Tennis: Mens French Open Preview

[Mr Intensity]

Usually IMO this is the worst slam of the year, probably because I hate clay, but this year it seems a tad more interesting. There are a few guys in with a decent chance, but the market is dominated, rightly so, by the 'Big 3'.

BIG 3

Roger FEDERER (Best price 3.50 Ladbrokes). Everybody knows about Federer. World number 1 by a considerable margin. Clay is often considered to be his worst surface, even though by grew up playing on clay and has had considerable success on the surface in Masters Series events. The French open however, is a different story. After reaching the quarters in 2001, he has had 2 1st round defeats and a 3rd round exit last year to Kuerten. Certainly his track record here doesn't inspire confidence for the favourite backers. Federer has said that this tournament is his priority for the year, as it is the only Grand Slam that he has yet to win, so his motivation and focus are not in question, however, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough.

However, the bottom line is he does deserve to be one of the favourites, because he can do everything. That is the beauty of his game, no one else has ever been able to adapt to different surfaces and different opponents with the ease that Federer does. Generally he plays a pretty standard sort of clay court tennis, utilizing his defensive skills more than on other surfaces, but attacking even when just rallying, more than what the 'true' clay courters do. He is clearly in good form, after having a break he come back to win the Hamburg Masters without dropping a set (also beating two of his main rivals; Coria and Gasquet).

Rafael NADAL (Best price 5.00 Betfair). Nadal really has stepped up this year. A lot of people say that it started at the end of last year, beating Roddick on clay in the Davis Cup final. I don't agree with that, I think it started when he made the decision to play in South America on the clay earlier this year. The atmosphere and conditions over there are quite different and quite hostile compared to in Europe, and that was certainly a big decision to make as an 18 year old. In the first tournament down there, he reached the quarters before losing a strange match to Gaudio (Gaudio won 0-6 6-0 6-1 ). He then went on to win the tournaments in Costa Do Sauipe and Acapulco, beating some quality South American players (Canas, Puerta, Calleri etc). No one really took much notice of this I feel, until the hard court Masters Series event in Miami. Nadal played very well got through to the final, before losing to Federer after being 2 sets up (6-2 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 3-6 1-6). This really put Nadal on the map, and he has since won 3 tournaments in a row, including two Masters Series events (Monte Carlo and Rome). In that 3 tournament run, he has beaten pretty much all of his main French Open opposition (Gaudio, Gasquet, Coria twice, Ferrero and Canas). The only one that he hasn't beaten is Federer. Since the win in Rome he has taken time off with a hand injury, so we cannot be sure of his condition in the beginning of Roland Garros. He has also never played in the French Open, how will he react? Will he be able to go 7 5 set matches?

He's a lefty, which is strange, considering he is right handed. This shows in his service action. It is definately not fluid like it should be, and can prove to be a bit of a weakness. He struggles to get a lot of variety on the serve and only seems to be able to hit the 'kick' serve, cannot flatten it out and hit the big one. His game is based around his physical attributes. He is big and strong and his movement and defensive play is incredible. His ground strokes are very strong. He hits with a lot of topspin, which so long as it goes deep, is very effective, however, if it starts to drop short then he can be punished, especially against an aggressive baseliner (Federer, Gasquet). In the last couple of months he has been improving on it quite a bit, but can revert to type when things get tight I feel. However, he has proven, especially in the matches against Coria, that he can attack as well as defend which will be a great asset in this tournament.

Guillermo CORIA (Best price 4.50 Betfair) I feel the little Argentine has struggled a lot this year even on clay. Surprisingly, he hasn’t won a tournament since Monte Carlo last year, and that is disappointing given the success his fellow favourites have been having. However, he is still very capable on clay and should go far this year. I can’t see him going all the way tho, as his defensive style and more and more players who bring more offensively are up against him. The biggest factor against him is the amount of psychological baggage he is carrying coming into Roland Garros. In 2003 in the semi final of RG he failed badly going down in straight sets to the very unfancied Martin Ververk. Last year, as everybody knows about, he totally choked against Gaudio after being 6-0 6-3 4-1 ahead. This didn’t seem to affect him much at the time, as he reached the final of a grass court tournament shortly after, however, I feel it has had long lasting damage. He has also suffered defeats against his big rivals; losing to Nadal twice and Federer in the past 5ish weeks. He comes into the French is good form, having reached 2 finals and a Quarter Final in the last 3 Masters Series events, however, he hasn’t won a really big match for a long time.

