20-outer, what's your play?

[kristobal]

nearly 200 entries, 16 left, only 10 places paid you flop 20-outer with nut flush draw and nut straight draw, are you going to put your tournament life on the line? ... lol it's 20 outs - rule of 4 - 20 x 4 gives you 80% chance to complete your hand what's your view?

[Scottieboy08]

Yep, no question Kris That a sick miss on the turn/river

[kristobal]

Originally Posted by Scottieboy08

Yep, no question Kris That a sick miss on the turn/river

it wasn't funny then!

[Doc]

I don't see much point in raising. you have position and he has to call any bet with the odds he's getting, unless he is on a stone bluff.

I'd raise (probably) or fold this hand pre-flop though at this stage.

Rule of 4 is for hold-em by the way - not Omaha.

[kristobal]

thanks Doc, exactly, rule of 4 is for holdem - I know that but I don't know how to calculate my chances in omaha yet, not there yet , my opponent was playing a lot of hands in the last 10 min prior to this hand, he was really lucky to double up few times and pick up some pots, and I thought I could bet him out of the pot and if not I thought I still was a big favourite to win.

[Doc]

The rule of 4 is based on the idea that if you know your hole cards (2) and the flop cards (3) there are 47 cards you don't know. If you have 3 outs, then you have a 3/47 chance of hitting them on the turn. 3/47 ~ 6/100. If you take turn and river you have twice that, approximately, i.e. 12/100. So the rule of 4 comes about.

With Omaha, you have fewer unknown cards, so you actually have a slightly better chance of hitting your outs. You do need to be a lot more careful though that your outs are 'clean'. You are effectively facing 6 times the number of hands in Omaha as there are 6 combinations of 2 that you can make from 4 cards.

Your opponent would be wrong to fold there almost regardless of what cards he actually had. Weak players who fold too much are very rare - most weak players call to much. You'd be far better off there just calling and knowing that he'll call your bet if you hit (and he probably should too given the even better odds he is getting)