Flopped bottom set on suited board. Do you push?

[raisin man]

OK, no reads, I'm properly tilting too.

GAME #513970184: Texas Hold'em NL $2.00/$4.00 2007-03-29 21:19:01
Table "TURBO" Charleroi
Seat 1: jossi1 ($159.20 in chips)
Seat 2: jochen8 ($380.50 in chips)
Seat 4: raisinman1 ($283.86 in chips)
Seat 7: thrillhouse3 ($383.30 in chips)
Seat 9: hejhaj ($461.72 in chips) DEALER
Seat 10: bouba95 ($229.50 in chips)
bouba95: Post SB $2.00
jossi1: Post BB $4.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to raisinman1 [S2 D2]
Dealt to jochen8 [?????]
Dealt to jossi1 [?????]
jochen8: Call $4.00
raisinman1: Call $4.00
thrillhouse3: Fold
hejhaj: Call $4.00
bouba95: Fold
jossi1: Check

*** FLOP *** [H10 HQ H2]
jossi1: Bet $12.00
jochen8: Call $12.00
raisinman1: What do I do now?

What I did is in white:

raisinman1: Raise $48.00
hejhaj: Fold
jossi1: Raise $143.20
jochen8: Raise $250.40

raisinman1: Now what?

Opinions welcome.

[Scottieboy08]

I would raise to around 70-80 and call a shove.

edit: Just read the white part.

Sick hand, you may still be ahead but I would probably have to fold here raisin. TT is the hand i fear most, but KhJh could also be out there (but obv ur ahead of that). I think Jochen could well have TT from the limp UTG.

PS. Nice use of the white font mate, haven't used it yet

[Doc]

I just flat call that flop every time and hope to trip up on the turn. You've also got position on the other two players, so if they're trying it on they'll slow down on the turn.

If the player still to act raises and reopens the betting, then I'm only calling a small bet and only if I can close the betting. If several people like that flop then I'm probably behind and quite possibly drawing virtually dead if someone else has a bigger set.

[aliensyndm]

I don't think you can call really as surely someone is way ahead of you there. Realistically what hands are you beating ? Only draws. Two people aren't going all in with flush draws there I wouldn't think, perhaps one is but the other surely must have something. Too many times you're gonna be way behind here. Two people are willing to both put all their cash in on the flop......what are 2 hands they could both have that you are gonna be even 1 in 3 to win against ?

(Btw KJ hearts is waaaaay ahead of a set of 2s here Scottie)

Best case scenario really is someone has 2 pair and the other has a flush draw. You're around 1 in 3 there, so in the best case scenario you are only just getting the right odds. I don't believe both players would go all in on the flop with flush draws which is the only time you are actually much ahead.

There's way too much chance of being totally dominated there by 10 10 ....or even QQ. Sometimes people will limp with queens.


You called 4 dollars........do you want to be putting in 280 dollas on a maybe, couldbe, possibly situation where at best you are just getting the right odds and at worst you are waaaaaaay behind ?


Looking at the betting I'm trying to figure out possible hands that would match the pattern. Jossi has led to that board and then raised when raised. That's sounds to me like a pretty good hand. What would he lead with ? A small flush perhaps......or a set. If he was pish he may lead with the ace of hearts and shove all in on a draw but I can't see it.
Joechen flat called the $12 and then raised a re-raise. Hmmmm.....that's the kinda thing you would do with the nut flush. He realises someone has something (like a set) and wants to make sure he gets all the cash in whilst he's definitely ahead.

Of course if these players are crap alot of the above is not gonna be true but assuming they are half decent I reckon it's quite likely Jossi has a small flush or a set and Jochen has the nut flush. Could be total bollox but be interesting to see what they had.

[Scottieboy08]

FFS NOT KhJh, meant KJ (one heart) sry alien mistyped

[aliensyndm]

Yeah that's a possible hand if the player is a donk. I have to expect at least one of them to have a very strong hand though.
C'mon raisin we want to know !

