GAA Weekend 16th/17th July 2011

[Suir Thing]

Sat 16th July
All Ireland SFC Qualifiers, Round 3.
19:00 Antrim (19/4) v (10) Down (3/10)
19:00 Limerick (4/11) v (10) Waterford (3)
19:00 Meath (9/4) v (8) Kildare (8/15)
Round 2 Replay
19:00 Wicklow (23/10) v (42/5) Armagh (17/35)



Sun 17th July
Connacht Senior Football Final
14:00 Roscommon (13/8) v (38/5) Mayo (8/11)


Ulster Senior Football Final
16:00 Donegal (5/6) v (39/5) Derry (17/10)

[smk415]

All Ireland SFC Qualifiers, Round 3.
19:00 Antrim (19/4) v (10) Down (3/10)
Cant see Down being beaten

19:00 Limerick (4/11) v (10) Waterford (3)
Have a funny feeling that Waterford will sneak this

19:00 Meath (9/4) v (8) Kildare (8/15)
going for Meath

Round 2 Replay
19:00 Wicklow (23/10) v (42/5) Armagh (17/35)
Armagh wont slip up again.


Sun 17th July
Connacht Senior Football Final
14:00 Roscommon (13/8) v (38/5) Mayo (8/11)
Mayo its theirs to lose. I am not going to bet on this one.

Ulster Senior Football Final
16:00 Donegal (5/6) v (39/5) Derry (17/10)
Interesting game this one but Donegal to shade it

[Cinny]

Antrim in my opinion are value to defeat Down. Down away from home have been very unconvincing this term. Armagh defeated Down in the 1st round of the Ulster Championship. Following this defeat Down scrapped past Clare by a point who are a poor Division 4 side. Antrim were made sweat for their win at the weekend against Carlow but were ahead by 4 points in the closing stages. Antrim +5 with Bet365 for me with a small punt on the outright win.

[Suir Thing]

Antrim v Down.
Even though Down are hot favourites and were runners up in last years All Ireland final, I would not be running out to back them, after what I have seen of late. They huffed and puffed to get past Clare, beating them by only a point and for a while it looked as if Leitrim would cause an upset last Saturday, Leitrim led early in the second half but then ran out of steam. Clare and Leitrim are really 2 poor football sides, so its hard to judge Down's form on them games. Antrim on the other have not been convincing either, after a good win against Westmeath they struggled to beat Carlow last weekend, Carlow playing out the game with 14 men and still managed to come back only to fall short by a point. Down should be winning this and it may very well be the time when their season comes to life, but not a banker, I will probably add them into a small stakes accum.


Limerick v Waterford.
Both side traded blows in DIV 3 last season, they met at Dungarvan in Feb, which Waterford won 2-08 to 0-08, both sides ended up at the bottom of that Div too and were relegated, so they are of the same standard, both Limerick and Waterford were easily beaten by Kerry & Cork respectively in the first round of the championship too. But going on recent form Limerick look strongest, good win against Offaly last week, Waterford on the other hand have only beaten London, who apart from a recent bit of publicity they got for beating Fermanagh a Div 4 side like themselves are rubbish.
London had a man sent off late in the second half and another man early in the second half, giving them little chance of beating Waterford.
The week before Waterford and Limerick played their last round of the qualifiers, Limerick easily beat Waterford in a challenge. With this game played in the Gaelic grounds to add, I can see nothing but a Limerick win here.


Meath v Kildare.
If you look at the paths both team have taken to arrive at this point first :

22.05.11 Kildare 0-12 Wicklow 0-05
05.06.11 Kildare 0-16 Meath 0-10 (Leinster QF)
(12.06.11 Carlow 0-14 Louth 0-13 Leinster QF)
26.06.11 Dublin 1-12 Kildare 1-11
Qualifiers
25.06.11 Louth 2-08 Meath 5-08
09.06.11 Meath 0-11 Galway 0-10
09.06.11 Laois 0-10 Kildare 3-16

It is seen clearly that Kildare have been up against better opposition and have been playing better, and getting stronger. Meath on the other hand have been playing in fits and starts against poor opposition. Kildare who look super fit, are stronger and have the better footballers will come out on top as they did when they met in the league in March and also in the Leinster quarter final.

Wicklow v Armagh.
Wicklow who are a mediocre Div 4 side travelling to Armagh last week and getting a draw even after extra time was a shock and a great result for the bookies too! They had Armagh chasing the game and it was a case of Armagh being lucky to get the draw.
Armagh must have know that the main danger was Seanie Furlong and they failed to do anything about this, leaving him score 2 goals. I believe the underdog gets one shot at causing an upset and if he does not take this the first time around, there is no fairy tale ending, Wicklow have shown their hand to a better footballing team, Armagh will be prepared, and Wicklow will have no 5 point lead at half time this time around. The bookies even though Wicklow came so close and are at home in this game still make Armagh the clear favourites @ 4/9. I expect Armagh to win this one with a bit to spare.




Sunday.

Roscommon v Mayo.
I know little about these sides to comment, All I do know, is that the form book does not apply at all in Connacht, therefore I will leave this to someone from the West of Ireland to comment, maybe gallimh has an opinion.


Donegal v Derry.
Going on league and championship form you would have to back Donegal, Derry losing Eoin Bradley is certainly a blow to them too. The only thing that makes me cautious here is that Donegal never make a good betting proposition, when you expect them to win and when all pointers says they should......they flop! At the moment they are short at 4/6 as they have been cut another bit due to the news on Eoin Bradley. Its now or never for Donegal and I expect them to prevail but will only add them to my small speculative accum.



