Rugby Union Autumn Internationals

[traeth]

these odds from paddies

the cap
6th Nov 2010
14:30 England (+12.0) 1.90 v New Zealand (-12.0) 1.90 draw (12.0) 26.00
14:30 Wales (+7.0) 1.90 v Australia (-7.0) 1.90 draw (7.0) 23.00
17:30 Ireland (Scr) 1.90 v South Africa (Scr) 1.90 draw (Scr) 21.00

outright bets
14:30 England 4.50 v New Zealand 1.14 draw 26.00
14:30 Wales 3.10 v Australia 1.33 draw 23.00
17:30 Ireland 1.90 v South Africa 1.90 draw 21.00

last weekend saw Australia beat the All Blacks with a last minute conversion in Hong Kong
both sides played some great rugby and if they perform like they did last Saturday I can see the beating the cap . I do not like to go against the positive handicap for the home side .
South Africa with a scratch cap is worth considering.
I'll hang fire on my selection until nearer the weekend

[slick]

I was just about to say that looks a decent price for the Aussies, I don't follow union much but do like the Internationals, The last time I watched the Aussies a few months back against the All Blacks, hold on it might have been England, I can't quite remember, they looked solid as a rock with Quade Cooper i think his name is really catching the eye, I've seen him a few times since and he really does look top notch at fly half.
I don't know enough about Union to cast a honest opinion and the Aussies did seem to struggle in the Tri nations but the Aussies against any Brit side is usually worth a punt.

Same too with the All blacks, if they play like they did in the Tri Nations then England could be embarassed here.

[traeth]

England had some decent results on tour in the summer

Australia Tour 2010
Wednesday, 23 June 2010
New Zealand Maori 35 - 28 ENGLAND

Saturday, 19 June 2010
AUSTRALIA 20 - 21 ENGLAND

Tuesday, 15 June 2010
Australian Barbarians 9 - 15 ENGLAND

Saturday, 12 June 2010
AUSTRALIA 27 - 17 ENGLAND

Tuesday, 08 June 2010
Australian Barbarians 28 - 28 ENGLAND

these were the Aussie warm up for the tri nations , they have definely improved from the performances in June .Wales do have some important players missing , especially in the backrow , I was impressed with Pocock and Elsom in Australia's backrow on Saturday. Quade Cooper played well offensively but he is a bit suspect in defence.
The cap has now been raised to Ausssie -8 or -9

[Pie-chucker]

Was at the game last Saturday - good stuff. ABs ahead by 12 when Carter went off. They wont be giving him the hook quite so soon tomorrow!

Too early for this perhaps promising England side to be coming up against the power and precision of NZ. England will try to get the rolling maul going as NZ and Aus don't seem to bother with it, unfamiliar. NZ to run in 3 tries and win it by 15 points.

22 pts NZ -11 @ 10/11 (lads)
2 pts Ma'A Nonu first try @ 14/1 (coral)

Ireland may just have the edge on a far from cohesive Boks side at home.

8 pts Ireland by 1-10 points @ 13/8 (lads).

Spread about right in Cardiff. In the rain Wales (however depleted) may just about stay with Aus. Maybe. Hard to call.

2 pts Adam Ashley-Cooper first try @ 14-1

[traeth]

this weekend results

Wales 16 - 25 Australia ...Aussies by 9pts
England 16 - 26 New Zealand ...All Blacks by 10 pts
Ireland 21 - 23 South Africa ...Springbox by 2 pts

the three home nations should have done better and were a bit "rusty" , commiting silly errors

the capper did well this weekend , hope we get better value next week , I would be backing Wales and England if either gets a cap of 10 pts

the fixtures for next saturday

Saturday, 13 November 2010
England v Australia, 14:30
Ireland v Samoa, 14:30
Scotland v New Zealand, 17:15
Wales v South Africa, 14:30

[traeth]

here are the odds and caps from bet365

13 Nov 14:30 England +2.0 10/11 5/4 Australia -2.0 10/11 8/13 Tie 16/1 18/1
13 Nov 14:30 Wales +6.0 10/11 11/5 South Africa -6.0 10/11 4/11 Tie 16/1 22/1
13 Nov 17:15 Scotland +18.0 10/11 9/1 New Zealand -18.0 10/11 1/25 Tie 16/1 40/1

I got the cap wrong , they look a bit stingy to me

I may even go for a straight Welsh win , I must be wearing those red blinkers

[Pie-chucker]

The metronomic kicking of Morne Steyne would probably put me off the straight Wales win, Traeth, but the +6 looks generous. Dodgy weather around, hope Wales go the roof closed option.

[Pie-chucker]

- 34 points

Week 1. Lost money and couldn't watch it. Not one single game on TV here in Hong Kong. Nor this Saturday. Bloody hopeless.