Corias game is totally based on defence. His moves extremely well, and retrieves the ball better than pretty much anyone. His is also very tactically aware, for example, seemingly always using the drop shot at the right time. Cleverly, he always seems to drop shot off the forehand (most players usually use the backhand), as he has a double handed backhand and it is difficult to disguise the drop show on that side. Last year, when he was notching up 20-30 match winning streaks on clay, he also offered quite a bit of offence, any short ball was attacked and put away with great accuracy. This year, however, that hasn’t been the case. He doesn’t seem to have the same attacking options. This is done to either the shoulder surgery he had last year, or, more than likely, the new racquet he started using this year – he really should go back to the old one. His serve is often considered a weakness, and it is on a hard court, however, he knows how to use it well enough on clay so that it isn’t a weakness until he reaches the biggest matches when a few more ‘free points’ would be nice.


Those three are undoubtedly the 3 favourites, and rightly so, however, before making any decisions, you need to look at the draw, especially in a 128 man event.

THE DRAW

1ST QUARTER

Federer dominates this top part of the draw. The other big names are; Gonzalez, Moya, Nalbandian, Henman. Let us look at what Federers route to the semi final could be:

In the 1st round he plays a qualifier. This should be straightforward, I see no one who has qualifies posing a problem.

2nd round would be the winner of Almagro v Kohlschreiber. This really should be Almagro as Kohl has shown nothing of late. Almagro is very decent on clay, has very heavy shots which are effective (just ask Safin). He also appears to have a ‘big match mentality’. He could well come out firing against Fed. However, I can’t see him having the consistency or mental toughness to live with Federer for prolonged periods, so Fed should be through in straight sets.

3rd round will be most likely Gonzalez, if he can beat Llodra and either Christophe Rochus or a qualifier. Those should not be a problem for the huge hitting Chilean, so long has he keeps his head together. Federer v Gonzalez will be a big big 3rd round match, and is sure to be explosive. Gonzalez has a chance here, simply because he could blast Federer off the court. He nearly had Federer in Monte Carlo earlier this year, losing out 6-2 6-7 6-4. This match being best of 5 sets, I can’t see Gonzalez keeping a high enough level for long enough, but he is definitely good enough to take a set off Federer.

4th round will be whoever can come through; Hrbaty, Tipsarevic, Schalken, Kim, Martin, Moya or a qualifier. This is a really weak section of the draw. The only one capable of hurting Federer is Moya. But Moya has had shoulder problems recently and in general has been very poor this year. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Martin took him out in the first round. Any of these should really be straight sets for Federer.

Quarter final will be whoever can come out of the bottom section of the 1st quarter. Big names here are; Nalbandian, Ancic, Chela, Henman. I have a feeling for either Ancic or Henman to come through. Obviously Nalbandian is the biggest name on clay, he ‘should’ come through, but he has been very dodgy all year and is not one to rely on. Ancic, although definitely best suited to faster courts, has shown some decent stuff on clay this year, his best win probably against Gonzalez in Hamburg before going out credibly against Coria. Henman has a decent part of the draw, his first 3 opponents (possibly Starace, Horna, Chela) are all players who will not appreciate his unique brand of clay court tennis. Denfinate chance of a Nalbandian/Ancic v Henman in the 4th round. However, I don’t feel any of these guys will be able to touch Federer on clay.

So Federers potential route to the semis is: Qualifier, Almagro, Gonzalez, Hrbaty, Henman. That’s not bad for a Grand Slam on clay, his toughest match will probably be Gonzalez. Very very good chance of seeing Federer in the semi finals.

2ND QUARTER

A lot of action in this quarter, with serious title contenders Nadal, Gasquet and defending champion Gaudio. Let’s look at it from the top;

Nadal has an easy run in the first couple of round; Burgsmuller then most likely Malisse. Unless he hasn’t fully recovered, Nadal really shouldn’t lose more than 15-18 games in those 2 matches.

