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Old 17-03-2007, 13:27
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F1 07/08

I know theres a few folk about who like a bit of F1. Been looking forward to this for ages and it kicks off tonight .

Betting wise I love the match bets for the races. Had a lot of success last season with it. I didnt post many picks up as I was just starting punting on it but I put a few up at the end of the season. Going to get stuck in this season and I'll put my picks for each race in here just so its all in the same place. Last year there was a thread for the occasional race so if anyone has thoughts for any of the races feel free to fire it in here and maybe this can be the like the F1 thread.

Anyway going to do this properly this year and have a bank and everything . I wont be making millions but hopefully should be at least a little profitable.

OK so I havent really put much thought into size of bank/bets but lets say £300 starting bank and 1 point will £10. Bets will range from 1-5 points and be mostly singles. No doubt the odd double will appear now and again but cant see anything bigger than that.

I didnt see the qualifing last night so going to watch the replay today plus I can only find one site thats got match bet odds up so far (bet365). I'll be taking it easy for the first few races as theres a few unknows in the mix and by all accounts they are pretty capable.
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Old 17-03-2007, 17:55
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Re: F1 07

Great article from Sportinglife.com on each teams line up. I havent read the betting advice at the bottom yet but looks like its for season betting so pretty much irrelevant now but good summary of the teams.

Back in 1995, a precocious 10 year-old kart racer approached McLaren boss Ron Dennis at an awards ceremony and confidently announced that he would one day be a Formula One driver.

"Come back and see me when you've won some races," was the gist of Ron's reply.

So he did.



And next weekend, a little over 11 years after that first meeting, Lewis Hamilton will make his grand prix debut in one of Dennis' chrome Mercedes-powered machines, as team-mate to current world champion Fernando Alonso.

In the time in between, Hamilton has progressed seamlessly through the junior single-seater ranks, winning every full championship category he has entered, and making it impossible for his mentor to hold back from handing him a full-time race seat.

And for the British press at least, the young McLaren driver will personify the new era in which F1 finds itself following the retirement of seven-time world champion Michael Schumacher at the end of last season.



Schumacher's shadow will inevitably continue to loom over the paddock in the near future but with young drivers like Alonso - now universally recognised as the world's best driver - and the likes of Kimi Raikkonen, Jenson Button and Hamilton's fellow rookies Robert Kubica and Heikki Kovalainen, the future of the sport is in safe and exciting hands.

The switch of Raikkonen to Ferrari as Schumacher's replacement, and of Alonso to McLaren only adds to the intrigue ahead of the new season.

Will Kimi adapt into the "circle of fear" - the term coined by former technical director Ross Brawn to describe the trust and interdependence culture of the team's core members - or will Felipe Massa steal a march on his team-mate and get the team to focus their strength behind his challenge?

While there is no predetermined number one driver for the first time in over a decade at the Maranello team, the engineers will inevitably focus their efforts on the man who is quickest.

Pre-season testing of the radical new Ferrari has indicated that the incumbent is more comfortable in the car than the new boy, but Raikkonen is the ante-post championship favourite with the bookies for a good reason - his immense level of natural speed.

Alonso will also have to adapt to new surroundings, moving from what Sir Jackie Stewart astutely termed the "corner shop" mentality at Renault into a more formal, corporate structure at McLaren.

Will this set-up stifle the Spaniard and indeed will the new McLaren be able to cope with Alonso's unique, aggressive driving style as comfortably as the versatile, forgiving Renaults in which he won two world titles?

Meanwhile Kovalainen, who takes the champion's seat at the Anglo-French team, will face pressure to outperform Giancarlo Fisichella, who himself appears to be a sitting duck after two years of being consistently outperformed in a world championship winning team.

And after his breakthrough win at the Hungaroring last season, will the new Honda allow Button to make the step up from regular podium contender to genuine championship challenger?

The early signs from Brackley are not promising but his team were able to turn around their season after a poor start last year - expect the Englishman to extract the maximum from his machinery once again.

On the technical side, after countless regulation changes over recent years, there is some welcome stability for the engineers and bean counters at the teams.

Indeed, engine development has been 'frozen' and a limit of 19,000 rpm is in force, meaning that the boffins must turn their attentions away from maximising revs and power, concentrating instead on refining electronic mapping, driveability and efficiency.

And the withdrawal from the sport of Michelin means that the tyre war has now come to an end; Bridgestone's new 'control tyre' brings an end to bespoke compounds and constructions, with each team being handed the same two compounds at each race weekend, both of which must be used at some point during the race.

Ferrari's close relationship with the Japanese firm could be beneficial in the short-term but Toyota claim the new tyre is so different to the 2006 equivalent that the data they accrued last season is effectively worthless.

With so many changes at the sharp end of the grid and so many different variables involved, the new campaign looks set to be far from predictable.

Let's analyse each team individually and assess their chances.



McLaren

The 2006 season was little short of an embarrassment for the Woking team, who failed to win a grand prix for the first time in 10 years. The changes to the chassis and engine regulations and the reintroduction of tyre changes wrongfooted the team, while drivers Kimi Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya wanted to pursue divergent development paths on their cars, which cost time and resources. Both drivers were disillusioned throughout the season - Raikkonen knew he was headed for Ferrari for 2007, and Montoya, already unhappy with the car's handling characteristics and fully aware that the team would be focused around new signing Fernando Alonso for the following season, jumped ship to American stock car racing halfway through the year.
The move to a control tyre for this season could swing the balance back towards McLaren's design philosophy, although recent testing evidence suggests that the new MP4-22 is slightly harder on its rear tyres than some of its rivals. Nevertheless, the car has proved quick and reliable in the hands of both Alonso and new boy Lewis Hamilton, who appear evenly matched for pace in pre-season testing. Alonso is certain to spearhead the team's title challenge but Hamilton has impressed the engineers hugely so far - if the young Englishman can keep his head and prove competitive, the points will rack up.

While the car looks a fraction of a second off the pace-setting Ferraris on the available evidence, there could be more potential locked in the McLaren than the Italian challenger. Ferrari have had a close and symbiotic relationship with Bridgestone for the best part of a decade and certainly start with an advantage over the rest of the grid, especially those who have recently been forced to switch from Michelin. As the engineers begin to fully understand the characteristics of the tyres in a range of competitive situations, more time may be found relative to their rivals. Alonso's proven speed and racecraft will ensure that he will be a title contender if the car is competitive over a season, while the potential Hamilton has shown in testing and in junior formulae mark him out as a future racewinner.

