Rugby Union, France, Top 14.

[Doc]

Snodser, I wasn't implying that you weren't being accurate - just that in the long term over hundreds of games it is very unlikely that you'd (or anyone else) be able to sustain a strike rate of 65%+

To do otherwise would mean the bookies are very bad at setting lines - and they aren't that bad.

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by DoctorOfDanger

just that in the long term over hundreds of games it is very unlikely that you'd (or anyone else) be able to sustain a strike rate of 65%+

To do otherwise would mean the bookies are very bad at setting lines - and they aren't that bad.

Simple curiosity, have you looked at your machine/system
to see how in/out of line it is? Not ness. talking about wins, but how close you were to the actual score.


2 examples;
I hesitated on Clermont this weekend and finally opted for the handicap which I felt was safer. (I always prefer "safe" bets). My "system", if I can call it that, showed me no good reason for Clermont losing. Yet at the end I was wrong, got a win yes but I was wrong.

Brive Dax; I took Dax +10,(based on there results against similar teams) you Brive -9. Fair play, You got the win but strictly speaking we were both wrong.

The point I am trying to make is that whatever the % results we can do better, in all leagues.

I'd like to see all of us getting as many winning bets as we can on all leagues. Do not all have to be evens or 10/11, nothing wrong with a winning 4/7 etc.

We don't have to get anal about it but I honestly see no reason we can't hit +60/70% every week.

Then again, maybe I'm greedy

[redroar]

The thing with taking 4/7 shots is that it distorts the averages, roughly speaking you need to win two 4/7 bets to cover a loss on a 10/11 bet.

I do agree though that we need not pick exclusively 10/11 shots but thats were the bookies have the advantage in offering poor match odds. The french league in particular has terrible match odds mainly due to the home advantage effect.

I will make a point of including more 4/7 bets and possible doubles and treblesteam that give odds of around 10/11. I'm sick of forcing myself to pick a handicap. Its all about the profit, by any means possible

Incidently have either of you tried Boyles offer for the free bets? I'm thinking of opening an account with them but they're slow in providing me with a full list of rules and regs.

[Doc]

Agreed nothing wrong taking shorter odds (or longer) provided there is value, but if you're varying the odds then 'strike rate' becomes somewhat moot.

There is a certain amount of chance in the outcome of every game, so no system can ever be exact, all you can do is seek to minimize the error. I haven't analyzed in detail what the average bookies error is when you compare the handicap to the actual margin, but I know on my 'machine' it is of the order of 7 points. I'll then finesse the predictions with my own thoughts based on information not taken into account by the 'machine' - e.g. is a lineup weak, or is a match extra important for one side but not the other etc. Sometimes that works (e.g. Bath Worcester - machine said Bath by 0.7, but I took Bath -2 - margin was 3 points) and sometimes not - e.g. Leicester-Bristol (Machine said Tigers by 12.1, I went Tigers -20 and margin was 18). In both of those the bookies were closer than the machine, but in others they weren't - e.g. the machine had London Irish by 6.5 (actual margin 7, bookies said 4) or Edinburgh-Leinster (machine had Leinster 1.9) - bookies had Leinster -6 (actual maring was Edinburgh by 2)

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by redroar

I'm sick of forcing myself to pick a handicap. Its all about the profit, by any means possible

Exactly

Originally Posted by redroar

Incidently have either of you tried Boyles offer for the free bets? I'm thinking of opening an account with them but they're slow in providing me with a full list of rules and regs.

I have an a/c and have never had a problem with them, but some people have:

http://www.thedailypunt.com/forum/fr...tml#post501671

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by DoctorOfDanger

Agreed nothing wrong taking shorter odds (or longer) provided there is value, but if you're varying the odds then 'strike rate' becomes somewhat moot.

Agreed:
What do you & reds think of posting by "points" ?

ie: each pick = 1 point and apply the odds be they 10/11 or 2/5 etc

We all agree a 70% strike rate at odds of 1/10 or 4/7 etc will bring in money but 1 mistake eats all the profits.

10/11 or better would be fantastic but as you both say its hard to get good h/caps. Since I started in here I've gone "against the head" on 3 occasions but have been sorely tempted on more than once (eg Clermont)

I use PP & BS and find that BS give me the best odds,
what do you guys use (apart from SJ Dods ;-) )

My idea is not to start a competition amongst ourselves but to ensure higher gains

Originally Posted by DoctorOfDanger

There is a certain amount of chance in the outcome of every game, so no system can ever be exact,

Exactly, if it was easy every bugger and his gran would be cleaning out the bookies. Pity some of the people who visit don't add to the pot, when you see the n° of views there must be one or two who have some knowledge. I myself lurk around other areas and often have nothing to add, the odd thank you maybe, with a small word letting them know rugby exists.

[redroar]

So your suggesting multiplying the points by the odds to give and overall strike rate, I like it.

