Rugby Union -Anglo Welsh Cup

[traeth]

odds from paddies
Leicester 1.57 Draw 21.00 Ospreys 2.50

The handicap
Leicester-4.0 1.90 v The Ospreys +4.0 1.90

with this being the Ospreys only chance of silverware now that they are out of the Heineken , they were well beaten last week by Saracens who they thrashed in the semi. The Ospreys made several mistakes last week when they looked like scoring tries , imo three players let the side down , Holah ,Parker and Vaughton . If they can cut out the errors they will give Leicester a good match . One of my favourite non-welsh player Castrogiovanni will be a handful for the Ospreys front row. I can see this being a close match so i'm tempted by Ospreys +4 with paddies

[Snodser]

are Leics in the running in the guiness or is this their only hope too?

just wondering about motivation really and who is/isn't playing?

I saw ospreys last week and it was not great.

how about a bigger handicap?




Em, a bit disjointed that

Basically looking for extra "on the ground" info

Cheers traeth

[traeth]

close at the top of the guinness
Guinness Premiership
1 Gloucester 18 117 56
2 Bath 18 79 55
3 Harlequins 18 31 54
4 Leicester 18 107 53
5 Sale 17 70 50


these are the teams which i gleaned from bbc preview here: BBC SPORT | Rugby Union | Leicester v Ospreys (Sat)
Leicester: J Murphy; Smith, Hipkiss, Mauger, Tuilagi; Goode, Ellis; Stankovich, Chuter, Martin Castrogiovanni, L Deacon, Kay, Corry (capt), Herring, Crane.
Replacements: Kayser, White, Blaze, Croft, Laussucq, Vesty, Varndell.

Ospreys: Byrne; Vaughton, Parker, Bishop, Williams; Hook, Marshall; James, Hibbard, Adam Jones, Alun Wyn Jones, Ian Evans, R Jones (capt), Holah, Tiatia.
Replacements: Bennett, D Jones, Gough, Thomas, Owen, Spratt, Brew.

Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland).

[Snodser]

Just looking at the "names" I have to admit that leics look the better option.
That said I have not see them play since thier last H-Cup match.

have to start reading I suppose

[redroar]

On paper two fairly even teams however the Tigers have two big advantages for me:

1. Mauger and hipkiss are far better then bishop and parker(henson is a huge loss).

2. Lyn Jones has a poor record when taking into account the players at his disposal whereas as Loffreda is the master tactician who will be hungry for his first trophy.

I've watched the Ospreys about ten times this year and only once have they seriously impressed me.

Leicester outright 7/10 (very confident)
Leicester -4 @ evens (confident)

[Doc]

Both teams underperformed somewhat last week, most particularly Leicester whose opponents Wasps exacted full revenge for their defeat the previous week in this competition. I expect something of a reaction from each team. Leicester have shown in the past that when they are beated they are at their most dangerous, while Ospreys are still a little callow to my mind - there are too few individuals prepared to back up a really poor result with a top drawer performance. Henson is a big loss for the Welsh side, his solid unfussy play the antithesis of his public persona. Leicester are not quite at full strength either, with the most unusual selection being that of Ollie Smith on the wing for Tom Varndell. One can only assume it is a defensive manouvre to mark Shane Williams, although I wouldn't be surprised if it is a ruse and Varndell appears from the start. The Leicester pack looks a little one-paced, but they'll probably be their usual handful in the tight. The Ospreys were bullied badly last week and a repeat could be on the cards for them here. The match isn't quite home for Leicester, but it is more so than it is for the Welsh. Leicester have the greater big game experience and that sways me in their favour. Just.

-3 @ 1.91 is widely available redroar. I agree with you on Lyn Jones, but Loffreda doesn't seem to have settled into Leicester well so far IMO - they've not fired properly this season when you consider the quality of their squad. Full stats etc in my full preview which I quote from above.

[Snodser]

Leics 4/6 BS

[traeth]

i'm having second thoughts , i'm usually follow the team with the "best" balanced backrow . Both backrows are close for me today and it is the difference in the centres that has changed my thinking , with Henson missing the Ospreys lack the balance in the centres that Leicester have today.

so not sure what to do , straight win Leicester, handicap bet Leicester -3 or in-play back and lay

[redroar]

was way off on that one, apologies to all

[Snodser]

We are all on a roll reds.

1/3 for me all leagues so far.

worst start we've ever had

can't get any worse




can it

[traeth]

Leicester (6) 6 v Ospreys (7) 23

Leicester started well then after 15 minutes they were poor and did nothing for the rest of the game , Hook played well for the Ospreys and they reduced their mistakes from last week mainly thanks to Leicester not putting them under enough pressure.
I did not have a bet on this one as i was undecided , should have stuck to my original thoughts but that how it goes in this world of gambling win some , lose a lot

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by traeth

I did not have a bet on this one as i was undecided , should have stuck to my original thoughts but that how it goes in this world of gambling win some , lose a lot

Dead right traeth, once you start thinking too much about it
it all goes to pot .

Back to "tried and tested" next week

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Snodser

Dead right traeth, once you start thinking too much about it
it all goes to pot .

yeh the big pot belonging to the bookies

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by traeth

yeh the big pot belonging to the bookies

Excellent .

Just do like me, One budget and thats it , once its all gone you stop, for good. Keeps me honest, I earn, albeit slowly .

9 months now .

[traeth]

my rugby returns are up this season , but that is due mainly to Wales not losing a game in the six nations , did lose the ht bet against England though.
previous six nation had a terrible time ,
i spend more time studying the footie , may make more of an effort when next season starts , most of the time the cappers get it right for the Magner/Guinness matches so i stick to the internationals and the heiniken