Strengths: The best driver in the world alongside a fast, committed young team-mate; a good base car engineered by some of the pitlane's most accomplished talents.

Weaknesses: Team hasn't won a world title this century, will need to sharpen up operationally and strategically to deliver for Alonso.

Ante-post odds: Alonso 51/20 (Expekt), Hamilton 25/1 (Premierbet, BetFred); McLaren 13/5 (Stan James).

Verdict: The championship is within reach for Alonso if the car is reliable throughout the season; Hamilton will live up to his potential.



Renault

As winners of both the drivers' and constructors' world titles in each of the last two years, the principal aim for the team has to be to retain their trophies. But they will have to manage without the brilliance of Alonso, whose defection to McLaren has enabled the team to bring in highly-rated Heikki Kovalainen alongside Giancarlo Fisichella for this season. Finn Kovalainen has been waiting in the wings for some time, spending last season as Renault's third driver and principal tester as he prepared for entering the big stage as a full-time race driver.

His CV, which includes finishing as runner-up to Williams man Nico Rosberg in the first GP2 season in 2005 and winning the Race of Champions final against Sebastien Loeb later that year, is suitably impressive. And Flavio Briatore, the team principal who poached Michael Schumacher from Jordan and introduced Mark Webber and Fernando Alonso into F1, rarely makes a bad call when it comes to promising young drivers. The debutant needs to match and then outpace Fisi if he is to have credible championship aspirations though - the amiable Italian is a match for the best on his day but has never attained the consistency required for a season-long challenge. The drivers seem evenly matched so far but chief of engineering Pat Symonds conceded that the team's expectations are lower than they were at the start of last season. "We are being realistic about our performance at the moment," he said recently. "We know we are not in the same position as we were twelve months ago."

If Kovalainen can get the engineers working for him in the same way that Alonso managed, the squad's collective nous and winning pedigree will ensure that they are able to provide first-classsupport. And if the team can get on top of the new Bridgestone control tyre and close the deficit to Ferrari, both drivers should be capable of picking up regular podiums. One concern is the reshuffle in management which will see strategy maestro Symonds cede some of his responsibility on the pit wall, while Alonso's former race engineer Rod Nelson has been poached by Williams.

Strengths: A top-class and experienced highly experienced design and engineering team with proven title-winning credentials.

Weaknesses: Alonso is impossible to replace; Symonds' new role may mean their renowned tactical acumen is compromised.

Ante-post odds: Kovalainen 28/1 (Stan James), Fisichella 33/1 (General); Renault 14/1 (Sporting Odds).

Verdict: If Kovalainen can get in the groove and outpace Fisi, the Finn may find himself in the top three by season's end.



Ferrari

The F2007 has been setting the test tracks alight in pre-season, with the understated Felipe Massa appearing to have a small but significant edge over big-money signing Kimi Raikkonen at the Maranello team so far. Raikkonen is struggling to get to grips with the engine characteristics of the car, while his seating position and the performance of the Bridgestone tyres are also causing him concern. Meanwhile, Massa, who already has an affectionate relationship with the team, has found the new machine much to his liking and has been able to set the pace throughout most of the winter.

Fears over the repercussions of the departure of Ross Brawn and Michael Schumacher from the core of the team have been dispelled for now, with the reshuffled technical department looking strong. Chief designer Aldo Costa's new car is a radical departure from the team's recent models and goes against the prevailing design consensus within the paddock. The team have moved away from their traditional and highly-successful 'single-keel' suspension set-up, preferring a twin-keel arrangement which has aerodynamic benefits but is thought to be less structurally sound and lacks the versatility of the old design.

Typically, most teams have been keen to shift forwards their car's centre of weight distribution in order to move the load away from the relatively high-wearing, low-grip rear tyres, towards the supposedly grippier and more durable fronts. But Ferrari, with their unparallelled knowledge of Bridgestone's tyre constructions, have instead surprisingly sought to lengthen the wheelbase - ostensibly in order to maximise the effectiveness of the car's aerodynamics - despite this shifting the weight distribution rearwards. Nevertheless, this unconventional approach appears to have paid dividends, suggesting that Ferrari's were able to draw upon data from Bridgestone that their rivals were lacking.

Whether the loss of Brawn and Schumacher will compromise Ferrari's focus and professionalism in the long run is also a question worth considering. Raikkonen is not the sort of driver who will pore over reams of data after hours or offer himself up for extra testing miles in the manner of Schumacher. As long as Ferrari are prepared to accept the Finn's less 'hand-on' approach and work to his strengths, the relationship should work - but if things start to go wrong, brace yourself for fireworks.
Strengths: The fastest car out of the box and a quick driver pairing. The bulk of the team that won six constructors' titles in a row are still in place.

Weaknesses: No Schumacher or Brawn. Neither driver can adequately replace Schumacher but how will the team react to Kimi's attitude if things go pear-shaped?

Ante-post odds: Raikkonen 2/1 (fav) (Sporting Odds, Paddy Power), Massa 11/4 (General); Ferrari 8/11 (fav)(Blue Square, totesport).

Verdict: The team will get off to a flyer, but if their rivals start to catch up, the new operational structure may be tested.



Honda

Intrinsic aerodynamic problems meant last year's Honda lacked rear downforce at the start of the season. But by the end, Jenson Button was the form driver, scoring more points than any of his rivals over the last half-dozen races, a sequence that included an emotional win in Hungary. Entering the closed season expectations were high at the Brackley-based team, but the new RA107 has so far proved a difficult beast for JB and his team-mate Rubens Barrichello to tame. The fundamental problem seems to be the car's stability under braking and turn-in, which robs the drivers of confidence at the corner entry. Button is also struggling to get to grips with the new Bridgestone tyres, which appear more suited to former Ferrari man Barrichello's style.

The 'eco-branded' livery of the otherwise conservative-looking car may have stolen the headlines upon its launch a couple of weeks ago but it's the handling shortcomings which are concerning the team members at present. Barrichello insists they are only "0.5 seconds to one second behind Ferrari", but the evidence from the recent Bahrain test suggests the difference is actually over a second - a deficit which may see the car struggle to make the top ten shoot-out at Melbourne next weekend. The team have the personnel to turn things around, but the pressure is on.

