Rugby Union Tri Nations 2011

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starts this weekend ,
with it being world cup year it will not have the same intensity as other years

here are the odds

Tri Nations 2011
New Zealand 1.44
Australia 3.75
South Africa 7.50


the opening match odds
Australia 1.28 Draw 21.00 South Africa 3.50

the handicap odds
Australia -8 1.91 Tie 17.00 South Africa +8 1.91

Australia lost to Samoa last week but South Africa have sent a weakened side with a few up and coming youngsters.

I think that Australia will win but overcoming the handicap will be more difficult and also dependent upon the weather conditions , so I'll await to see the conditions before the bet

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last week's result
Saturday, 23 July 2011
Australia 39-20 South Africa

Australia easily overcoming the cap of 8 points

this weekend odds from paddies

Match Betting
New Zealand 1.07 Draw 34.00 South Africa 8.00

hcap odds
New Zealand (-17.0) 1.90 Handicap Draw (-17.0) 26.00 South Africa (+17.0) 1.90

I was expecting an handicap of about 27 for this one with South Africa still using a "second string" with a few injuries from last weekend.
I hope the All Blacks will put their strongest team out , they are not a side to ease off so I can see this handicap being beaten .
One negative is the forecast of rain for the match, but that could change .
I have already placed my bet on New Zealand -17 with bet365 , as it difficult to see this handicap remaining.

Any opinions would be appreciated

p.s. this match will be shown on Saturday 8:35 a.m. , that's an early start for me on a weekend

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last year's result shows how the All Blacks beat the Springbox when S.A. were a stronger side
2010 Tri Nations Results
Match One..New Zealand 32 (20) South Africa 12 (3)

Match Two...New Zealand 31 (13) South Africa 17 (7)

Match Three...Australia 30 (17) South Africa 13 (3)

Match Four...Australia 28 (14) New Zealand 49 (32)

Match Five...New Zealand (17) 20 Australia (10) 10

Match Six...South Africa (16) 22 New Zealand (14) 29

Match Seven...South Africa (24) 44 Australia (28) 31

Match Eight...South Africa (13) 39 Australia (31) 41

Match Nine... Australia (14) 22 New Zealand (6) 23

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TEAMS:
New Zealand: 1. Wyatt Crockett, 2. Andrew Hore, 3. Ben Franks, 4. Sam Whitelock, 5. Ali Williams, 6. Jerome Kaino, 7. Richie McCaw, 8. Adam Thomson, 9. Jimmy Cowan, 10. Daniel Carter, 11. Zac Guildford, 12. Ma'a Nonu, 13. Conrad Smith, 14. Cory Jane, 15. Mils Muliaina
Reserves: 16. Corey Flynn, 17. John Afoa, 18. Jarrad Hoeata, 19. Liam Messam, 20. Piri Weepu, 21. Colin Slade, 22. Sonny Bill Williams.

South Africa: 1.Dean Greyling, 2.John Smit (captain), 3.Werner Kruger, 4.Gerhard Mostert, 5.Alistair Hargreaves, 6.Deon Stegmann, 7.Jean Deysel, 8.Danie Rossouw, 9.Ruan Pienaar, 10.Morne Steyn, 11.Lwazi Mvovo, 12.Juan de Jongh, 13.Adi Jacobs, 14.Bjorn Basson, 15.Patrick Lambie.

Reserves: 16.Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17.CJ van der Linde, 18.Ryan Kankowski, 19.Ashley Johnson, 20.Charl McLeod, 21.Wynand Olivier, 22.Odwa Ndungane.

REFEREE: Alain Rolland

the latest weather forecast is fine and dry

my opinion: New Zealand have the best backrow
New Zealand 9/10 combination is much better with the kicking of Carter being outstanding
the only weakness in the New Zealand backs is Guildford on the wing , while the others would get into any international side, whilst South Africa's backs are second choice
The New Zealand front row is much superior and S.A. have got Smit for his leadership ability for this match as his recent form has not been good. The scrum will all depend on how Rolland refs it , I'm hoping that he will be firm and penalise the infingements heavily and we can see a dominant N.Z. pack.

I'm hoping that my bias towards the Allblacks is not colouring my post as I've already placed my bet

[traeth]

New Zealand 40-7 South Africa

easily over the handicap , even with Carter failing on numerous conversion kicks

New Zealand v Australia next week