Australian Grand Prix

[Gavster]

Here we are at the start of another Formula One season. Funny that people say how predictable F1 is, yet I have absolutely no idea who'll win the opening race in Australia. What was predictable however, was the usual controversy. Thank God F1 didn't travel to Bahrain, not only is it the dreariest circuit on the calendar, it's also staged in a country with an authoritarian regime where F1 clearly shouldn't be part of the PR mechanism.

For those of you who have had time to follow the F1 testing season, well done, you'll know much more than I. All I know is that predictably, Mclaren have bitten off more than they can chew... or have they? A few mutterings over the last few days suggest they aren't that far off the pace. Most F1 fans know that pre-season is a game of poker with all teams keeping their hands very close to their chest, and the front runners are masters at it. Don't forget Mclaren had the best KERS system during 2008/09; that could be pivotal. As could today's murmurings from Whitmarsh suggesting they've found a second a lap. It's all designed to leave us fans and punters with a lesser grasp of reality than Gaddafi.



So down under we go to a bunch of moaning Aussies who don't even want the race - and they call us whinging poms!

Well this week there's some lucky money to be won - much of it I have already missed because of being too busy at work.

If you want value, go with Mercedes. The team initially announced that they were in for another troubled season, but they've been very vocal over the last few weeks with Schumi suggesting he'll be challenging for race wins.

Mercedes top scoring team - 8.0
Shumi/Rosberg Pole - 17.0 e/w 1/5 1-3 @ Bet365
Shumi/Rosberg Podium finish - 4.0 @ Bet365

Heidfeld has been showing some decent form in the Renault too, even though I'd have put Hulkenberg in Kubica's seat as a preference. Heidfeld Top 6 finish - 2.5 @ William Hill.

Again, I can't escape some Mclaren bias. A Hamilton win in Australia has odds of about 11.0 Button, who has won two years running 18.0 and a Mclaren car 7.0. That's some serious value, which accepted, is based on negative press. Don't forget Mclaren punched way above their weight last year and this car is decent. Not all of the gizmos have been presented yet


Further comments and odds as and when I'm about.

[Gavster]

Just another note, the Williams is looking decent over race distance. There's some decent value on Pablo Maldonado finishing in the points, available @ 3.25 with Stan James. If you think he's capable of a top-6 finish first time out, then you can get odds of at least 12.0, but I doubt he'll be that good. He is a pay-driver, so there is some risk attached to the points finish.

[Gavster]

Right, with qualifying out of the way, we now know where we stand in terms of genuine pace. Glad to see that my faith in Mclaren has so far been repaid.

Mercedes wasn't really a shock. I think many of their announcements and predictions were just PR talk; something to keep the sponsors happy. However, I can still see Rosberg gaining places during the race, especially given the unpredictability of the tyres this year.

Just on that subject, we could see the odd unfamiliar face at the front tomorrow, so backing drivers like Petrov, Buemi and Kobayashi wouldn't be a bad option.

What happened to Barrichello and Heidfeld? Heidfeld has been running well upto now, then all of a sudden he can't put a lap together. I said they should've gone with Hulkenberg!

Might look for some more value later, as not all of the markets are active right now.