Strengths: Button is arguably the third-best driver in the field and has shown he can deliver when he has the right equipment.

Weaknesses: Team likely to be playing catch-up in the early races; lead driver is struggling to get a feel for the car.

Ante-post odds: Button 25/1 (Sporting Odds, Stan James), Barrichello 100/1 (Bet365, Sporting Odds); Honda 33/1 (Sporting Odds).

Verdict: Button can be relied upon to bring the best from the package, but the team are starting the season on the back foot.



BMW Sauber

After doing a brilliant job of keeping a low profile whilst cleverly inching up on their rivals last season, Mario Thiessen's team exploded into prominence by blitzing the opposition in the opening winter test sessions at Jerez early this year. Since then though, the engineers have been kept busy solving a number of frustrating mechanical failures, which has resulted in a compromised pre-season for the Swiss-German team. But the management remain confident that the gremlins can be overcome and the expectation is for the team to be at the sharp end by the time Melbourne rolls around. Developing the car throughout the season will not be a problem - BMW inherited from Sauber the most advanced windtunnel in the sport, whilst ongoing advances in their computational fluid dynamics software make them one of the best-equipped teams in the pitlane when it comes to aerodynamic expertise.

Thiessen made his ruthlessly progressive philosophy apparent during last season when engineering Jacques Villeneuve's exit from the team to make way for Robert Kubica, a move that enabled the Polish driver to make his mark as one of the most exciting young talents in the sport. Kubica's impression has been such that some bookies have him listed as joint fourth favourite to win the title. Whether the former World Series by Renault champion can live up to the hype remains to be seen, but a handful of stirring performances in his half-dozen F1 races to date - including a podium at Monza in only his second race - suggests he is a driver to keep a close eye on. BMW's original blue-eyed boy, Nick Heidfeld, has been rather pushed out of the limelight over the past sixmonths, but the understated German remains an highly competent driver. Heidfeld is used to being overlooked (he was lined up for a McLaren race seat in 2002 until then-Sauber team-mate Kimi Raikkonen jumped the queue) but the former Williams man has never been one for the spotlight - he will extract the best from the car and will prove a solid benchmark for his inexperienced team-mate.

Strengths: Huge resources and technological depth; enviable driver line-up.

Weaknesses: At present, reliability. Also do they have what is required operationally to be credible championship challengers?

Ante-post odds: Heidfeld 40/1 (General), Kubica 50/1 (Sporting Odds); BMW Sauber 25/1 (Ladbrokes).

Verdict: Everything is in place at Hinwil bar experience of a title tilt - expect podiums to provide bright spots along the learning curve.



Toyota

Toyota's mantra seems to be "if it's not broke, don't fix it". And although nothing within the Cologne outfit can be described as 'broke' (in any sense), a few things clearly need fixing. The fortunes of the team have been in decline since early 2005 when Jarno Trulli managed to live with the pace-setting Renaults during the early part of the season. That car, the TF105, was caught and passed by most of the field, and its successors suffered with handling imbalances and a front end which did not suit Trulli's driving style. A podium finish for Ralf Schumacher at Melbourne last year disguised the car's shortcomings and the team responded by sacking their forthright technical director, Mike Gascoyne, and replacing him with former Michelin man Pascal Vasselon.

The new regime benefited from the Bridgestone resurgence to post some respectable performances towards the end of last year but the team's latest iteration, the TF107, has been found wanting in pre-season testing. Trulli, who partners Schumacher for the third consecutive year, could not pinpoint the machine's deficiencies: "It's a general problem with handling, grip and consistency," he lamented, adding, "I honestly can't believe the car is this bad."

Gascoyne claimed that interference from his bosses in Japan made it impossible to carry out his work, and it seems that culture still exists within the company. While teams like Renault are allowed to operate independently of their parent company, Toyota is run along a more corporate style. This means that, despite the resources available to the team, they are less able to make snap short-term decisions and operate reactively - something that is crucial in the fast-developing world of F1.

Strengths: Vasselon and aero chief Mark Gillan are two of the strong links in the team structure.

Weaknesses: Political interference compromises the management's ability to get things done. Drivers occasionally appear to be in the comfort zone.

Ante-post odds: Trulli, Schumacher both 150/1 (Stan James, Sporting Odds); Toyota 150/1 (Sporting Odds).

Verdict: The Real Madrid of F1. Toyota have plenty of cash to chuck around but will end up underperforming in midfield again.



Red Bull Racing

"We're just slow on the first lap and slow on long runs," a candid Mark Webber told Autosport last week, while team principal Christian Horner admitted his men were "about four weeks behind where we'd ideally like to be." And far from being given wings by their team bosses, Webber and his team-mate David Coulthard have been given bruised backsides by the new car's cramped cockpit dimensions. Nevertheless, there is undoubtedly some potential in the new RB3, a car penned by experienced boffin Adrian Newey, the creator responsible for the machines driven to worldtitles by Nigel Mansell, Damon Hill, Jacques Villeneuve and Mika Hakkinen. In short, if it's beaten Schuey, it's been designed by Newey.

Throughout his career, however, Newey has been indulged by his employers - for the last 15 years he has worked with the finest aerodynamicists, technical directors and engineers in the pitlane, and the world's best drivers have driven his machinery. But Red Bull Racing (formerly Jaguar, formerly Stewart), are essentially a young team not used to competing right at the front of the grid. And while it may be unfair to label Newey's designs as fragile, his groundbreaking creations for Williams and McLaren certainly went through some teething problems before they established their dominance over the field. Whether Red Bull are equipped to extract the maximum from what could turn out to be a thoroughbred racing machine, remains to be seen. The engine, sourced from Renault's title-winning set-up at Viry-Chatillon, has proved the most efficient and driveable unit on the grid over the last couple of years and is unlikely to prove a weak link this season.

The team's technical director Mark Smith and chief designer Rob Marshall both have recent experience with Renault, while aero chief Peter Prodromou worked with Newey at McLaren, so the team is strong. The driver line-up is experienced and while they have their critics, both should be capable of winning races if the opportunity were to arise. The question marks surround the organisational structure of the team and whether they have the capacity and experience to extract the most out of their new car.