Limerick, Kildare & Armagh treble @ 15/8 Boyles


Limerick, Kildare, Armagh, Down, Mayo, Donegal, small stakes accum, @ 9/1 Paddy Power

Did bet alot in the past with StanJames but they seem to be after tightening the belt of late as their GAA prices are poor.

[Suir Thing]

Cinny, being a Newry man you must have some inside info from the Down camp seeing that you are going for Antrim, being in close proximity to Armagh too you have refrained from commenting on their game v Wicklow, any views on that one.
and is smk415 a Meath man

Another thing that has a bearing on some of these games is what they are playing for, All the teams involved this weekend have a chance of winning an all Ireland, but in reality some deep down know that they are the also rans. A look at the games may show what is at stake.


Limerick v Waterford. Both these teams know that they havn't a hope in hell of winning an all Ireland or getting into the final, a bit of a dead rubber really, Limerick tho may think they are at least good enough to make the last 8 and possibily make an appearance at Croke Park. Waterford on the other hand traditionally lose interest before the qualifiers start, the players go back training with their clubs, this is evident again this year as the centre back Shane Briggs went on holidays to Australia and John Hurney one of their best players pulled himself off the panel. Both would have more interest in their club, Ballinacourty now. Including what I mentoned in a previous post this is why I believe Limerick will be winning this one.

Antrim v Down. Down having been in last years final would still have big ideas of going one better this year, they led Cork in that final last year before the Cork comeback. Although Down have huffed and puffed this year, they do not see their own poor displays like we see them. Antrim after a very poor league being relegated from Div 2, know they are up against it and are not contenders, BUT this is a local derby and they have a point to prove as Down have had them in the shade long enough.

Meath v Kildare. Meath must know themselves that they are just not good enough, but they have a bit of tradition at winning All Irelands and that counts for alot. Tho the team they have together now is nothing like the teams of the past, Meath said losing Graham Geraghty through injury was a big blow, thats a worry if they are depending on a 38 year old player! they is also a doubt on Kevin Reilly & Cian Ward for Saturday night, Meath can't afford to have their regulars missing. Kildare are brimming with confidence, they strongly believe that they are serious contenders for an all Ireland, the county is desperate to win something and at the moment they look good. They are priced up as 4th favourites to lift Sam. The only little concern is that they start games slowly, they got to get over this. But this weekend if I was to choose one team that will definetly win, I would go for Kildare.

Wicklow v Armagh. Two teams that are not contenders. Armagh might dispute this and say they are a good team but have been unlucky, if your good enough you make your own luck. The last thing Armagh needed if they were to get further along September road was an this extra game. Armagh have a point to prove here as they have taken a bit of flak for their tame performance last week and if they can contain the Wicklow forwards, which I think they will do they will prevail. You could say that this game has the 'dead rubber' tag also only that Wicklow have something to play for, they will play in front of a full house at home and they will want to give Micko a good send off this year and a good retirement present would be a day in Croke Park, but they can only dream about this as Armagh should get their act together and win this one.

The 2 finals are a totally different game, to be provincial champions has importance. Especially in Ulster. The best team more often than not are Ulster Champions and this has status attached to it. In Connacht you could end up in the final by luck and win it with a bit of luck, no one in the rest of the country really notices either. The rest of the country will know who the Ulster champions as a serious challenge for Sam comes from Ulster.

The winner of these 2 finals naturally has what regarded as the easier passage to the final, but all is not lost for the loser as he will get a second chance. Unlike Saturdays games, when you lose your out. All 4 teams, Donegal, Derry, Mayo & Roscommon would have serious ambitions to make a challenge for the all Ireland.
Donegal probably the most serious of all mentioned, having topped league 2 earlier this year and playing well, brimming with confidence, they must feel they are contenders. Ulster football has never looked so weak with many years, the wheel has turned to favour the southern teams again. Donegal will not get a better chance to win an Ulster title, its time for them to stop talking about it, 1992 is a long time ago now.

Going on what I have mentioned above, Kildare & Donegal are the teams that stand out, teams with purpose and a mission
Donegal 4/6 + Kildare 8/15 best priced with PaddyPower



All Ireland Football - Outright Betting
EW: 1/3 1,2
Kerry 2/1
Cork 3/1
Dublin 7/2
Tyrone 11/1
Kildare 11/1
Donegal 16/1
Down 25/1
Derry 25/1
Mayo 33/1
Meath 33/1
Wexford 33/1
Roscommon 50/1
Armagh 66/1
Limerick 200/1
Wicklow 400/1
Antrim 400/1
Waterford 750/1

Prices above from Boylesports.

[InishGael]

Great write ups again Suir. Didn't get chance to give my detailed thoughts for weekend. And heading out to club game now so very quickly - can't see past Down, Limerick, Kildare & Armagh this evening. Usually one surprise and if there is to be one - prob gonna be in Aughrim rather than anywhere else.
Good luck!

[Suir Thing]

Thanks for that Inish, good to see someone else with a bit of input and the good news is........ that you and I were spot on

Klidare 2-11 Meath 0-14
Armagh 2-09 Wicklow 0-10
Down 3-13 Antrim 0-10
Limerick 0-14 Waterford 0-09


Was out playing a club game myself, Junior B Hurling! just in and checked the results , back out for pints now, if Donegal can do it tomorrow they will even make it a better weekend.

Boylesports, I told you that was only a loan! Suir Thing is back !

[Suir Thing]

Donegal 1-11 Derry 0-08
Mayo 0-13 Roscommon 0-11

Todays results have topped off a perfect weekend, all predictions and bets as previously posted came up

- Limerick, Kildare & Armagh treble @ 15/8 Boyles
- Limerick, Kildare, Armagh, Down, Mayo, Donegal, small stakes accum, @ 9/1 Paddy Power
- Donegal 4/6 + Kildare 8/15 best priced with PaddyPower