Tri Nations Rugby Union

[redroar]

I'm surprised that SA are'nt fav's. Were NZ that impressive against Oz? They certainly were'nt the first two times against SA.

The loss of Botha is huge. Du Preez back is a plus and I cant see Cowan playing well twice in a row so I have SA having a big advantage at scrummie.

Its in Newlands and rain is forecasted which will suit the kiwi's.

Had a poo tri nations so far so I'm determined to get this one right.

[traeth]

the All Blacks squad from rugbyheaven.co.nz

NEW ZEALAND: 15 Mils Muliania, 14 Richard Kahui, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock. Reserves: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Afoa, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Adam Thompson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Isaia Toeava

the same starting 15 as last game
the last time these two met McCaw was injured , Thorn suspended and scrum half Cowan was on the bench , McCaw and Thorn will be a big difference

[Pie-chucker]

Paddy's have Blacks as 3 point favourites.

They go 22-1 the match draw. Bloody draw bet often looks so do-able in this sort of thing but never pays.

Yeah, I thought they'd put up Saffers - 3 not + 3.

Anyone have recent Newlands results? Suppose it's not that much of a hurdle for visiting sides.

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

Paddy's have Blacks as 3 point favourites.

They go 22-1 the match draw. Bloody draw bet often looks so do-able in this sort of thing but never pays.

Yeah, I thought they'd put up Saffers - 3 not + 3.

Anyone have recent Newlands results? Suppose it's not that much of a hurdle for visiting sides.

Not anymore

Hope you took some while you could pie

[Pie-chucker]

My fault. mis-read it. Home team are 3 point favourites, not underdogs.

Kiwis are favourites only on NZ tab. Whadda surprise!

[Pie-chucker]

- 7 so far

I usually have a strong (often wrong) opinion on international rugby but picking the winner here, let alone a handicap winner, is bloody tough.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it close out at 25-25. That score seems 'right' to me. Not piling into this one; and leaving spreads alone.

3pts DRAW @ 25-1
3pts Handicap draw (SA -3) @ 20-1
18pts total score OVER 41.5 @ 5/6
1pt first score of match: drop goal SA @ 33-1
1pt ditto: drop goal NZ @ 33-1

[traeth]

like you pie i'm finding it hard to pick a winner here
i believe that New Zealand are marginly[sp] the best side
home advantage is a big factor which seems to affect the decisions of the referees in the other tri-nations matches
the South African win in New Zealand has given the Springbox an advantage , but this time the All Blacks have Thorn and McCaw in this clash

i'm still undecided after typing this , i'll leave until nearer the kick-off

[redroar]

I'm with you , have'nt made up my mind yet.

Conditions look ideal, might go with overs as well.

[traeth]

I did not have a bet today , very unusual for me if i watch a match

South Africa 0-19 New Zealand

low scoring affair with S.A. gifting the final try to the All Blacks , Carter missing penalties and conversions but his kicking from hand was superb , McCaw had a great game . Referee ignored the home crowd and was biased towards New Zealand , some odd decisions , McCaw had to correct the ref once , the ref was wrong!

[Pie-chucker]

Australia get a 7 point start with SkyBet.

That'll do me as an opening salvo.

22pts Aus +7 @ 10/11

[traeth]

That 7 point handicap looks tempting following South Africa inability to breakdown the All Blacks defence last week , if this is a low scoring affair 7 points is enough I believe .The last ry scored by New Zealand was due to a mistake from S.A. backs trying to get a score towards the end of the match , up to the 60 minute S.A. were still in the game thanks mainly to the ref allowing constant infringing by the Springbox , he told Matfield quite a few times that this was the last warning. The Carter try putting N.Z. ahead put the extra pressure on S.A.

odds for a straight win South Africa 1.40 Drawn Match 19.00 Australia 2.87

[Snodser]

My record in this is crap so follow at your peril

SA win 4/7

[traeth]

South Africa v Australia 30 Aug

these odds from bet365
Hcap With Tie
South Africa -4.0 1.90
Hcap Tie - Australia +4.0 17.00
Australia +4.0 1.90

Match Result
South Africa 1.57
Tie 19.00
Australia 2.37

I think that Australia will win again this week , even though the tri nations decider will be in Brisbane on September 13th whatever the result here in Johannesburg
I'm inclined to go with the straight Australia win rather than play safe with the handicap.

Australia @ 2.4 with sportingbet today.

[Pie-chucker]

- 13 pts.... but am confident about this one!

The big, bald stat here is Australia's not winning in Jo'burg for 46 years or whatever it is. Last few they've only failed by a point or so. SA are simply altitude favourites. On team make-up/mood in the camp Aus are some way ahead and that's the way I'm going to play this. Deans is turning this lot into the real deal and I think they'll return to Brisbane tri-nations favourites.

20 pts Aus/Aus HT/FT @ 3.45 (NSW TAB)
4 pts Rocky Elsom try any time @ 13/2
1 pt Elsom first try/ Aus win by 13+ @ 111-1 (NSW TAB)
11 pts 45+ Total points @ 10/11

[Snodser]

Going to give the aussies the kiss of death............

Aus +3.5 4/5 lads