Strengths: An innovative chassis mated to the best V8 around; talented staff and experienced drivers.

Weaknesses: Team made a mess of their engine collaboration with Ferrari last term - there can be no excuses for unprofessionalism this year.

Ante-post odds: Webber, Coulthard both 300/1 (Sporting Odds); Red Bull Racing 250/1 (Sporting Odds).

Verdict: If the team can unlock the full potential of their chassis, podiums beckon. At the moment they are flattering to deceive.



Williams

Sir Frank's outfit have retained a sizeable chunk of paddock goodwill throughout the course of their recent slump and any revival of the team's fortunes would be well received by the F1 fraternity. And after three largely fallow years for the Grove-based squad the early signs are promising. The decision to commit to testing in Barcelona rather than join the rest in Bahrain means their pace is slightly harder to quantify, but the indications are that things are going largely according to plan. Crucially, reliability has improved markedly from last year's efforts.

Technical director Sam Michael has used the word 'respectable' to describe their performance target for the three flyaway races, so drivers Nico Rosberg and Alex Wurz will be looking to sneak into the qualifying shoot-out and get to the end of the races in Australia, Malaysia and Bahrain - and hopefully score some points. Their engine partnership with Toyota should ensure that the team will not be left behind during the course of the season, although the free exchange of technology between Grove and Cologne could end up benefitting Toyota as much as Williams - witness the state-of-the-art seamless-shift gearbox that Toyota have procured from the partnership.

If the target is to beat fellow 'independents' Red Bull, Toro Rosso and Spyker, and mix it with the works Japanese entries, the early signs look promising. But Rosberg will need to call on all his experience from an up-and-down debut year and keep his mistakes to a minimum. And the engineering staff, which now includes Fernando Alonso's former race engineer Rod Nelson, needto keep their side of the bargain and provide the drivers with a substantially more reliable car than in 2006.

Strengths: Fruitful testing campaign means the team go into the season well-prepared.

Weaknesses: Three seasons of underachievement can't have been good for team morale.

Ante-post odds: Rosberg, Wurz both 300/1 (Sporting Odds); Williams 250/1 (Sporting Odds).

Verdict: Improved reliability should ensure Williams have a fighting chance of mixing it with the Honda and Toyota works squads.



Scuderia Toro Rosso

There are at least two teams who claim that the new STR-02 is in contravention of the rules because it is effectively a Red Bull RB3 with a different paint job. But then last year's Toro Rosso - itself a resprayed RB1 with a Cosworth V10 bolted on the back - was declared legal because it was designed not by Red Bull, but by a subsidiary of Jaguar Racing, who still held the intellectual property right to the creation. And this year's Toro Rosso - a resprayed RB3 with a Ferrari V10 bolted on the back - is also claimed to have been designed by an independent company, one called Red Bull Technology. Confused? So is everyone else.

Basically, because the RB3's designer Adrian Newey and his colleagues are employed by Red Bull Technology (the design and manufacturing arm of the company) and not Red Bull Racing (the world championship entrant), they are judged to be an independent third party and are free to supply cars to both Red Bull Racing and Toro Rosso within the framework of the regulations. But Williams and Spyker both claim, with some justification, that this set-up is merely exploiting a loophole in the regulations and they say that if Toro Rosso are allowed to score world championship points, the future for truly independent teams (those who design and build their own chassis), is under threat. In any case a legal challenge is likely and the cars may be deemed in contravention of the rules by the stewards at Melbourne. In the long run, however, it seems highly likely that the team will be allowed to compete this season.

Whether the team can achieve anything is doubtful in any case - if Red Bull Racing are struggling to get the most from Newey's complex chassis, it seems unlikely that a revamped Minardi team will be able to unlock its hideen potential. Add in the complications of a hotter-running Ferrari engine instead of more efficient and tighter-fitting Renault and it appears that the team will have a job on their hands. Drivers Vitantonio Liuzzi and Scott Speed have yet to show anything but flashes of pace and were often spotted pointing the wrong way and skating across gravel traps last year. Both are in the last chance saloon, and as the unfortunate Christian Klien can testify, Red Bull are not shy of replacing drivers during the season.

Strengths: A chassis with decent potential; former Cosworth engineer Alex Hitzinger is a great signing as technical director.

Weaknesses: Ferrari V8 may not be suited to chassis; average drivers; team may not even be eligible to score points.

Ante-post odds: Liuzzi, Speed both 1000/1 (Sporting Odds); Scuderia Toro Rosso 750/1 (Sporting Odds).

Verdict: Set to struggle - expect the parent company to take out their frustration on one or both of the drivers.



Spyker

Expectations are very much in check at the team formerly known as Jordan. Mike Gascoyne returned to head up their technical department and responded by penning a conservative development of last year's Midland M16 (itself loosely based on the 2005 EJ15). Gascoyne has a small development budget to work with but is keen to use it efficiently. The late takeover ofMidland by Spyker and the switch to Ferrari engines from Toyota did not aid stability within the team, but they have access to two windtunnels and their engineering staff include technical director James Key and aero chief John McQuilliam - highly competent staff that will be able to get the best from a limited budget.

The team retains lead driver Christijan Albers but all the excitement surrounds the recruitment of young German Adrian Sutil who impressed the team hugely during his stint as a third driver last season. The youngster, who won the Japanese F3 title last year, partnered Lewis Hamilton in the F3 Euroseries in 2005 and although the Brit pipped him to the title, Hamilton speaks very highly of him. Testing times indicate that Sutil may have a slight edge on his Dutch team-mate, both of whom were lapping around a second off the Williams cars around Barcelona.

Gascoyne recently commented that "Adrian has got six months of driving around at the back, keeping his nose clean and learning his trade before he earns the media's full attention," which neatly sums up the team's ambitions for the early part of the year, but don't rule out the orange cars inching their way up the grid once the European season gets under way.

Strengths: A tightly-knit tech team and a highly-rated young driver.

Weaknesses: Small budget, a rushed pre-season, a rather basic chassis.

Ante-post odds: Albers, Sutil both 1000/1 (Bet365, Sporting Odds); Spyker 750/1 (Blue Square, Sporting Odds).

Verdict: Will probably start the season at the back, but some innovative thinking from Gascoyne could give the old Jordan boys a leg-up.



