrokes!? 2/1 at WIlliam Hill!? Fecking 'ell...where the hell was I when these bets werre available!?) as Amy isn't bothering to go to Las Vegas in two weeks time for the MTV Video Music Awards either.

readaBet.com - NATIONWIDE MERCURY AWARDS: PRIZE - AMY WINEHOUSE
BBC NEWS | Entertainment | Winehouse scraps MTV appearance

I'm going to be very annoyed if Bat For Lashes wins because I didn't get on at the 16/1 over at Ladbrokes very early on. Paddy's make Amy the favourite, William Hill make Bat for Lashes the favourite.

[stereoman]

Less than 36 hours to go and most bookies have gotten rid of their odds in case they kept swamped by insider betting. Only Betfair, Ladbrokes, Paddy's and Skybet seem to be in business.









Skybet has seen somebody nipping at their 9/4 for Bat For Lashes this morning and they've gone 15/8 as a result. Paddy's have reintroduced the market and have reduced Bat For Lashes into 7/4 favourite!

Looking at the odds it seems Klaxons, Maps and Fionn Regan are perhaps likeliest to be supported to stop Amy Winehouse, Bat For Lashes or Jamie T winning.

[stereoman]

I suppose it's a good thing not knowing where the hell I was when those 'Amy not to turn up' odds were issued as it looks like Amy's back from her holiday and WILL be at tonight's awards ceremony.

I think it's gonna launch a huge late betting frenzy on Amy Winehouse to win.