[Snodser]

Newcastle 13-32 Wasps.

No complaints at this end .

[Doc]

A decent weather forecast for the 'wild west' for a change, but a major contrast in the strength of the sides. Ospreys are less than 2nd string, as end of season 'fatigue' and a Wales training camp take precedence. Connacht are at full strength for this game. The O's fielded essentially the same side on Tuesday night, going down to a tired Dragons outfit, despite producing some nice touches. It is a big ask to come back three days later and do it all again, especially having to travel to Galway. Connacht have only pride to play for, but their home record is ok and they'll be keen to make amends for the disaster that was the Cardiff game. Ospreys haven't won on the road yet this year, and it isn't likely that they'll break their duck here.
Recommended Bet
Connacht -6 @ 1.91 with Bluesq


Leinster wrapped up the title last week by beating the same opposition at home, while Dragons only interest in the league was concluded on Tuesday when they beat the Ospreys to seal a place in next years Heineken Cup. 3 games in 6 days will take its toll on any squad, especially one with the lack of depth of the Dragons. With little to play for and poor form this season, their difficulties are compounded by several injury worries resulting in two either/or selections on the team and bench. Leinster use their squad depth bringing in 10 players from last weeks side, and 11 from their arguably first choice run-on side. However, there is still plenty of quality there and they won't want to sign off on their season with an anti-climax.
Recommended Bet
Leinster -5 @ 1.91 with Stan James


Last week saw contrasting performances - Ulster were the better side in many respects but gifted soft scores to Glasgow, losing by 9 points, while Cardiff soaked up Connacht pressure and were clinical with their chances in taking a 5 point haul while they were theoretically still in contention for the league. That chance is now gone as Leinster took the title last week and I'm sure that the Cardiff boys are looking forward to putting their feet up for the off-season. With a Wales training camp stripping them of a bunch of players, there is a very unfamiliar look about the side, although there are still quality players there in the likes of Nicky Robinson, Xavier Rush etc. Ulster field a fairly strong lineup, and it will be an emotional moment for Ulster legend David Humphreys who plays his last game of rugby tomorrow. With several other players departing after this game, the Ulster crowd will be as boisterous as ever and the team is sure to want to both make amends for last week and put on a good show. I can't see Cardiff being that bothered, and Ulster should win with a bit to spare.
Recommended Bet
Ulster -7 @ 1.91 with Bet365

[redroar]

Good write up Doc and I agree with most of your points. My main concern is that all three are nothing games in terms of the league season. Connacht should beat the Ospreys second team but I'd question their motivation.It might be Bradleys last game in charge but I yhink there's a 'who cares' attitude in Cannacht at the mo. I do like the leinster bet but they are a tad unreliable away from home. The best pick of the three is the Ulster -7, its the last game for about six of their core team and I cant see them losing to a weak looking cardiff 15.

[Doc]

I know what you're saying redroar, but it is a very weak Ospreys side who played on Tuesday night (and lost) with no motivation either, and having to travel to Galway.

Leinster are a different beast this year - Their away record in the ML is played 8, won 5, drawn 1, lost 2. The losses were by 2 points and 4 points (Edinburgh and Glasgow), the draw to Ulster and the wins by 11 (Cardiff), 7 (Ospreys), 7 (Munster), 6 (Connacht), 14 (Llanelli) - every single one of which was in pissing rain conditions. With a decent forecast I think they'll do it here, even with a slightly weaker side - the Dragons are playing their 3rd game in 6 days

[redroar]

You make so fair points but the Connacht game is a no no for me.
I'd forgotten the Dragons had played so much of late. Leinster on the handicap should be ok. I think their away record has improved this year in some part due to their mix of foreign and fringe irish players in the pack. I watched a few of their away games on S4C and LeRoux,Jennings and co have really put bite into what has traditionally been seen as a soft 8.Playing with a full strenght eight during the six nations helped too.

[Doc]

Playing with a full strenght eight during the six nations helped too

LOL, I'm not trying to be picky, but while they weren't hit at a Munster type level they still suffered. Jackman, Heaslip and O'Kelly were with the senior squad all the way, and Healy and Jennings were call-ups for the A side. Biggest factors IMO has been LeRoux (as you've noted), Stan Wright improving out of all recognition, Cullen returning from Leicester and on the coaching side Brewer and Cheika getting the workload just right. I can't remember one single soft tissue injury in the pack all season - which is pretty impressive work on the coaching/conditioning/medical side.

[Snodser]

Treble; Connacht, Leinster & Ulster

[Doc]

disaster tonight. Sorry boys and girls!

Tomorrows games:

Wasps -17 with Hills
Bath +5 with Boylesports
Quins +11 with StanJames
Sale -6 with VCBet
Sarries -9 with Coral
Worcester -11 with Hills

[Doc]

Munster -11 with Hills
Edinburgh +5 with StanJames

[Snodser]

Munster -12
llanelli win

[Snodser]

Wasps -20
Bath +5
Quins +10
Sale -7
Sarries -10
Words -13