Super Aguri

Pretty much everything written above about Toro Rosso and Red Bull Racing is applicable to Super Aguri and Honda. The Japanese team is effectively a customer Honda satellite, based in Tokyo but working from the former Arrows base in Leafield. The 2007 challenger, labelled the SA07, is expected to be a clone of Honda's RA107 when it is launched in the build-up to the Australian Grand Prix this week. As with Toro Rosso, Williams and Spyker will contest the car's eligibility, so it remains to be seen what the outcome will be.

The team was a credit to itself throughout 2006, performing near-miracles with a car based around a four year-old chassis, eventually claiming a top ten finish at the Brazilian Grand Prix, where Takuma Sato and his then-team-mate Sakon Yamamoto set the race's ninth- and seventh-fastest laps respectively. Sato is joined by former Honda test driver Anthony Davidson for this season in what looks a stronger line-up than last term. If the team get away with racing the Honda chassis, the form shown last year suggests some good results could be on the cards. The fact that the 'interim' car has run only limited test miles is a concern, as is the fact that the definitive 2007 machine has not yet even been unveiled, but the outfit proved last year that they can achieve against the odds.

Sato had a reputation for being erratic while at Honda but while his final season alongside Button was an embarrassment, the Japanese driver has shown he can be incredibly quick when the car is to his liking. Davidson thoroughly deserves his break and will need to match and then outperform the man around whom this team is built. That won't be an easy task.

Strengths: A sound base chassis, good team work ethic and two quick drivers.

Weaknesses: Are way behind schedule at present; legal complications threaten to overshadow preparation.

Ante-post odds: Sato, Davidson both 1000/1 (Sporting Odds); Super Aguri 1500/1 (Blue Square).

Verdict: Will inevitably struggle in the flyawayraces but have shown they can develop a car effectively. Expect incremental improvements.



CONCLUSION:
Ferrari clearly have the upper hand at present and it's difficult to argue with Kimi Raikkonen's position at the top of the ante-post market.
Despite Felipe Massa's notable efforts in pre-season testing, it remains a fact that the Brazilian was around half a second off Michael Schumacher's pace throughout last season.
He may have matured into a fast and credible driver but both his wins in 2006 were achieved after Schumacher's race was compromised, and he was frequently beaten by Alonso when Massa had the quicker car.
Raikkonen's natural speed means he should have the legs of his team-mate over the course of the season, and if he doesn't, questions will have to be asked about the Finn's approach and his ability to lead a championship-winning team.
How the dynamic between Ferrari and Raikkonen will develop if and when things start to go wrong will be the determining issue this season - after years of working with the Schumacher, the most committed driver in the history of the sport, the team will have to learn to deal with a man who will never demonstrate the same levels of dedication.
And without Ross Brawn to steer the ship, the relationship might, just might, implode in the same way that the affinity between Raikkonen and McLaren disintegrated.
But if we're not convinced about Massa and Raikkonen, can we be backing Alonso at around 5/2?
Not at the moment.
The neat-looking McLaren appears to be about a quarter or a third of a second shy of the pacesetting Ferrari at the moment, so we expect the Italian team to sail to victory at Melbourne this weekend.
And the long, sweeping corners at Sepang and Sakhir in the subsequent events should also prove well-suited to the long-wheelbase F2007.
So by the time the teams return to Europe in mid-May, Massa and Raikkonen could have established a lead at the top of the standings, meaning Alonso might have been pushed right out in the betting.
Remember, Schumacher was matched at 37/1 on Betfair immediately after his retirement in the third race of the season at Melbourne last year.
So we should bide our time and concentrate on some of the other runners.
First up, Lewis Hamilton should be supported on IG's championship index.
Naturally there are bound to be question marks over the debutant but everything we have seen of him so far indicates that he can deal with the pressure.
His pace is simply not in doubt - he has regularly matched his more experienced Spanish team-mates Alonso and Pedro de la Rosa in pre-season testing, while anyone who saw him waltz to the GP2 title last year will be aware of his fearsome natural talent.
His mentality is as strong as is possible for an F1 rookie - his links to McLaren have produced pressure throughout his racing career and he has delivered every time, further strengthening his resolve in the process.
And it is no exaggeration to claim that his racecraft is awe-inspiring.
His displays in carving through the field at Silverstone and Istanbul last season were breathtaking, so any suggestion that he may be found out in wheel-to-wheel combat can be dismissed.
He will make mistakes during the season but there is no question that his talent should ensure that he is at the sharp end of the grid - and experience can only make him quicker.
Buy him at 13 on the index which rewards 60 points for the champion, 40 for the runner up, then 30, 20, 10 and 5 for the rest of the championship's top six.
Raikkonen managed sixth place in his first year at McLaren in 2002 but his year was characterised by appalling luck and reliability; the 2007 car should be quickerand more trustworthy.
Fellow Brit Jenson Button could be in for a much tougher season than his compatriot though.
The Honda currently appears to be battling with Williams to be the fifth-fastest car on the grid, well behind Ferrari, McLaren, BMW-Sauber and Renault.
This would be only good enough for 11th to 14th positions on the grid in Australia as things stand, so to vault into the top three against the might of the other manufacturers is a tough ask.
Honda are planning a new aero package in time for the Malaysia Grand Prix which may see them claw back some time.
But as things stand Button could find himself scrabbling in midfield in the opening rounds - Spreadex look to have pitched his points quote too high, so sell at 45.
Reliability is a concern over at BMW Sauber, so rather than getting long of Nick Heidfeld or Robert Kubica's points and risking a big downside, try an audacious each-way bet on the Pole at 50/1.
Kubica impressed hugely in the six races he campaigned for the team at the end of last term, finishing on the podium at Monza and consistently catching the eye in the other rounds.
He is still raw and liable to make errors, but if he can get a handle on the Willi Rampf-designed F1.07 and it proves to be reliable, Kubica could be ideally placed to take advantage of any slip-ups by rival teams.
At place terms of one-fifth the odds, Sporting are effectively offering 10/1 for him to finish among the top three drivers, as long as the 50/1 win half of the bet is part of the deal, which is a fair speculative bet.
Finally, put your trust in two of the minnows of the sport to surprise the bigger teams on occasion.
Adrian Sutil has settled well into the Spyker team by all accounts, the German impressing his employers immediately.
He will face a tough task to pick up points in what could initially be the weakest car in the field, but Sporting have perhaps underestimated the rookie slightly.
It only takes a topsy-turvy wet race, a multi-car pile-up or a handful of disqualifications for runners who would normally be competing outside the top ten to find themselves in points-paying positions.
And it's not beyond the realms of possibility that a rival team could poach the youngster at some point later on in the season if he is judged to have serious potential.
Take a chance and buy his points at 1.5.
Taking of potential, Super Aguri were the unsung heroes of the 2006 campaign, with their four year-old design embarrassing Spyker, Toro Rosso and Red Bull Racing by the end of the season.
This time round they should have access to a kosher 2007-spec Honda, the same chassis as the one the works team are currently struggling to get the best out of.
The team may be way behind schedule but they have already proved their aptitude for developing a car during a season.
Their points are very cheap to buy with IG, who will accommodate at just 5.
Sporting Index will sell at 6 at the time of writing, so the arb will likely close up pretty sharpish; be prepared to take 6 if you miss the boat.
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Old 17-03-2007, 18:37
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Re: F1 07/08