Then in the 3rd round he could face the future, Richard Gasquet. Gasquet would have to beat a qualifier then the winner of Mello/Wessels. Again, so long as the occasion doesn’t get to him, on form Gasquet should have no problems. Then we should be in store for an absolute cracker in the third round; Nadal v Gasquet. They met in the semi final of Monte Carlo, the tournament where Gasquet really stepped up to the big time, and Nadal won 6-7 6-4 6-3. I think the difference here will be experience, they are both 18, but Nadal has done so much more so far in his career. This will certainly help him in the tight situations, which are definitely likely to occur in this match up. It will be Nadals defensive qualities and the attacking shot making style of Gasquet. I have to say I normally go for the attacking player, and I do love Gasquets va va voom, but Nadal has to be the favourite simply based on experience and consistency. This could very well be a five set classic, and the worry is that physically whomever comes through may struggle later on.

In the 4th round, assuming Nadal makes it, he should have a pretty easy time. It is likely to be Grosjean, Monaco, Pavel or Stepanek. Grosjean has the most class but he has been dire all year. Lately he has picked up a bit, but you are better off backing him for Wimbledon. My pick to make it to the 4th round would be Stepanek. Simply because he’s bloody annoying, hasn’t got the game for clay but picks up some really quality results. Nadal or Gasquet should really have far too much for him, but he has a habit of causing problems and at least keeping it tight (he took a set off Nadal in Rome Quarter finals a few weeks ago).

Quarter final opponent will be interesting. Gaudio is the big name, and defending champion, however he has been in really strange form. He won the tournament in Estoril a few weeks ago, but has also had loses to Ferrer 6-0 6-1 and Christophe Rochus in 3 sets, and today in straight sets to Tommy Haas. I don’t know what to make of him, and also don’t know how he will cope with being the defending champion; I have a gut feeling he could get a little bit inspired. His manin dangers in this section are Ferrer and Verdasco. Both of these are a bit dodgy. Ferrer has been in the form of his life lately, but perhaps he has peaked a little soon and is now on a downward trend. Also Verdasco isn’t overly convincing, he has bundles of talent but I don’t feel he can keep it together for long enough to make a huge impression here. Overall, Gauido has to be the pick to make it to the quarter final to face Nadal. These guys have an interesting H2H, with Gaudio leading 3-1, including the strange 0-6 6-0 6-1 in Buenos Aries, but Nadal won the last meeting convincingly 6-3 6-0 in Monte Carlo. I think results demonstrates best the level these guys are at. Nadal has more defensively and offensively, and I can see Gaudio nicking a set, maybe even two, but Nadal has the class to come through.

Nadals potential route to the semi: Burgsmuller, Malisse, Gasquet, Stepanek, Gaudio. That’s not a good draw IMO, a lot of potential to be beaten or a least really pusehed which could cause his problems later on.

3RD QUARTER

Coria is the main man is this section and it looks a pretty good draw for him;

1st round he faces Kenneth Carlsen. Carlsen is hopeless on clay. This is really easy for Coria, shouldn’t have any problems. No analysis needed.

2nd round is either Ginepri or a qualifier. Ginepri is another who is really inept on clay. Don’t know who it is but most likely that it will be the qualifier that will come through. As I’ve already mentioned I don’t feel any of the qualifiers have enough to do any damage to the big guns, including qualifiers.

3rd round is one from; Melzer, Arthurs, Muller or Youzhny. Youzhny is the seeded player but I expect Melzer to come through. Youzhny has had injury problems, hasn’t played much this year, and when he has had tended to lose. Arthurs and Muller can put up some decent results but haven’t got the game to cut it on clay. Melzer has a decent clay game, good from the back, lot’s of talent and can come up with the big shots. Most of his problems are mental. He seems to be in good form lately, reaching the semis in Houston on the American clay and today is playing in the final of St Polten (lost in straight sets to Davydenko). He really should reach the third round, but really doesn’t have the weapons or game to trouble Coria at all.

Of the big names, Coria really does have the best draw in the early rounds.

4th round should see Coria come up against Haas or Davydenko. Those two both have decent passages through to the third round, where they should meet. Davydenko is often underrated and I fancy him to reach the fourth round. He is in great form, just reached the semis in Hamburg then won the tournament in St Polten. He is extremely quick around the court and has a very solid, baseline game. Haas has been in mediocre form but improved in the World Team Cup this week. Still expect Davydenko to come through, but can he hurt Coria? I doubt it, in order to beat Coria you have to blast him off the court, something I don’t feel Davydenko is capable of, although he will put up a decent fight.

