A situation with pocket Aces

[aliensyndm]

I'll guarantee you now that 90% of online players will not fold a set there if you put them all in. Nor will they fold a flush, even though it's not the nut.

In both scenarios A and B you describe you are beaten so why put all your chips in ? He can't have the nuts no but he can still have a better hand than you which is the thing you are trying to figure out.
If a bet of $10 is consistent with having the nuts, knowing this why would he want to check raise you then ?


Problem here is no info at all on opponent. Is he a decent player or not ? Is he weak, tight, loose, aggressive etc ?


Cmon muze tell us what happened. Thing is whatever did happen doesn't make one person right anyway, but it's interesting to see what happened in this scenario this one time.

[Doc]

well consider purely from the pot-odds pov

You go all in and then

a) He calls you with one of the above hands
b) He calls you with something like King diamonds and a Jack
c) He folds

Look at the EV's

a) you are around 25-30% to win the pot. So lets say 25%. 25% of the time you win $123.50, so the (partial) EV is about +$31. The remainder you lose $80, so the net (partial) EV is -$29
b) you are an 80% favourite, so about +$106 when you win and -$11 when you lose. Total is +$95
c) even if we assume that your 90% call figure is correct, then the other 10% you take the pot, so the (partial) EV is 10% of $43.50, or $4.35

Some basic algebra would show that if he has a lesser holding like KdJx only 20% of the time you make a profit.

If he would fold 20% of the time then you only need him to have top pair 15% of the time.

A check-raise against a pre-flop raiser with a scary flop is a very effective move. Say you didn't have the Ad and it was checked to you - you'd probably make a bet as you just did, and then drop it to the check-raise.

If I was guessing, I'd say there is something like the following chances:

a) 5% you are up against a made flush
b) 10% you are up against trips
c) 45% you are up against some some sort of hand, but weaker than yours
d) 40% you are up against a weaker hand looking to bluff you off.

From his POV he is betting $20 to win $23. He only needs you to fold maybe something like 35-40% of the time for it to be profitable if he is in (d), and less if he is in (c) - maybe 25%

The more I see it, the more I think all-in is the right move.

What happened Mr. Muzeman?

[aliensyndm]

a) 25-30% ? If he calls with a hand like 88,JJ or 33 you are actually as much as 34.7% to win the pot, that's a big difference from 25% !!!!
If he calls with a made flush you are still over 30% to win, depending on his cards. You could be as low as 23% if he had 9-10 diamonds. A possible hand like KQd is still 31.7% though.


b) You are actually a little over an 85% favourite against a hand like KdJc


But the thing is you I reckcon in situation a) against a set or a made flush you are gonna be called pretty much close to 100% of the time.
It all hinges on how often you think you will be called in situation b) which is the crux of the thing really. Is the money you stand to lose by being called when behind in situation a) outweighed by the money you make when called in situation b) (and the money you make from him folding in c) ?
Again that depends on the player and you ability to judge if he would call in situation b) or not. If you could guarantee a call 100% of the time in situation b) then yeah sure all in. But obviously you cannot do that.
There are still alot of hands beating AA with that flop. It's not like a J83 rainbow flop with you holing 33 or 88 where there are only 2 or 1 hands respectively beating you. Many different hands are still ahead to AA there.

[mrmuzeman]

Nice to see some sweet discussion going on

Ok regarding the player - its online, its an unknown in a low limit cash game. Theres probably more reason to think hes a poor player than a good one on that basis alone, but basically nothing is known.

What I did was CALL. I very much considered moving all in though. I just really wanted a diamond to come out first

The turn came with a Jack of hearts so paired the board.

He then checked to me. I took this is as weakness personally but it could be strength as well on a slowplay. I checked behind hoping for a diamond river which might get a payday. Whether this was a good check I dont know.

The river came a blank. He then moved ALL IN and I folded cos there was 3 flush and a pair on the board.

He showed 74d

[mrmuzeman]

Oh and by the way you gotta LOVE his check on the turn giving me 11 FREE OUTS to the best hand there. Any diamond, jack or ace and its yahtzee.