[pistol984]

I'll give you 10 to 1 he pushed all in, came up against the nut flush but paired the boared and took down a monster pot.

[raisin man]

Looks like Pistol was right.

Super tilt remember.

jossi1: Bet $12.00
jochen8: Call $12.00
raisinman1: Raise $48.00
hejhaj: Fold
jossi1: Raise $143.20
jochen8: Raise $250.40
raisinman1: Allin $231.86
jochen8: Call $17.46
*** TURN *** [D3]
*** RIVER *** [C10]
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $729.92 Rake $3.00
raisinman1: wins $729.92

[mrmuzeman]

OK, no reads, I'm properly tilting too.

Youre such a tilt monster Raisin, you really have to curb that if you have aspirations of being truly profitable long run which I know you do. You can obliterate a weeks profit in 1 night being a tilt monster if you go really mental so sort it out dude! I dont think this is a tilt play though.

Its a tough one man. I mean when they both go 'at it' like that you know youre beat by 1 of them. One of them definitely has the flush, maybe both, maybe one has AQ with a Ah or A10 with a Ah, set of tens is a possibility as well as Q10. Jochen is the one who looks like he has the flush made anyway, he flatcalls then goes for it after action. The other guy could have any of the above sort of stuff.

Youre putting in about $230 more to win about $500 arent you. Well that is +EV IF all your housing up cards are live cos you are 2/1. They might not be though, set of tens has you royally fcuked and if Q10 is out there then you cant house up barring runners or the case 2. Basically that takes away a portion of your housing up chances and probably makes the play break evenISH in the long run more or less. I think its not really THAT much difference here or there whether you go all in or fold.

Id probably side on the folding just about because of the possibilities of 1010 and Q10. I play a set of tens through here though I reckon.

What did they have? You can check on your HH man cant you.

[mrmuzeman]

Best case scenario really is someone has 2 pair and the other has a flush draw. You're around 1 in 3 there, so in the best case scenario you are only just getting the right odds. I don't believe both players would go all in on the flop with flush draws which is the only time you are actually much ahead.

Youre easily better than 1 in 3 against 2 pair and a flush draw. Say Q10o and A8o with an Ah. You have to to dodge 9 hearts and 2xQ and 2x10 so thats 13 outs. Youre about 50/50 in that spot to win with a set of 2s and youd call all day long.

The Q10 possibility and 1010 possibility make this a fold I think but its not really awful to call here. I think it is a losing play long run but not heavily so.

QQ and 1010 are very interesting though if you had those here. Very tough those would be but I think id have to call and hate it.

[Doc]

QQ (and TT to a lesser extent) are more compelling calls alright.

I think flat calling the flop is a WAY better play here though. Your hand is very well disguised and it is becoming progressively harder for them to fold, while your implied odds easily justify a call. If you're up against the nut flush and fill up, you'll get paid off enough (and enough of the time) to make it +EV IMO.

[aliensyndm]

Yeah muze my misfired or something there, I dunno where I came out with that. Oh actually I was probably thinking of Q 10 + KJ with a heart. That would be a little over 1 in 3.

[raisin man]

Sorry guys,
I was buggering off on business yesterday so posted up the rest of the hand before I left. Forgot to stick up what they had.

Dealt to jochen8 [DJ HA]
Dealt to jossi1 [H7 HJ]

I really need to sort out my tilting. I messed up this week and only just broke even. Rakeback brought me up a couple of hundred.

Brought my BB/100 all the way down to 2 though.

[mrmuzeman]

Nice one Raisin so yeah fair play one of them has it like they should and the other had something else. You are 36% to win the hand there so you made a value call on this occasion. Thats why I was saying it isnt a bad call as some of the time all your housing outs are live. Its the times they are not which has you on the bad side and is the crux here.

[Doc]

I think the answer to the original question is to call every time. You definitely have the odds for that. Raising isn't a good play for the reasons muse (and others) outline above.