Quarter final opponent for Coria is very interesting. This section of the draw has some big names including; Robredo, Kuerten, Ferrero and Safin. I’m pretty much ignoring this section, as I have no idea who will come through. Robredo or even perhaps Thomas Johansson could, they are solid players who can both put up good results. However, there are bigger names. Kuerten trying to come back from injury has yet to put in consecutive strong performances. However, he does seem to get inspired by Roland Garros, and it would be an Ivanisevic-esque story. Ferrero is now pretty much back to form, but not quite, he is still capable of putting in very dodgy performances. Safin is, well, Safin. Very very capable on clay but his head is still not with it. Ferrero also seems to have his number, having beaten him twice in recent weeks. I would have to say Ferrero is favourite to come though this section and face Coria in the quarters. Coria won the last meeting on clay at Monte Carlo about a month ago, but I feel Ferrero has improved quite a bit since then. This could be another classic, I think I’d have to go for Coria, probably in 5 sets, with the winner being a bit knackered for the next match.

Corias potential route to the semi: Carlsen, Qualifier, Melzer, Davydenko, Ferrero. That starts off easy but the games against Davydenko and Ferrero should be good and could take a lot out of Coria.

4TH QUARTER

This is the part of the draw I like. The big seeds are very very vunerable:

Andy Roddick. Roddick sucks on clay, dude. Can’t see him making too much progress, as his game doesn’t appear to have improved on clay this year. His record as Roland Garros is also very poor, in the last 2 years suffering first round defeats to Sargsian and Mutis – not exactly household names, even on clay. He has sounded positive in the build up, saying he only has himself to blame if he doesn’t go far and that it is a priority this year. I just can’t see it. First up he plays Tsonga, who is a French kid, suited to the faster courts, probably Roddick will come through that. Second and third round will be a different matter, he could face Acasuso and Volandri. Both of these are very good clay court players and I’d fancy either of then to take Roddick out.

Andre Agassi. Agassi simply isn’t a force of clay any more. His movement isn’t as good as it used to be and thus he doesn’t get enough balls back. Also he takes the ball so early he is susceptible to all the bad bounces you get on clay and this has always caused him problems. He reached the semis at Rome this year, which was a big surprise to me, but I can’t see him reaching that far here.

That leaves this quarter wide open. There are a few good clay courters in with a shot; Mathieu, Puerta, Massu, Volandri but my pick has to be Guillermo Canas. He is quality on clay, will run everything down, get everything back and can still produce the big shots and the offensive play when required. He is also the biggest fighter in the game which is great to have on your side. Good draw, first two rounds are Monfils and probably Montanes – can’t see either of these guys hurting Canas.

Third round could be a little tough. Most likely be the winner of Flick Lopez and Mathieu. Lopez has had some battles with Canas indoors and on grass, but on clay, Canas will get too much back and should force Lopez into too many errors. Mathieu is a similar story, he has a lot of talent but is prone to a lot of errors. All in all I can see these guys pushing Canas but I can’t see either of them beating him.

4th round could be Agassi, unless (and it is likely) he has been taken out already. Again can’t see Agassi really hurting him too much and Canas will get enough back to really expose Agassis lack of mobility.

Quarter final is wide open. Can’t see Roddick making it. As a hunch I would go for Filippo Volandri. He has a very strong clay court game, lovely backhand and knows how to get results. Him problem is with the serve. I can’t bear to watch it, his right leg is all over the place and it always looks like he is going to fall over. It also isn’t exactly effective, and can definitely be attacked. Should be a good match, I’m actually starting to think Volandri can do it. Volandri won the last meeting between these two in Monte Carlo earlier this year.

But what I also like about Canas is his record here the past few years. In 2001 he lost in the Quarter Finals against Hewitt, after being 2 sets up, that was a bit of a bad one, should have gone through, but as we all know Hewitt is class and a fighter on any surface. In 2002 he lost in the Quarter Finals against Costa in 5 sets, Costa went on and won the tournament. In 2003 he was out injured most of the year so didn’t play. In 2004 he lost in the first round in 5 sets to Gaudio, who went on to win the tournament. So it has tended to take class and the winner to beat Canas, and he always put up a huge fight.

