F1: Canadian Grand Prix

[Quandram]

So, back on the horse with a post that will likely offer no bet... Why not.

Canadian GP this weekend, Practice 3 about to start and Qualifying @ 18:00 BST.

This post is really just to urge caution to anyone that fancied betting on the qualifying... it really wont be that important.

It's not like Monaco where overtaking is difficult, there are good opertunities around the circuit and there are two DRS zones so expect plenty of passes during the race. Pit stops are not that costly either with the estimated time loss for an entire stop being only 15 seconds. Those two facts combined make it far more important to keep enough sets of the quick tyre fresh than it is to stick your motor on pole.

This isn't to suggest that the guys wont be trying... merely that if they are top 3 and unlikely to drop too far from that area they are unlikely to burn another set of tyres trying to improve 1 or 2 spots.

Worth noting also that this is a circuit that doesn't typically suit Red Bulls style of car being far more about engine power rather than down-force. McLaren will fancy their chances here but they should have enough nouse to know that it's not worth an extra set of tyres to just give Red Bull a bloody nose in qualifying.

I say should...

Hopefully I'll find something that tickles my fancy for the race but qualifying is a no go for me.

[Gavster]

Not far wrong there Quandram. This is regrettably the first race I'll be able to watch this season due to work commitments. I hate not being able to bet on it.

I reckon we'll be looking at a Red Bull pole, but with McLaren/Ferrari posing a major threat during the race.

Sky usually have a "leading after the first lap" market, which could be interesting if Hamilton or Alonso are 2nd on the grid.

[Tricky]

Originally Posted by Gavster

Sky usually have a "leading after the first lap" market, which could be interesting if Hamilton or Alonso are 2nd on the grid.

That's the market that has caught my eye with the fast starting alonso 2nd on the grid priced at 4.5 with skybet to lead at the first lap. It's a long run to the first corner in Canada, so though Alonso starts on the dirty side of the track he should have a decent chance of getting past vettel.

[Gavster]

I seem to remember that Mclaren have partially set their cars up for wet weather, which was mocked by some teams. No doubt it cost them on the straights for yesterday's qualifying session, but given the risk of rain for today's race, it may turn into a slight advantage. Don't forget that the safety car will take to the track once or twice, so the field won't be hugely spread.

A mclaren in the top 3 is likely if it rains.

[Quandram]

I recall the same thing about the McLarens Gav and they have two of the better wet weather drivers so it's a more than fair shout. I have just read something suggesting that the other teams can change some aspects of the cars as the FIA have declared a "change in climactic conditions" meaning, apparently, they can change brake and radiator ducting. I'm sure the McLaren will have more setup than that though otherwise they wouldn't have bothered.

Worth mentioning that just because we heard McLaren did set up this way... doesn't mean others didn't.

I like the Alonso 1st lap leader... that price long gone but he has started well in the last few and the KERS benefit of having a full system rather than Red Bulls reduced system certainly helps off the start. Also quite wide in to first corner and a few viable lines so there is room to get the move done.

[Gavster]

It's worth pointing out that DRS will be cancelled during the wet, so it'll be down to KERS, driver ability and being on the right rubber.

I seem to remember the commentators suggesting that both Mercedes, Red Bull and possibly Ferrari not applying a wet set up - so there is a definite advantage there. 5Live were suggesting a few tenths per lap, which given McLaren's race pace against their rivals is quite considerable!

[Frodo]

With the wet conditions and the possibility of safety cars I think you have to look at a couple of the bigger numbers. In Barcelona Ferrari had trouble keeping heat in when the temperature drop, I wonder if this applies in the wet. It's enough to leave them off the following list.

I may be missing a few

Quick in the wet - Hamilton, Vettel, Sutil, Schumacher (?)
Decent in the wet and capable of out smarting everyone - Webber, Button, Heidfeld, Barrichello

Sounds to me like McLaren and Williams have gone with a set more geared to the wet.

Not taken owt yet but just picking out a few prices.....

Heidfeld podium 28/1
Webber win 23/1
Barrichello to gain most places 8/1 - pts 11/5
Hamilton win 11/2
Button e/w 14/1

[Gavster]

Welcome back Frodo, not seen you on here in yonks.

Good picks there!

[Quandram]

Even if i had been tempted by reduced odds on Alonso 1st lap the current rain and chance of starting under safety car has dismissed that... just two bets for me before the off although I find it likely I'll be sitting over the in-running markets

Under 17.5 cars classified. 6pts @ 2.02 @ Bwin

Price is out of line as it's closer to 1.8 elsewhere... actually BWin have just changed it down to 1.75 so that's gone now... value shot

Sutil vs Kobayashi spread match @ SpIndex

I'm a big Kobay fan but the notion of Canada, wet weather and his own style makes me think he may not quite navigate it all the way around. Sutil is decent in the wet and there's not much to pick between the cars so even if Kobay does make it through the race this has a decent shot.

[Quandram]

Hmmm... Vettel says full wets. Earlier BBC said McLarens went to grid on inters

[Frodo]

Cheers Gav. I always like a good wet race. Hopefully it'll dry up a bit during the race, then tip it down.

The Sutil v Kobayashi bet looks a decent one assuming Sutil can get through the first corner. Sutil proven in the wet and the Force India appears to be faster this weekend relative to the Sauber.

Have taken all but the Barrichello bet. Just over 2/1 for points loses it's appeal when I'm on bigger numbers!!

[Quandram]

Word of caution about the most places gained... Jaime Alguersuari will be starting from the pit. Giving him probably a 6 car head start.

[Frodo]

The market takes it based on where they were in qualifying regardless of where they start the race. Not done it anyway.

Get the bloody safety car in!!!!

[Quandram]

Lewis is a bloody liability

[Quandram]

That message again Lewis is a bloody liability