Just doing a bit of research after watching the replay of the qualifing. Lewis Hamilton looks the business and put a lot of pressure on Alonso throughout the qualifing. It looks like Ferrari have a pretty decent advantage for the start of the season car wise as they fully understand the tyres that have now been forced on all the teams, Renault seem to be suffering most from this and its going to take them time to understand exactly how they work. Honda looked gimped again and BWM look like they have carried their form from testing on to actual race conditions. Robert Kubica is my dark horse to win a few races this year, thought he was great at times last season.

I wasnt planning on getting too heavily involved in the first few races but I have spotted a few bets I like the look of starting with.

kubica to bt fisi 2.1 @ bet365
Lots of pressure this year on Fisichella to step up as the new team leader with Alonso gone. Hes been in F1 for a long time but hes just not good enough, hes consistent but consistently not good enough and was outpaced by Alonso constantly. If fisi doesnt get a great start then theres Webber and two toyotas right behind him.

hamilton to bt fisi 1.57 @ Blue Square
if Hamilton can get past Heidfield early on then McLaren will be 2-3 behind Raikkonen with the two BMWs behind them, its going to be tough (if not impossible) for fisi to get past Hamilton in that situation.

M Webber to bt H Kovalainen 1.83 @ ladbrokes

I dont understand this price. Webber starts 7th and Kovalainen is all the way back in the middle of the pack in 13th. Theres a lot of cars between them. Kovalainen was the 3rd driver for Renault last year so he knows what its about but Webber is a good driver and has a few years experience now, he was unlucky with reliability last year and with a better car could have had some decent results plus its his home race. Red Bull have come on a lot and the car is much improved although there are still some questions marks over it which is the only thing I can put this price down to but Kovalainen is a new driver in a car that looks like its struggling a bit. Renault should do OK this season but I think they are going to struggle at the start.

As its the first race I am only going to bet on the last of those 3. I do like the look of the first one but its too early to be going nuts and Hamilton is still too much of an unknown for the second one at that price. The third one is a strange un. 5/6 the pair with 5 cars between them is plenty even though the red bull car still appears to be a bit dodgy. I typed this up as I was looking into it so I'll just leave the other two up there.

3pts on M Webber to bt H Kovalainen @ 1.83 on ladbrokes.
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Old 17-03-2007, 19:06
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Re: F1 07/08

Hi Wazik,


Been following F1 for some years now but I am no expert. Btw, great article from sportinglife and I've chosen to bet a little (1/10) on Lewis Hamilton to beat Nick Heidfield 1.66 @bet365

Cheers & good luck to our bets and a profitable season of F1 .
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Old 07-04-2007, 15:51
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Re: F1 07/08

First bet went down after Webber pitted from 7th or 8th and somehow came back out in 16th. I am still not sure what happened.

The second race of the season looks to be an entertaining one and as much as I am looking forward to it I am really struggling to find a match bet I fancy taking on. Theres a few I have looked into as follows. This track is one of the most challenging due to the heat and the possibility of rain, when it rains out there its a proper monsoon. Add the super fast corners and it could get pretty messy.

I was looking for an opportunity to take on Kovalainen again as he looked wild in his first race, his boss describing his race as "a load of rubbish". Cant do much for the confidence of a newbie really and he looked a bit dodgy in qualifing again. Problem is there isnt really a bet I would be very confident of taking him on with. Ladbrokes match him against Coultard who doesnt have the most reliable car and bet365 and blue square have him against Fisi both at 1.72 which is the one I fancied but Fisi has looked a bit out of sorts so I am leaving it alone. I would have taken him to get beat by one of the Toyotas who are nice and consistent but I dont think it would have been much of a price anyway.

Another one I had a look at was Barrichello to beat Wutrz at 2.62 on Bet365. Barrichello had to swap to the spare car and then had trouble with it and only managed to post one lap time which wasnt enough to get through to Q2 and Wurz had a gearbox problem which the team dont know what caused it so he certainly has reliability worries for the race. They start level on the grid so it is quite a big price but of course theres a reason for it being big and the reason is that the Honda car is simply shite, so its kinda hard to guess how bad the spare one is. The reason I was looking at this bet is that even though the Honda is crap is should be reliable enough to get round with Barrichello in it even if not very quickly, what you have to bear in mind is that Wurtz's teamate is starting from 6th so if the car is ok it does have more speed than the Honda. Its a big price but theres simply too many factors involved for me to be able to work out if its a decent bet or not so I am leaving it along.

I also spotted an intresting one at Expekt who I know nothing about but bumped into the today while searching about. They have Rosberg (starting 6th) to beat Wurz (starting 20th as per gearbox above) They drive for the same team so have very similar setups. They are offering 1.35 for Rosberg to beat him. Barring Rosberg crashing or having his car fail I cant see how its really possible. Of course it is possible that he does crash or have reliabiltiy issues but looks a cert to me. At this circuit anything can happen and I aint willing to risk a large % of my bankroll at 1.35 to make it worthwhile punting.

So no match bets this round but I have had a bet. I have taken Massa to win the race at 2.04 on betfair. Going in to qualifing he looked the man to beat and he nicked pole from Alonso at the last possible moment. Raiikonen is using the same engine he had in Australia, Ferrari could have replaced it but after testing decided it was ok even though it was overheating in Australia and Raiikonen has said he is not 100% happy with the car.