Canas’ potential route to the semi: Monfils, Montanes, Mathieu, Agassi, Volandri. That actually isn’t a great draw, but it’s not bad.

Volandris potential route to the semi: Saulnier, Saretta, Acasuso/Roddick, Massu, Canas. I prefer that draw to Canas’, but this is definitely the section of the draw where the big price semi finalist is likely to appear.


THE SEMIS AND BEYOND:

This is what I feel the most likely semi final line up will be:

Federer v Nadal
Coria v Canas/Volandri

Federer – Nadal is likely to be a blockbuster. I just feel that Nadal will have a tougher route through and Federer will push him too much and have too much class when it gets tight. Federer is also the only real top player Nadal hasn’t got the better of during his great clay court run which could hurt him psychologically. Coming in with an injury also won’t help, we have no idea if he will be able to last 7 tough tough matches.

The other semi I’m not too sure about. I’m not sure if either of the 4th quarter guys have enough to take out Coria offensively unless he is tired from his route through or chokes.

Thus I feel the final will be played out between Federer and Coria. Far too much going against Coria here. He has choked in the past. Federer just gave him a beating in Hamburg and looks to have his number. Federer also hasn’t lost a final in god knows how long.

So after all of that I think the favourite will win!!


Suggested bets:

10pts Federer @ 3.50 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Canas @ 70.00 (Betfair)*
0.5pts Volandri @ 151.00 (WilliamHill)


*Suggested yesterday in another thread, I think the best available now is 50.00 – just about takeable, but try to find better,

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Edit: Wanted to keep all outright picks in the same post


Just had a look at Sporting Indexs Outright Index
(Winner = 100 pts, Runner-up = 70 pts, Lose Semi-Final = 50 pts, Lose Quarters = 33 pts, Last 16 = 20 pts. All others = 0.)

The one that interests me is Hrbaty at 2-4.

I like the Buy at 4. It's basically a bet at 5.00 for him to reach the 4th round, as in the 4th round he will most likely face Federer.

Hrbaty has been in good form in the clay court season, and all year to be honest. In the clay courts tournaments it has taken Ferrer (in form), Nadal, Agassi (in very windy conditions) and Gasquet to beat him. All of these guys are accomplished on clay and played good matches. Hrbaty has had some good wins, including against; Starace, Henman, Haas and Stepanek. I feel his clay court skills are often underrated and he is usually seen as more of a hard court player. We need to remember that he did reach the French Open semi final in 1999.

But let's look at who he would have to beat to reach the 4th;

First of all Tipsarevic. Hrbaty beat him in the Australian Open this year and I see no reason that there won't be a repeat. Tipsarevic is more of a quick court player and has shown nothing on clay. This year he is 1-1 in ATP events on clay and 3-4 in challengers, including defeats to Corretja, Behrend and Dlouhy twice. He doesn't move too well on the clay as of yet and don't have any real strategy and shouldn't pose any problems for someone with the experience of Hrbaty.

Next up will be Schalken or Vicente. Schalken has been suffering for a while now, he is really far off his level of 2 or 3 years ago. Clay has never been his surface and I would be surprised if he could beat Vicente. To be fair Vicente hasn't been in too bad form of late, but he is way way off the level that saw him in the worlds top 30 in 2000. His wins very been coming solely on the Challenger circuit and to beat Hrbaty would be a big big step up which I don't think he is capable of making. Hrbaty is also 3-0 H2H.

The third round is interesting. As I have already said, Moya is really struggling from both a shoulder injury and a general lack of form. I can't see him coming into this tournament with any kind of confidence and Martin has a great chance of taking him out in the first round. I quite expect Martin to make it through to the third round to face Hrbaty. Hrbaty leads the H2H 2-1 including a victory on clay. The way I see it, these two players both have similar grinding games, but Hrbaty has more to offer offensively and general penetration whilst rallying. Also Martin has been in good form but appears to be dipping slightly whilst I feel will give Hrbaty the edge.

I think Hrbaty has a very good chance of reaching the fourth round, and we are getting 5.00 for him to do so with basically a free shot on his fourth round match (probably against Federer)

Buy Hrbaty at 4 (Sporting Index) 1pt per point


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NOTE: Just seen where the qualifiers have been placed in the draw, and it doesn’t change any of my views.