My reason for posting was to gain insight on whether I should have moved all in on the flop cos I did consider it. In this circumstance it wouldve lost as a 32% underdog. But on another occasion would it force a laydown? A call with a worse hands etc to make it a good play. Its certainly aggressive and we know thats a good thing. I had to admit it seemed at the time to be a bit shit the way i played it. Call, check, fold with a big hand and draw like this.

Thanks for all the views this far. Also I would like to hear what Jezza has to say as well

[christianu]

I think the main point about this is he isnt going to check raise you holding JQ JK J10 and only slightly possible is JA. They would be the only hands you would be realisticly beating.

The fact he minimum raised as well indicates he is not trying to bluff the pot as DOC suggested he would do 40% of the time. Not at all for me, out of position and a minimum raise does not seem like a bluff to me, it seems like a hand that is better than a pair.

[mrmuzeman]

Id like to add a possible hand imo he could have is QQ with diamond queen

[christianu]

That isnt a possibility to me as he limped in lets not forget that, it eliminates your JJ QQ KK in my book.

[mrmuzeman]

A lot of people slowplay their big pairs espesh from utg and early. Remember your playing against not very good players a lot of the time. Also I dont see at all why JJ isnt a possibility. Its a hand I could have from utg there. Its a 10 seater cash game not a 6 seater btw.

[christianu]

Oooooo well you have to think with the information you have whats he most likely to have? QQ theres obviously a chance but its so slim in my book, I certainly wouldnt be limping with Queens, even at 0.5/1 there not that bad. I just cant see it MrM but then again 74

[Doc]

Ken

turn it the other way round - if you have 2nd or 3rd set on a 1 suited flop - what do you do? I'm going to bet at it with only two players in the hand. If I meet resistance, then I'll get defensive.

With a low flush (apart from the fact I'd have folded my hole cards immediately!) I'd still lead into that flop - I'd want to know where I stood. The check-raise isn't a bad play either, but I'd have raised more (I'd say this numpty was just pressing the raise button). If re-raised all-in I'd have to fold it. This guy mightn't based on the muck he was playing, but in general I still think the all-in was the way to go.
Mr. Muze still had a 32% chance of winning btw.

[mrmuzeman]

Fair dos Chris I forgot about the limp actually I must admit. Queens dont usually limp from there. I guarantee you though people slowplay KK and AA from early though, thats a pretty routine play.

As an offshoot JJ is a definite possibility in my book, its exactly the same way I would plays Jacks preflop the way it was played here.

I also think you overestimate the quality of players playing Chris there are a lot of real muppets up and including the 1/2 no limit games, most of the play is generally poor.

Some good comments all

[aliensyndm]

What I would do with a set and what the rest of online players might do is a different story. I'm judging it on what I know of online players. I don't judge the hand on what I think I might do myself as I'm not playing against myself. In my experience a check-raise there as described by muze is normally gonna be a better hand than 1 pair - the only hand you are beating.
As described before if I flop a set on a rainbow board against a raiser I believe to have KK or AA I will lead out hoping to get raised, alot of players will check raise here though as they think ooooo I got a great hand.
It just seemed quite likely in this case he had a better hand than 1 pair.

A numpty isn't gonna fold a set here, nor is he gonna fold any flush. Even slightly less numpty players are still gonna put all their chips in there with a set or flush. And numpty players love to check raise with things like a set or a flush. Yeah 32% chance of winning so why push all in and take close to even money for 32% ? Have a look at all the times you are check raised in NL (you play limit normally though don't you ?), I would expect that most times it happens the person has better than 1 pair or at least has a draw that he knows is the nuts(which he didn't here).

[Doc]

I normally play NL - albeit most often in tournament format.

[Jezza]

Hi Everyone,

A bit of a long time to take to reply to this thread I know . Soz guys, ive been away for xmas and hardly near a computer for two weeks over the xmas period - nevermind time to get firing back into some posts!