Alonso starts 2nd, Raiikonen in 3rd and Hamilton in 4th and from qualifing they all looked to have very similar pace, Hamilton was up with Raiikonen but lost some time on his qualifing lap when he eased off due to some rain.

While these 3 are battling it out I could see Massa using the speed advantage he seems to have to open up a bit of a gap. It also looks like Raiikonen is fuelled for a lap or two more than him and Hamilton carrying a bit more than Alonso. If Massa can open a gap then him and Alonso should pit on the same lap with Raiikonen and Hamilton carrying on for 3 or 4 laps then pitting at the same time which means that if it all goes to plan Massa should be in front once Raiikonen and Hamilton have pitted and if he has got a lead on Alonso when the front 2 pit then those extra 3 or 4 flying laps should mean that the other two have caught up with Alonso if he got away from them or possibly even pass him.

This is assuming that I am correct in thinking that Raiikonen and Hamilton have been fueled a little bit more although in Australia it was Alonso that had a few laps more than Hamilton which ultimately made the difference between the two after Hamilton was ahead of him for 2/3 of the race.

Even if I am not correct with the above thinking 2.04 looks like a good bet for Massa to me who needs maximimum points after the setback in the first race and will be pushing hard to make sure he wins this one. I have had 2 points on him.
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Old 07-04-2007, 18:33
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Re: F1 07/08

Cracking write up there Wazik

Very interesting.

They are offering 1.30 on Rosberg to beat him. So no bet now.

Good luck with Massa tomorrow
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Old 08-04-2007, 06:06
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Re: F1 07/08

excellent this starts at 10 to 8 i believe. This snooker, footie, golf, what a weekend
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Old 08-04-2007, 06:07
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Re: F1 07/08

tell me if anyon e needs to get a stream for it and ill have a look. ITV still got it?
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Old 14-04-2007, 21:15
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Re: F1 07/08

A bit frustrated with last week. I read the race correctly but Massa didnt do what he was supposed to. He looked similar to when he just joined Ferrari, under pressure and prone to mistakes, hadnt seen that side of him for a while. At the price though it was the right bet and after watching the race I feel it was a good price so I dont have any complaints.

This week looks like it could be another intresting one with the top two teams fighting it out again. After watching the qualifing I was hoping for a nice price on Alonso to beat Hamilton as it looks like Hamilton is running much lighter than his team mate, unfortunately the bookies noticed that as well and the best price I can find is 1.72 at Blue Square which I am not taking. Theres a few bets that intrest me this weekend and I'll put them up as I look through them....

The Ferraris are starting on the right side of the track tommorow and that should give them a slight advantage in the long run to the first corner but Alonso has won this race the last 2 years, last year from the same position he starts tommorow 4th. So far this season the McLarens have managed to get the jump on the Ferraris early on so not really making any assumptions about the start tommorow.

Position 7th to 13th look intresting and there could be some big battles going on. In 7th and 8th you have Fisichella and Webber who are out in front of this little group but are there for the taking, behind them you have Trulli who isnt super speedy but is a strong consistent driver who will be getting no end of hassle from the 2 Williams right behind him . Bringing up the rear of this little group is Kovalinnen and then Davidson who I think could make up a few places early on.

Firstly Davidson to bt Sato @ 1.66 skybet
Davidson starting 13th and Sato back in 17th same team so essentially the same car. I have been quite impressed with Davidson so far and he had a solid race last weekend. Sato seems to have improved over the last year and isnt quite as mental as he used to be which is a shame cos he was fun to watch. To be fair to Sato he reckons he will be faster in the race than he was in qualifing but he will get held up by the pair of Hondas in front and then he has Schumacher to get past before he is going to be racing davidson. I think 1.66 is a pretty decent price considering Davidson is going to get a start on Sato as hes stuck behind the Hondas.

Alonso to bt Raikkonnen @ 2.2 laddies and betdirect
Spent a bit of time looking at this one and while the price is attractive I think I am going to leave it alone. Raikkonnen was subdued last weekend due to the engine not being 100% (as I mentioned and failed to profit from ) and looked steady this round in qualifing. I am not sure but I am guessing that he and Alonso are again running slightly heavier than the front 2 which could mean the decider of this race comes down to which of them has that extra 2 laps of fuel and who comes out the pits in to clear track or traffic. You could argue that Raikkonen has the advantage over Alonso in the starting positions even though they start side by side, I would have priced this as 5/6 the pair so 2.2 looks like a value bet to me.

Kubica to beat Heidfeld @ 2.4 at betsafe and 2.37 at skybet
Same team, same car, same row on the grid, ok Heidfeld has the better side and chances are they wont go to war on the first corner rather they will protect their places from the group coming behind. I like Kubica, hes fast and hes been unlucky so far this season, Hiedfeld has been superb so far this year and this is the sort of bet I usually just leave alone as theres not much in it and prices are usually 5/6 the pair. However 2.4 is quite a bit bigger than 5/6 and I cant see how its priced up like this other than on results so far this season. Kubica retired in the 1st race due to a gearbox problem and finished last in the 2nd due to a gearbox problem. Of course there are concerns that he has reliability issues and his teamate does not but they have the same gearbox so in reality hes been priced higher due to his misfortune. I am not taking this bet as I dont know much about the problem he has had with the gearbox and the fact its happened twice in enough to put me off.

Webber to beat Coulthard @ 1.35 @ expekt
Similar to the "certainity" I posted last week, where I said that Rosberg could only lose to Wurtz if Rosberg retired...of course Rosberg duely retired and Wurtz won the match bet. Absolutely no doubt Rosberg wins if he finishes. Here Webber starts 8th and Coulthard from 21st. If both Red bulls have no reliability issues and neither crash then it cant lose however as we learned last week its never that simple and Webbers car is more prone to issues than Rosbergs....the other thing that makes this appealing is that Coulthards car is much more likely to break than Webbers. Tempting if I was having a double.

Trulli to bt Kovalainen @ 1.72 ladbrokes
As I mentioned last week I was looking for an opportunity to take on Kovalainen as he looks a bit wild, he had a better race last week but I am still not convinced. Trulli is solid and experienced and even better than that between him and Kovalainen he has two Williams cars which are fast. If he can hold them off for a while then hopefully that should buy Davidson some time to get stuck in to Kovalainen and put him under some pressure. Its not a huge price but it looks good to me.