Sorry to side track you on the boylesports thing again snodser but did you actually manage to get any freebies off them? I read that thread in the free bets page and it does'nt sound encouraging.

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by redroar

So your suggesting multiplying the points by the odds to give and overall strike rate, I like it.

Glad you like the idea, just want to make a few things clear.
If we make this a comp. among ourselves the only winners are the bookies.
We need to get our "thoughts" together as early as possible each WE with a view to everyone getting there money on the winners. Obviously the fact that certain sites post their odds less than 24hrs before the games complicates the task.
We have to make the best of it but if we start trying to outdo each other for pyrrhic victories we are fcuked.
I really could not give

Originally Posted by redroar

Sorry to side track you on the boylesports thing again snodser but did you actually manage to get any freebies off them? I read that thread in the free bets page and it does'nt sound encouraging.

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by redroar

So your suggesting multiplying the points by the odds to give and overall strike rate, I like it.

Glad you like the idea, just want to make a few things clear.
If we make this a comp. amongst ourselves the only winners are the bookies.

We need to get our "thoughts" together as early as possible each WE with a view to everyone getting their money on the winners. Obviously the fact that certain sites post their odds less than 24hrs before the games complicates the task.
We have to make the best of it but if we start trying to outdo each other for pyrrhic victories we are fcuked.

I really could not give a flip who makes the best picks as long as we all go forward: ie make money.(I squat the horeracing threads where some very intelligent people share with mere mortels like myself, some of these guys are better then good) I may have a head start in the T14 but I'm a waste of space on the GP/ML.
No matter, if all three (those reading are more than welcome to join) of us can maximise our chances we all win. Looking forward to feedback

Originally Posted by redroar

Sorry to side track you on the boylesports thing again snodser but did you actually manage to get any freebies off them? I read that thread in the free bets page and it does'nt sound encouraging.

Yes, got my freebets. Put 25 on NZ against I don't remember who (1/500) with the aim of taking Argentina 6/1 against France on the opener of RWC 2007.
When it did'nt show I rang and they explained my first bet had to "play" before the freebet kicked in. Was not how I read the T&C's. All in I got my few quid out of them over several weeks but I must mention it was a 50€ freebet , not 200€. Can't complain, made a profit...........

[Snodser]

H/Challenge - Cup or not; life goes on, this weeks fixtures:

Fri 25/04 19.30
Montpelier v Stade Francais

Sat 26/04 16.30
Auch v Clermont
Bayonne v Bourgoin
Dax v Albi

17.30
Montauban v Biarritz

19.30
Brive v Perpignan




Due to H-Cup semi-final, Castres v Toulouse has been postponed 'till 07/05/08

[redroar]

Originally Posted by Snodser

H/Challenge - Cup or not; life goes on, this weeks fixtures:

Fri 25/04 19.30
Montpelier v Stade Francais

Sat 26/04 16.30
Auch v Clermont
Bayonne v Bourgoin
Dax v Albi

17.30
Montauban v Biarritz

19.30
Brive v Perpignan




Due to H-Cup semi-final, Castres v Toulouse has been postponed 'till 07/05/08

Some tough calls there. Here are my uneducated picks.
Off the top of my head I'd say Montpeiller with the handicap(6/7?)
Jeez clermont with anything up to -28(what a team)
Bayonne outright if Dourthe starts.
Dax outright
Cant split Mountaban and Biarritz
Perpignan outright.

[Snodser]

As of now boyle have not posted their odds which is unusual.
May have to give them a ring & let them know there are some games on

[Doc]

Montpellier +6
Clermont -15
Bayonne -5
Dax -4
Montauban +1
Brive +2

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Snodser

Fri 25/04 19.30
Montpelier v Stade Francais

Sorry lads, thought I had dealt with this earlier. Bit caught up in europe .

Exactly the sort of game anything can happen, result matters little to either team, M may wish to get a win after a bit of a bad run and SF are in the semi's, the coach is out the door............... could be pretty boring. But will prob. be the only game I see this WE .

Two liitle 'uns:

Montpelier 5pts 7/4
Montpelier 7pts 10/11 +5.

Don't know why but I have a strange feeling about this WE....................

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Snodser

Montpelier 5pts 7/4
Montpelier 7pts 10/11 +5.

Montpelier 9 - 12 Paris

Montpelier could have won this with a little bit more "experience". Paris were blessed that M could not kick & the 'ref was blinded by the lovely pink suits.

He was about to give a yellow to Roncero when his linesman signalled another foul, So Swazzeski goes?

And they want to bring in new rules? The refs can't even enforce the existing ones.........

Anyway no harm done, but its very frustrating to watch a (supposedly) high level game & see so many basic mistakes by a referee.
The players are even worse seeing as how the buggers are getting paid for it!!! Ok Ok maybe not as much as the nancy boys in the premier league but still & all!





12 pts bet
13.4 pts return (+1.4pts)