Kitchen Sink -Third Time Lucky

[stereoman]

They're scared? I know I am already!

I've put £25 on at 8/1 with Bet Direct on Laura to win it all as she's attracting some of the early money (I can't fooking believe that by suggesting that we're due a Welsh winner that up comes one fairly strong contender almost immediately! ).

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2...250099,00.html

As soon as 'all' the contestants are in I'm gonna send Gamebookers an e-mail as to what nationality Gamebookers thinks they all are (particularly someone like Nicky) so I'm not rooting for the wrong winner.

...Laura or someone English to win. Please!

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Gerry's out of the picture so I should be safe. Never did contact Gamebookers but Brian or Sam/Amanda are English as are everybody else that's left...um, I think.

Anyhoo let's get a move on whilst I wait for BB8 to finish at the end of the month...remember when I lost $275 at Bodog? Well this thread will incorporate Bodog Revenge Mission: Stereoman Strikes Back.

I've always hated the fecking bonus deposit clearing unless I misunderstood which is possible. It's gone now though but I hate their horrible stingy odds and low $50 maximum bets even more...so why bet there? I think I've got a clear shot at getting my $275 back and it's one of the few places I can bet on my wacky stuff which are mainly award shows.

What's my bankroll this time? $350.

Awards season kicks off soon. Focus right now is on the MTV Video Music Awards that are happening on Sunday 9th September which is just under three weeks from now.

I'm convinced it'll be another 'You turn up, we'll give you something' affair and this makes it generally easy.

Who's turning up that matter? Justin Timberlake, Fall Out Boy, Kanye West, Rihanna and Amy Winehouse.

2007 MTV Video Music Awards | MTV.com
2007 VMA | Updates On Performers And Guests | MTV.com

What are the odds on what categories? Bodog are only offering odds on FOUR categories plus a random proposition and as anybody who bets at Bodog knows any hint of action on a nominee will drastically cut the odds down so it's best to move fast as they've already cut itchy feet on a few nominees.



PREDICTIONS?

* Best Group? Fall Out Boy at 5/4 is worth a punt.
* Best New Artist? Amy Winehouse should win but I ain't betting her at 5/6. The month-long public vote could easily see Carrie Underwood winning but afaik she hasn't been invited to the show.
* Female Artist of the Year? I expect Rihanna to win even though Beyonce is odds-on (she won't be there on the night but hey, Christina Aguilera won at the MTV Europe Awards and she didn't turn up even though Nelly Furtado did) and Amy Winehouse could provide a threat. Nelly Furtado's moment in the sun was last year.
* Male Artist of the Year? Surely Justin Timberlake is here to win? He was 11/10 and was bet all the way into 1/2 which could be a trifling puzzling as he isn't performing but he will be there which suggests he's turning up to collect an award or two. Kanye West is the spoiler as he will be performing. Kanye could be fobbed off with another award though.

...so after all that? Yep, only TWO bets:

BET 1: $50 on Fall Out Boy at 5/4 winning Best Group to win $62.50.
BET 2: $50 on Rihanna at 14/5 winning Female Artist of the Year to win $140.

[stereoman]

Originally Posted by stereoman

Someone's asked about Emirates when it wasn't originally priced-up and it's the 11/4 favourite? Say hello to the 2008 Emirates Derby then.

I'll chance my arm with a £40 investment.

Forgot about this bet back in late January. I needn't have bothered as Emirates have pulled out of the race back in July. I'd have to wait until Christmas to get paid out. Stuff the Donkey Derby.

Horse Racing: Four Blue-chip Firms in Race to Sponsor Derby

Eh. Only £40.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. This time next week I'm gonna be either delighted or disappointed. Chances are the latter but hey, ya gotta take a gamble right?

If I'm wrong on all four counts I'll have lost half of my $350 bankroll.

Bodog have put up odds for Video of the Year:



50 Cent is a late invite, Timbaland is host, Justin has the most nominations alongside Beyonce...it seems geared towards a Justin Timberlake win to me.

Justin's been backed down to 1/3 to win Male Artist, Fall Out Boy into 'evens' to win Group, Beyonce's still 10/11 to win Female Artist (WHY!?) and Amy Winehouse is still 5/6 to win New Artist even though she isn't turning up.

I think Rihanna's new boyfriend Shia LeBeouf is turning up to present New Artist to Rihanna. 14/5 is fantastic odds that it isn't a coincidence.

They've given awards to non-attendees before (last year Female Video of the Year went to Kelly Clarkson) but I've almost adamant that all the winners this year will be in attendance and I'm taking a small punt that Gym Class Heroes will win New Artist.

Two more bets:

BET 3: $50 on Justin Timberlake at 3/1 winning Video of the Year to win $150.
BET 4: $25 on Gym Class Heroes at 5/2 winning Best New Artist to win $62.50.

[stereoman]

I'm only just realized this...I haven't checked into my Gamebookers account. I've just done that now and they haven't paid me that Brian's English and it's still an 'open bet' (!?). If you don't poke to prompt them then Gamebookers really are useless tarts.

Elsewhere over at Bodog in regards the MTV Video Music Awards for this Sunday...

* Video of the Year ~ no change
* Best Group - Fall Out Boy 'evens', Gym Class Heroes 7/2, Linkin Park 2/1, Maroon 5 3/1, The White Stipes 5/1
* Best New Artist ~ no change
* Female Artist ~ Beyoncé 'evens', Fergie 2/1, Nelly Furtado 5/2, Rihanna 3/2, Amy Winehouse 3/1 (hope that's MTV executives backing Rihanna and not just me)
* Male Artist ~ Akon 7/2, Robin Thicke 5/1, T.I. 13/4, Justin Timberlake 2/7, Kanye West 3/1

[stereoman]

BLUERGH!! Should have went for Rihanna in Video of the Year as Fergie wins Female Artist of the Year instead (like fuck she is).