The most interesting betting game on Saturday, I reckon, is in Dublin. Weather there dry which brings Samoa right into the equation. Bookies have written the Islanders off giving them a 20 point start and I can't see why. The rump of their team play in Europe, the scrum's solid and they have a backline influenced by Sevens skills, at which Samoa are currently highest ranked side. Ireland are on the slide, have lost the last six games on the trot and have made 10 changes for this.

The best way in maybe thru the HT handicap (+9) as Ireland likely to go the distance better.

25 pts Samoa HT +9 @ evens
2 pts HT/FT Samoa/Ireland @ 9-1
2 pts Samoa try as first scoring play @ 11-1

Having shoved those eggs into one basket, my only other punt is to go with Aussies getting off to their usual fast start, as they did against Wales; and were 12-0 up against the ABs in Hong Kong before the Blacks woke up.

10pts Australia HT -1 @ evens

On the others I'll take a (not) watching brief. Handicaps about right.

[traeth]

Followed you on the samoa +10 at ht , thanks mate

could not get on saturday morning to post this . Tuilagi saved us with a good try half way through the first half

[Pie-chucker]

- 23 points

Just one bet for me this w/e, once again taking on Ireland who really are misfiring at the moment. ABs put out their strongest XV again (minus Brad Thorn, out for a week with hamstring) and this should be a cakewalk.

33 pts NZ (-14) @ 10/11

[traeth]

hi pie , have you got any chance of watching wales in H.K.?
ready for the welsh match , starting in a few minutes , Wales -20 is too much of a cap for me , Fiji in Wales' world cup group so we need a confidence booster.
I'm in agreement with you on the New Zealand cap , so I've followed you again ,

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

- 23 points

Just one bet for me this w/e, once again taking on Ireland who really are misfiring at the moment. ABs put out their strongest XV again (minus Brad Thorn, out for a week with hamstring) and this should be a cakewalk.

33 pts NZ (-14) @ 10/11

cheers for that one pie , TMO helped out on that irish "try" , took a fair bit of time though , i was worried for a bit

[Pie-chucker]

Yeah, the Blacks took some time to get daylight on the scoreboard.

Saturday , November 27
1. Italy vs Fiji	15:00
2. England vs South Africa	14:30
3. Scotland vs Samoa	14:30
4. Wales vs New Zealand	17:15
5. France vs Australia	20:45
Sunday , November 28
6.Ireland vs Argentina	14:30

Will try for the accumulator this week. Early, brief thoughts on these match-ups.

1. Fiji looked well-coached and have pretty much their strongest side out for these games. Stayed with Wales. A big chance in Italy.

2. Close. Expect cards. Twickenham should get England home by 7.

3. Scotland played very effective rugby on Saturday. It's their boot against Samoa belief, organisation and flair. Latter wins.

4. Kiwi steam-roller, again. Brad Thorn back. Odd that no AB backline try v Ireland.

5. On Saturday, no try from France or Argies in grim conditions. From memory, Aussie has a top recent record v Frogs in Paris. Away win.

6. Ireland improved on Saturday but have big injury problems post-match. Argies to steal this one in front of a grumpy 30,000 in Dublin.

5-1 to SH in my book. Let's see what the camel coats say.

[traeth]

here are the odds and caps for this saturday and sunday from bet365

27 Nov 14:00 Italy 1.53 Fiji 2.62 Tie 19.00
27 Nov 14:30 England 1.44 South Africa 2.87 Tie 21.00
27 Nov 14:30 Scotland 1.33 Samoa 3.50 Tie 23.00
27 Nov 17:15 Wales 11.00 New Zealand 1.03 Tie 51.00
27 Nov 19:45 France 1.80 Australia 2.00 Tie 19.00
28 Nov 14:30 Ireland 1.33 Argentina 3.50 Tie 23.00

the caps
Italy -4.0 1.90 Fiji +4.0 1.90 Tie 17.00
England -5.0 1.90 South Africa +5.0 1.90 Tie 17.00
Scotland -8.0 1.90 Samoa +8.0 1.90 Tie 17.00
Wales +19.0 1.90 New Zealand -19.0 1.90 Tie 17.00
France -1.0 1.90 Australia +1.0 1.90 Tie 17.00

Ireland -8.0 1.90 Argentina +8.0 1.90 Tie 17.00 23.00

[Pie-chucker]

the caps
Italy -4.0 1.90 Fiji +4.0 FIJI
England -5.0 1.90 South Africa +5.0 ENGLAND
Scotland -8.0 1.90 Samoa +8.0 SAMOA
Wales +19.0 1.90 New Zealand -19.0 WALES
France -1.0 1.90 Australia +1.0 AUS
Ireland -8.0 1.90 Argentina +8.0 ARGIES

2 quid on that accumulator (all 10/11) wins you close to 100 quid.

The one I don't like is AUS in Paris. As in not sure.

FIJI and SAMOA best for double, maybe

Sorry for lack of forensic analysis.

Good luck!