It seems this hand has generated a lot of debate over it. I'll try to give some thoughts on how I might have played it.

Ok....so this is not a bad flop for you at all even if it is not the greatest in the world. You have an overpair to a non paired board and there is no straight there. However there is an obvious flush, but you hold the key nut draw card! Even if someone flopped a flush (or a set) you have the nutredraw on them so you are certainly going to play here against the two opponents. When UTG checks here there is no question you are going to bet (the pot size preferably) - if you get action on your hand you can make a judgement then. So you bet, one guy folds and then UTG check raises with a minimum raise! What to do now?

Well, as many people have said he almost certainly has a good hand here. A lot of beginning players love to checkraise with their monster hands and several factors point to this being true imo. Firstly, he is checkraising a preflop raiser who clearly likes his hand - so he must like his even better. The guy checkraising prob does not have QQ or KK as he would certainly have raised/reraised preflop with these hands and he obviously does not have the lone A diamonds so he must have something better. With a very medicore hand on this flop (say AJ with no diamond obv) I believe he would probably just flat call and see what happens on the turn. The other factor is the size of his checkraise. Its just a MINIMUM raise! This again screams I have a monster as it obviously wants to be called, and almost noone will fold to it. The occasional time you get a player who is tricky enough to checkraise bluff it certainly will not be a minimum raise (and probably not into a tight player who obv likes his hand), and it will be bigger than a min raise (that he knows hardly anyone will fold to). Someone checkraising on a draw (which is very unlikey here I think because you have the nut draw - he COULD have KJ with the K diamonds i suppose but very unlikely imo) is liable to check-raise all in or at least make a substansial play for the pot. So I have to conclude there is a very large chance that we are beaten here on the flop (I would give it 80% he has outflopped us in some way, 15% it is a weaker hand like AJ and 5% some total random weirdo misclick/utterly stupid bluff play).....but how to play now?

Well, whatever he has here he has made a MISTAKE and that is in the size of his raise. No matter what he has we now have odds to play for the next card and he is playing into our hands with the size of that raise (if he had a worse hand like AJ a flat call would have been better for him, and if he has outflopped us with a set or flush then he should have made us put more money in with the worst hand here as we have a hand that can easily outdraw him - a raise to 40 would have been a better play from him). I think you have two options here, either flat calling or reraising all in. To those who said reraise all in... This is not a bad play, you of course have a good hand on this flop, have plenty of outs whatever he has and are the one making the move. The problem is you are almost certainly going in behind here - the saving grace is the pot odds are not TOO bad no matter what he has got. However they are still negative (albeit slightly) - if he has flopped a set you are 35% to win and if he has flopped a flush you are 32% to win. There will be 50 in the pot when you call his raise before raising, and you are going to move in with 80 more which he matches - a very deep stack to commit to a draw which you are behind on, although the pot is only a smallish amount below what would have made this a break even play. Had he been shorter, there is no question this is the play but although this is a fair play, is only marginallyish -ev and forces you to see both cards etc etc it should be fairly obvious you are going in on a draw here and behind. The point here is you have position over him and he has already shown he makes mistakes with betsizes - so why not try to let your positional advantage play out? Of course I had been first to go, led at this pot and then been raised (with the same stacks and players and hands) I would be far more inclined to have gone all in then as it would negate my positional disadvantage for the rest of the hand.

So the other option (and my preferred one in this situation) would be to flat call. You have position over him (a big advantage) and hopefully he will make a mistake on the turn which you can exploit - and allow you to turn control of the hand to you in reality. With the big stacks in play here I think this is definately the best option.

I would definately be looking to have to hit on the turn here and if I did not make my draw I would see what he did. If I missed on the turn and he bet large enough to give me bad odds for my river draw then it would be a very very annoying fold probably, if I hit then of course I am betting/raising and hopefully he is paying off - but the key here is if I miss and he bets tiny in relation to the pot again on the turn (or if, hopefully he makes a big big mistake and checks!), then again you can just flat call and hope for your river and play accordingly to what hits.

I think you played the hand very well muze

Jez