2007 MTV Video Music Awards - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

W:2 L:2 BET: $175 MONEY BACK: $200 PROFIT: $25

Better than a punch in the face I suppose.

[stereoman]

Well my Bodog bank in this thread here is $375...I can't believe I haven't updated this thread since September.

With the recent announcements for the nominations of the Golden Globes and Grammy Awards we're into awards season which is where I sometimes can do my damage.



BET 5: $55 at 10/11 on Foo Fighters' Echoes, Silence, Patience and Grace winning Best Rock Album to win $50.
BET 6: $75 at 2/3 that Kanye West's Graduation wins Best Rap Album to win $50.
BET 7: $50 at 3/2 that Vince Gill's These Days wins Best Country Album to win $75.

...so that's $180 to win $175.

No science behind these picks as they're all Album of the Year nominees and they should all win their respective sub-categories. It should be like shooting fish in a barrel. If I tank on all three it'll wipe out all almost half my Bodog betting bank!

Golden Globes wise it's a bit early but I've put a speculative bet of £39.50 at 4/1 that Sweeney Todd will win Best Comedy/Musical over at Paddy Power.

[stereoman]

I've put a saver bet of £24.96 that Juno will win Best Comedy/Musical at the Golden Globes over at Paddy Power as these two are the likeliest to go onto Oscar glory (Hairspray won't get a look-in, Charlie Wilson's War has bombed at the box office and few people liked Across The Universe).

I should have seen it coming really as it was 12/1 and it's now 6/1 what with recent precursor awards have given it a bit of a leg up.

[stereoman]

Lucky break that nobody else gave a stuff about the Derby so much so that Vodafone are re-sponsoring it in a one-off deal this year. Bets are voided. Well money back is better than a punch in the face!

Hmmm. I fell for the late hype for Juno which didn't translate into too much at the Golden Globes.

All three won at the Grammys. The Bodog bank is at $550. PROFIT: $200 from 7 bets.

The various bets over on The Oscars 2008 and other film awards thread WILL count towards the 'Bodog Revenge Mission'.

It's been a curious couple of weeks results-wise with the biggie culminating for me this Sunday (the Oscars if anyone's forgotten).

My mood for the rest of the year is almost dependant on it.

[stereoman]

No time to explain...get on this bet QUICK!! He's performing this week on Thursday night!



$50 on Blake Lewis at 9/2!

http://www.blakelewisfansite.com/mod...opics&topic=15

I'll do all my updates on my betting record and stuff later on.

[Napoleon Solo]

I'm on Stereo! Worth $50 with that info!

[MickeyPaul]

Gaaaaaar. I'm always too late.

[stereoman]

Bodog are usually very quick to shut down a market if their liabilities get too much...or if they're feeling generous to merely readjust the odds.

There's still the matter of whether this is a huge red herring (it shouldn't be as it's also reported on Blake Lewis' official website that he's turning up on Thursday) and whether Bodog will honour the bet and pay up.

[stereoman]

ACH!! They've pulled the old 'Any wagers placed after the result is public knowledge will be No Action' routine so the bet is void.

Eh. Can't complain too much as I got on far too late when it would been a 'legitimate bet'. There'll be other opportunities to get back at them.

W:7 L:3 VOID:1 BET: $560 MONEY BACK: $612.50 PROFIT: $262.50

It doesn't look right but I'm pretty sure it is, as I do have $612.50 in the betting bank. Christ I'm grinding along aren't I!?

Hmmm. It's taken me this long to get this far I think I should put up a target to try and speed things up a bit: $500 profit and we'll see how things go from there.

It should theoretically have been a piece of piss but I didn't sense the gambles on Marion Cotillard and Tilda Swinton at the Oscars until far too late and didn't even gamble correctly.

I'll probably incorporate a few sports bets...but not fooking baseball! That was one of the things that killed me in my original Bodog Suicide Mission.

[stereoman]

I'm going to go try something a little unorthodox. No UK sportsbook has odds on Cage Rage but a few will stick their necks out for UFC...which is odd.

The fights that Bodog are covering:



The weigh-ins:

Robert Berry 240lbs vs. Ken Shamrock 220lbs
Rob Broughton 282lbs vs. Neil Grove 273lbs
Gary Turner 220lbs vs. Mustapha al Turk 241lbs
Pierre Guillet 185lbs vs. Tom Watson 185lbs
Jean Silva 144lbs vs. Masakazu Imanari 144lbs

It's intriguing that the winner of the Robert Berry vs. Ken Shamrock fight could be fighting the much hyped Kimbo Slice next. I don't think Ken Shamrock should lose but hey, who knows? If I had to bet I'd be cheering on Robert Berry but I can't be too sure if he's fully recovered from his fight against Neil Grove where he had to stop after the first round. Berry's a natural heavyweight and Shamrock's moved back up to this division. I think Berry will smother Shamrock for the win.

I think Neil Grove could dispatch Rob Broughton just about and I don't think Rob will have any time to use any of his guile against Neil who'll just rush him. No bet though.

I think Mustapha Al Turk certain looks worth a dabble at those odds but Gary Turner on the whole ain't a mug (although Tank Abbott made him look like one!). No bet again.

The Brazilian vs. Japanese fight looks too hard to call but I'd side with Jean Silva if I had to.

The bet? $62.50 on Tom Watson at 10/17 to beat Pierre Guillet to win $36.76. Tom Watson's going up-and-up and Pierre's probably just a tomato can they've put in place for him to have a go at. Yeah a lot of ramble with not much of an angle....if it comes in, who cares? Worryingly despite the $500 limit they've put on, it says I can have up to $850!

You could do worse than try the experts' opinions over at Sherdog though.