OK shortlist reviewed and I am having a bash at
Davidson to bt Sato
Trulli to bt Kovalainen

2 point double which pays 2.63 at Ladbrokes (pays 2.69 at skybet but this saves me depositing and I am lazy :wasntme)
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Old 14-04-2007, 21:39
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Re: F1 07/08

Cool Waz...will join you on that one and have some F1 sprinkled on my cornflakes tomorro morn.
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Old 21-04-2007, 11:28
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Re: F1 07/08

Back on track after last week getting the double. Davidson had a great first section of the race and was unlucky to come out the pits in to traffic, I am not sure what happened as he looked set to pick up a point in 8th but ended up finishing last, he must have had some issues with the car, Sato retired so its all good. Trulli only finished 2 places ahead of Kovalainnen but was never really in danger of losing to him and I read that little section of the field pretty much right.

Out of the other bets I posted up Raikkonen beat Alonso who never had the pace, need to find out exactly why that was as he ended up getting passed by Hiedfeld who had a complete stormer beating the other one I posted up in the form of Kubica by around a whopping 30 seconds. Both theses picks I wasnt hugely confident about just looked value. I dont know what Coultard did last week but from 21st he looked like he might score some points and get past Webber who was suffering from Aerodynamic probs until the curse of the Red Bull hit hard and he retired one or two laps before Webber bringing home the last match bet.

So 3 out of 5 picks last week with the 2 losers the ones I was least confident about and more importantly the 2 I had the cash on winning. Back on track and unfortunately the next race isnt until the 15th of May.

Bank
Starting bank: £300
Current bank: £282.6
Bets: 3 (7 points)
Winners: 1/3
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Old 21-04-2007, 21:59
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Re: F1 07/08

Oops...forgot to thank you for that Waz. I was on betfair who had the Davidson match bet but not the other, so I took Trulli to get a point instead
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Old 12-05-2007, 18:56
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Re: F1 07/08

Barcelona this weekend and its a notoriously difficult place to overtake. They have changed the circuit this year by taking out the last corner and replacing it with a sort of chicane. It doesnt really seem like an improvement and seems as if it may just slow cars down.

Looking at last years results and only one person in the top 4 finishers managed to finish higher than they started, Michael Schumacher improving from 3rd to 2nd.

Villeneuve did manage to come from 22nd (the back) to finish in 12th and Coultard from 21st to 14th, bear in mind though that there were 6 retirements so they only really made up 4 and 1 places. Apart from that nobody made more than 2 places of improvements and I cant see it being much different tommorow.

Same as last week in that I am pretty going to leave the top 4 to battle it out, without some kind of idea of what fuel loads they have theres really not much between any of them.

The middle group is intresting again, Kubica and Hiedfeld have shown so far that they are clearly the 3rd fastest team out there and their target will be to secure 5th and 6th place and if possible push the top 4. I was hoping for a Hiedfeld to beat Trulli match bet as I would have been all over it but its not available as far as I can see. If Heidfeld gets past Trulli early theres going to be a battle between 7th and 12th with Trulli, Kovalainnen, Coulthard, Fisi, Rosberg and Barrichello at the back of the group.

Thing that makes it more intresting is that theres 2 drivers at the back due to technical problems that are much faster than whats between them and around 8-12th place, Schumacher and Webber. You could argue that Wurtz could make up places as well as he got stuck in traffic in qualifing and his teammate managed 11th. The problem for these guys with the speed at the back is where are they going to get past all the traffic.

As usual I am gonna put everything in here as I go through it.

Coulthard to beat Rosberg 1.8 @ BS
Coulthard is in great form so far this season and has been let down by problems with the car, if he could have finished the last race it would have a classic comeback. The Red Bull car has a new gearbox and looking at the evidence they have improved this car yet again. Whether they have improved the reliability is the worry. Coulthard starts in 9th directly in front of Rosberg in 11th and will be looking ahead at Kovalinnen, Trulli and Hiedfeld rather than worrying about getting passed. This is an idea sort of race for someone with his experience, not getting frustrated but just bidding his time. I like this bet, only thing putting me off is the recent reliabiltiy of the Red Bull car which Webber didnt help by having an issue in the morning and then a different one during qualifing. Saying that though Coulthard was dissapointed with his position in 9th.

Trulli to beat Rosberg 1.67 @ betdirect.net
Same as above really except that Trulli starts from 6th as apose to 9th for Coulthard. I think Coulthard is more likely to make up places rather than concede them but I am not so sure about Trulli. Its possible that Hiedfeld can get past him and then he is going to be under pressure from Kovalinnen and Coulthard. If that happened only Fisi would seperate these two. Trulli should win this but I would be more confident taking Coulthard at a bigger price.

Coultard to beat Webber 1.5 @ Expekt.com
I dont know anything about Expekt but I have been watching their match bets in the previous races as they looked like they might get out of line at some point. This week is the week! See above for what I think about Coulthard. Webber had 2 problems on the day of qualifing and starts from 19th compared to 9th for Coulthard. I have no doubt Webber is faster than a lot of cars in front of him but hes going to struggle to make up 10 places. Add to that the fact that he has reliability issues which doesnt count for as much here as Coulthard is the same team. In general reliability has been good so far this year with retirements at 3, 5 and 7 for each race so far but even if 7 people retire that leaves Webber with 3 places to make up. Theres some decent drivers between them as well Schumacher, Davidson, Wurtz, Rosberg and Fisichella. The only worry with this is Coulthard hasnt actually finished a race yet but with Webber in the same car and also having problems I am willing to have a bash.

1.5 looks like a max bet to me, I just hope they have a deposit bonus....hmm they do, twenty five quid bonus that you have to roll over 5 times. Better than nothing I spose.

I do like that Coulthard to beat Rosberg bet but going for max bet on Coulthard to beat Webber and dont really want to place 2 bets on Coulthard just in case something does go tits up. Shorter price but the chance of it coming in makes up for that 0.3 I reckon, 1.5 looks pretty far from what it should be.

5 points Coulthard to beat Webber.
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Old 19-05-2007, 10:28