Bloody hell, I need a lie down now…….

[Jay]

Excellent write up Mr I Must admit to not knowing anything at all about the tennis markets, but that info is much appreciated...Seems to me that Federer on his day can pretty much do what he wants so 3.50 seems a big price to me?

[kompressaur]

Bloody brilliant stuff Mr I. I'll be in the house for a week from tomorrow and need to look at my desk top publishing skills. I'll make a page up for this and put it up on the net somewhere. thats the quality TDP likes Mr I and it dont go unnoticed. I'll read it as i look at it but if you have any special pics or layout thoughts Mr I add them on the thread in GC 'read all about it'.

good luck and a i mention Mr I TDP is all about sharing and in future i hope to be able to offer money for posts like yours above as i want the people who take the time to post good stuff on TDP to be rewarded.

I'll go have a read as you could have copy and pasted that from THE SPORTING LIFE

[Mr Intensity]

Thanks Jay and Komp

Have a look around mate I didn't copy that from nowhere

Yeah Jay I think it's a good price especially considering the draw he, and Nadal and Coria have got.

I've no idea about pics or layout or anything. You want the style to be congruent throughout everything that TDP does so I think that's all up to you boss guys.

Now you just need to find someone who knows about women to do a preview for their event as I don't know a thing, obviously

[MickeyPaul]

Shit, I missed this. That must have taken a hell of a lot of work Mr I, cracking stuff. When does the tournament finish? Is that Federer at evs to win it I see? Good bet?

[Kiko]

I missed it also - nice write up!
What do you think of Canas chances as an outside bet?

[Mr Intensity]

Hey Mickey,

Tournament finishes on Sunday.

Yeah Fed at evens looks decent. It's all about the semi as he will be very short in the final. Assuming the best price against Nadal is 1.72 and is fair, evens means he would be 1.16 in the final. I can definately see him being shorter than that. Also fancy him to beat Nadal on Friday. Nadal has been pushed a little already by Grosjean and Ferrer whilst Federer still has a few gears to go. Anyway, should be a great match and I see Fed coming through.

And check out my 70.00 Canas still going!!! He is in the quarters and has a great draw. He next plays Puerta in an all Argentine match. Puerta is getting a lot of support, however, I would disagree. Canas has had a lot of rest after his long match against Mathieu due to Kiefer pulling out. Canas will run done so many balls and get so many back it will be a big test of Puertas fitness, which, to be honest, is quite poor. If he can come through that he will play the winner of Davydenko/Robredo which to be honest is a great draw for a Grand Slam semi final. Would fancy Canas to start os slight favourite against both of those and you never know he could be in the final!

PS. Really disappointed about Volandri. He played really well in his first two matches but injured his hand and had to pull out of his third round match against Acasuso. Bugger. C'est la vie.

PPS. Hrbaty's a cunt

[MickeyPaul]

Super stuff, Mr I. Sorry I was so late in popping in.

[Mr Intensity]

Hey Kiko,

Had Canas from the start!! Not sure about going in at the moment. Would you give him much of a chance against Nadal or Federer? What price could you lay him at IF he were to make the final? Would it be worth it after backing at 18.00? I think it would be better to have a go with him in the individual matches, the 1.6ish against Puerta is fair then if he goes through you should be able to get something like 1.7-1.83 in the semi.

[Mr Intensity]

Just realised I messed the staking up a bit didn't I?? :pat The potential profit on Federer is 25pts, I knew I would be looking to lay off Canas or Volandri and not let it ride all the way, so how should I have done the staking? Should I have made a ficticious price and would be looking to lay at and stake accordingly at the outset to make similar levels of profit to the Fed bet? If I were to lay Canas at the present prices the profit would only be 2-3pts, which is a lot less than the Fed potential.

I'm rubbish at this betting lark, I just like watching the tennis

[keemanan]

Magic stuff Mr I , an excellent read that and well done with getting the semi (oooeeer) spot on! Not to mention Canas.

[Mr Intensity]

Ah bugger. I knew it would take 5 sets to beat Canas and that's just what happened:

Puerta bt Canas 6-2 3-6 1-6 6-3 6-4

To be fair Puerta played a lot better than I expected, some excellent shot making. Only Fed left for me now :pat